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Iran is currently pondering President Donald Trump’s offer to talks on a new nuclear deal. The answer depends on one important factor. Whether you believe that it will come out of undefeated.
Last week, Trump sent an unusual letter to Iran’s top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggesting negotiations on a new nuclear deal. Once the two-month ultimatum has been agreed, a source familiar with the letter told CNN.
The communication included a “threatening stance” but clearly provided “several opportunities” for Iran, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragich said on Thursday that a response would come “in the coming days.”
Sources said Trump envoy Steve Witkov delivered a letter to the UAE president last week, with UAE officials passing it on to Iranians.
In an interview with journalist Tucker Carlson over the weekend, Witkoff provided insight into the content of the letter.
“It roughly said: I am the President of Peace, that’s what I want. We have no reason to do this militarily. We should resolve the misconception. We need to create a validation program so that no one is worried about the weaponization of your nuclear material.
This month, the US launched a strike as one of the few remaining Iranian allied militias pose a strong threat to its interests. The attack on Yemen’s Hooti rebels served as a warning shot – a preview of what Iran himself could face if he refused to cooperate, US national security adviser Mike Waltz told ABC News.
With Iran’s economy free fall, grasping of the region slipping, and public outrage rising, US officials may see a great opportunity to force Tehran’s hands by tightening their economic ropes and undeniably clarifying the threat of military action.
However, experts warn that it’s not that easy. Iran is deeply wary of appearing weak, and the last thing it hopes is to be considered surrender to Trump.
“This is a very fluid moment,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programmes in London, Chatham House think tank, told CNN. “There’s a range of miscalculation, there’s a range of crisis, there’s a range of military attacks on Iran.”
Tehran has repeatedly refused to negotiate in-person negotiations with the US over the past few weeks on a potential nuclear deal, saying that the guns will point to their heads and not come to the table, fearing Washington will revive its commitment, as he did seven years ago during Trump’s first presidential term.
In response to Trump’s recent letter, Iran will consider “both threats and opportunities,” said Araguchi, who vowed not to negotiate “under increasing pressure and threats or sanctions.”
He said.
For Iran, succumbing to Trump’s maximalist approach of stacking more sanctions and repeatedly threatening military action is equivalent to surrender, and is in a position that he doesn’t want to entertain, experts said.
“Iranians are trying to deny Trump because they are so weak that they are trying to deny him because they are actually at the table,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington, D.C.-based Quincy Institute, told CNN.
Iranian leaders have dismissed the idea of talking to Washington. President Masuud Pezeshkian said this month that Iran “provokes no more humiliation than anyone else.”
“I won’t be negotiating with you. Do whatever you want,” Pezeschkian quoted as saying by the Tehran Times.
It comes after the Islamic Republic revived Iran’s biggest pressure campaign in February, aimed at preventing the construction of nuclear weapons.
According to the memorandum, the US will also “run a campaign aimed at driving Iran’s oil exports to zero,” and will deny inter-Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles.
However, analysts say that concessions to Washington are considered too dangerous for Tehran under the current geopolitical climate, so Trump’s efforts to arm Iranians may not have the desired effect.
From an Iranian perspective, “the risk of surrender is even more dangerous and I don’t think the Trump administration has a full grasp of it,” Parsi said.
Since Israel launched the war in Gaza on October 7, 2023, Iran and Israel have traded two rounds of attacks.
The Israeli decapitation campaign against Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the war in Gaza against Hamas have significantly weakened the impact of the Islamic Republic in the region.
That nuclear program is now one of the final points of its leverage. In December, UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi told Reuters that Iran “dramatically” accelerated uranium enrichment to up to 60% purity, near the weapons grade of about 90%. In January, Grossi warned once again that Iran was “pushing the gasoline pedal” with uranium enrichment.
Iran claims that its nuclear program is peace.
Experts point to the deep embracing mistrust of Washington’s credibility as a key factor behind their reluctance to work with Trump on the New Deal.
The controversial exchange between President Trump and Ukrainian President Voldy Mie Zelensky in the oval office last month only strengthened that idea of the Islamic Republic.
During the exchange, Trump and Vice President JD Vance denounced the Ukrainian president in front of international media.
“Zelensky was asked to say ‘Thank you.’ After Ukraine says “there is no card” and “respect”, Americans will respect Americans after seeking security guarantees,” the Tehran Times wrote, citing the reason for refusing to talk to Peshshkian Trump.
“After what you’ve done to Zelensky recently, you should be ashamed of yourself,” Iranian media said Pezeshkian.
From Tehran’s perspective, there is little reason to believe that if Washington can turn his back on his allies, it will maintain his commitment to his enemy. When Trump’s letter gave way to Iran, Khamenei refused to engage with Washington, reminding the world that this was the same US president who retreated from the nuclear deal of a landmark that brokered a world power just three years ago in 2018.
The agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the JCPOA, was intended to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting Western sanctions, thereby preventing Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.
In X’s post this month, Khamenei said Trump was trying to “deceive public opinion” by saying Washington is ready to negotiate.
“How can we negotiate with us when we know that they will not fulfill their commitments?” Khamenei added, “If the goal of entering negotiations is to remove sanctions, then negotiations with this US administration will not result in sanctions being removed.”
More complicated the possibility of new talks between Tehran and Washington is Iran’s domestic politics, with anti-AU hardliners and professional-talking reformers taking power away.
“Conservatives see the opportunity to attack the Pezeshkian regime at this point and assert themselves not only domestically, but perhaps on the nuclear dimension,” Vakir told CNN.
Experts said it is profitable for both the US and Iran to make a deal while they can still do it.
“The biggest point of Iran’s leverage is now, where they are interested in negotiations and Iran can get concessions and sanctions relief during this period,” Vakir said. “The moment Iran is weaponized (the nuclear program), Iran loses its use.”