CNN
–
For weeks, US airstrikes hit Yemen’s Houthi targets, crashing into oil refineries, airports and missile sites, and President Trump has vowed to use “overwhelming force” until it reaches its goal of stopping the US from targeting shipments in the Red Sea.
Houthis launched a campaign in solidarity with the Palestinians when Israel went to war in Gaza in October 2023. The group conducted over 100 attacks and sunk two ships. The results: 70% of merchant transport that once passed through the Red Sea now takes long routes around South Africa.
The US says the campaign is working. National security adviser Mike Waltz said several Hooty leaders were killed.
But every round strike causes more rebellion.
Houthis is what veteran Yemeni watchers call the honey badger of resistance, and refers to a belliger mammal known for its fearless attitude towards predators. Bit by a cobra, they wake up a few minutes later to attack the snake.
Analysts say that as many as 80 Houthi military officers may have been killed, but their military and political leadership senior ranks appear to remain the same. At least some of the missile launch sites. Since mid-March, Houthis has launched 12 ballistic missiles in Israel and barrages of drones and missiles on US naval vessels. Nothing causes any major damage, but the threat remains.
CNN reported on Friday that the total cost of US military for Iran-backed Houthi extremists in Yemen is approaching $1 billion in just under three weeks.
“We’re ready – ammunition, fuel, deployment time,” one official said.
Houthis is threatening to expand its target range to the United Arab Emirates, not the co-cow, which is supporting rival governments to the Houthis in the Yemeni civil war. Similarly, Saudi officials say the Kingdom’s air defense is on alert.
“Dozens of airstrikes on Yemen will not prevent Yemeni forces from fulfilling their religious, moral or humanitarian duties,” a spokesman for Houthi said earlier this week.
There is no doubt that the US campaign has diminished Houthis’ capabilities. Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said the Houches “supposes they have lost a lot of drone manufacturing capabilities, and there appears to be a more effective stoppage of supplies coming through the sea and Oman.
However, history shows that Houthis has a very high tolerance to pain. And the Trump administration’s resolve to eradicate the threat they pose may ultimately require ground attacks.
“Houthis is just at war with First World Armies,” says Knights.
Houthis’ survival capabilities are aided by an elaborate smuggling network that brings missile parts and other equipment. Last year, a survey by the Conflict Weapons Research (CAR) found that it was hidden in one intercepted ship, an artillery rocket, a small turbojet engine, an air frame for a hydrogen fuel cell, and fins.
Such equipment could allow the Houthi UAV to have a larger payload and travel for much longer. It “will greatly expand the potential threat posed by Houthis,” Car reported.
Houthis survived several attacks, which was a Saudi Arabia attack 10 years ago during Yemen’s long presidency, and following recent Israeli, British and US airstrikes.
Ahmed Nagi, senior analyst in Yemen for International Crisis Group, says Israel and the Western countries lack a deep understanding of the Houtis. “Their opaque leadership and internal structure created a lasting gap in intelligence.”
Another Yemeni expert, Elizabeth Kendall, has questioned the end of the US campaign. “The Houches have been bombed tens of thousands of times in the last decade and remain unhindered. So we think that the bombing is largely performance– let’s show the world.
When forced into Houthis, CNN “really, really difficult,” Knights said.
“They are very aggressive moves. The best way to end them forever is to overthrow them, remove them from the capital and remove them from the Red Sea coast.”
Regional diplomacy and analysts say that ultimately, only ground attacks can drive away the Housis, which now controls Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, its major ports, Hodeida and much of North Yemen.
Ahmed Nagi, senior Yemenian analyst at International Crisis Group, says the US is wrong to believe air strikes can bring Houthis backwards. “This approach will fail under the Biden administration and it is unlikely to succeed under the Trump administration.”
“Their logic is shaped by years of war. They see resilience as a form of strength and are driven to prove that they are not easily blocked.”
“The only time I’ve seen Houthis go to negotiation tables and compromises was when threatened by a realistic prospect of defeat on the ground: loss of territory, loss of control of the population, loss of access to the Red Sea coastline,” Knights said.
It happened temporarily in 2017 when troops supported by the United Arab Emirates threatened access to the Red Sea, which is important to the revenue and military supply of the Houtis.
Houthis may actually enjoy our strike, if any. Faa al Muslimi, Yemeni researcher at Chatham House, said they are “a direct answer to Hooty’s prayer for a war with the United States.” The group “want to drag the United States into a larger regional escalation.”
Houthis is fighting for Yemen’s control over parts of the South and over an internationally recognized government supported primarily by the UAE. The unanswered question is whether forces loyal to their government can fight the Housis. “They are already trained and equipped,” says Knights. But their unity is questionable.
Analysts don’t expect the US to place troops on the ground, beyond just a handful of special forces to support air strikes. The US probably (the Yemeni military) has “a little logistics, certain important ammunition,” Knights says.
He added that the UAE will become “quietly and cooperative” as it has long been supplied to the Aden-based government.
The Saudi Arabian perspective is less clear. The Knights believe Riyadh is worried about retaliation against infrastructure with long-range drones and missiles. However, the US has accelerated the delivery of anti-missile defenses to Saudi Arabia in recent months.
The US must tell Riyadh: “We’re going to protect you just as we protected Israel from Iran’s two-round Iran strike in 2024,” Knights says.
Regional diplomatic sources say preparations are underway for ground operations to be launched from the south and east, and along the coast. The coordinated attack could include support from the Saudi Arabia and US navy to recapture Hodeida Port.
“It remains unclear whether such operations are feasible as the mix of the past decade has shown success in some areas and failures in others,” Nagi told CNN.
From day one, President Trump and other US officials have linked the campaign against Hausis to Iran. Trump said Iran will be responsible for “all shots” fired by the Hooty rebels and will face “disastrous” consequences of attacks by extremists in Yemen.
So far, that’s not the case. It is unclear whether Tehran could simply order the Housis to stop the firing. Most of the Iranian axis of resistance is very large, and Houthis retains considerable autonomy.
Trump continues to warn Iran that he will face a massive bombing campaign if he does not enter into a contract to limit nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In the case of the regime, the Houthi campaign and the “maximum pressure” campaign in Tehran are on both sides of the same coin.
Iranians are stomping carefully and provide moral support to Yemen’s allies. Mohsen Lezae, former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, praised Yemen’s barefoot resistance, they bring sophisticated American warships to their laps.
But Iranian leaders are trying to solve the mix of Trump’s small carrots and big sticks, so they don’t want to see them offer more military support to the Housis now.
The US appears to be ready to expand its campaign. A B-2 bomber and KC-135 refueling aircraft have arrived at Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean. It could impact Yemen’s hardened target, but it could be a signal to Iran.
The next few weeks may be a key test of the Honey Badgers’ resilience.