Pakistan and India – two nuclear-armed archrivals from South Asia – are back from the brink once again. For now! The two have barely avoided a full-scale war. But after engaging in their deadly armed conflict in almost 30 years. For now, it is relatively calm at the border thanks to a ceasefire brokered by the US on May 10th.
But the question of the observer’s mind is: Will this ceasefire be held? If yes, how long does it last?
Iran’s Islamic Republic enjoys close ties with both countries, has built a wide range of interests in the stability of the South Asian region, and is one of the countries that are in a position to move forward and play a positive role for a lasting and durable peace between the two.
First, let’s start by summarizing what has happened over the last few weeks. On April 22, 2025, an armed man killed 26 tourists in Pehargam. Most of the people killed were Hindus (except one Christian and a local Muslim boy trying to save them). Some of the people killed were partnering with Indian security forces.
Within minutes of the incident, Indians, including top leadership, began to denounce Pakistan without evidence. The Resistance Front, considered a derivative of the banned Lashkar etayeva, initially claimed responsibility but later attributed it to the cyber abolition of Indian institutions.
Details that emerged later specially submitted the first information report (FIR) to the police station within ten minutes of the incident, leaking documents from the Wing of Research and Analysis of India’s Intelligence Reporting Agency (RAW) – Pakistan believed it was the operation of the Indian government and agency’s false flags. It is the official position of Pakistan and remains.
Pakistan suggested that fair and impartial investigations could be conducted by mutually comprehensive global institutions or third parties to confirm the facts, but India has continually refused to go for it.
However, India was surprised by the revenge by constantly blaming Pakistan without presenting it, attacking Pakistan. India previously adopted the same line and stance in the Pulwama Incident (2019) and URI Incident (2016).
In particular, in 2019, the Pulwama incident took place a few weeks before the Indian general election, and Narender Modi took advantage of the opportunity to support him by adopting harsh stances against Pakistan and war hysteria. India attacked Pakistan, which not only was completely repulsed and retaliated by Pakistan, but also captured an Indian pilot who was later returned. Modi won the election based on the enormous support gathered for jingoism for Pakistan. Now even India’s own opposition parties are accusing Modi of staged Pulwama’s false flag operation to win the election.
once again! With elections looming in India’s major Bihar this year, Modi and his Baltia Janta Party (BJP) have also tried to play the same script this time. However, this time the plan was much larger. India has sought to hold a big attack on Pakistan and a big attack on Pakistan using this “terrorism” pretext, under the misunderstanding of superiority in terms of traditional weapons and a stronger economy. In this way, Modi’s India wanted to conquer Pakistan in the long term. They needed this, given that Modi’s party lost many positions following the results of the 2024 Indian general election, but they won, but supported the narrowing of the base. Therefore, this is a chance for revival from the pre-2024 level, blocking the revival of the Indian National Congress.
Apart from that, India has suspended Indus Waters Treat (IWT) – a major bilateral water sharing agreement with Pakistan, which in fact has no “stop” clause, and Pakistan treats it as a “act of war.”
But Indians were miscalculated, in a big way. Pakistan, on the other hand, was ready to retaliate against unfortunate adventures as it was doing its best to avoid armed conflict. On the evening of May 6th-7th, India controlled several locations in Pakistan to Kasmir in the north by Lahore, Siarkot and Bahawalpur in Punjab, targeting what was claimed to be “terrorist infrastructure.” Pakistan’s position is that all the places attacked were civilian property, mosques and madrassas. India calls it “Operation Sindoor.”
The Pakistani army, especially the Pakistani Air Force (PAF), were on guard and responded to the battle. Experts were considered to be fighting the largest dogs among the two post-World War II air forces, with around 120 to 150 fighters from both sides. The Pakistani Air Force not only kept the Indian Air Force within India’s own airspace, but also defeated five IAF aircraft within India’s airspace.
Pakistan used Chinese-made JF-17 Thunder, J-10C aircraft and PL-15 Hi-sonic missiles on Indian aircraft, including at least three Lafale made by French Dassault. India continues to deny these losses. However, these are currently recognized globally.
India has also launched a barrage of Israeli-made drones against Pakistan. Pakistan has been encountered effectively.
This initial engagement Pakistan’s stance was that whatever we have done so far was “self-defense,” and that the right to retaliate under Article 51 of the UN Charter is reserved with Pakistan. Islamabad showed maximum restraint, but India continued to provoke and escalate for the next two days. On the night between May 9th, India attacked three air forces in Pakistan. These include those that include Rawalpindi (the country’s military headquarters), next to the capital Islamabad.
With this high level of provocation, and this attempt by India, Pakistan had no choice but to retaliate with the full force that its forces had already been prepared. Pakistan launched the “Al-Banyan Al-Marsoos” as of FAJR on May 10th, launching the first release of its homemade Fatah missiles against India. The Pakistani Air Force has targeted 26 military facilities in northwestern India.
Seeing India suffering from a great loss and the misconception of its superiority had been destroyed in the ground before Pakistan, the US made quick progress to save India’s day once again, and quickly brokered a ceasefire. Iran’s Islamic Republic (IRI) was also one of the countries that continued to seek to escalate from both parties. Iranian FM also visited for purposes. The main driving force for the US to arrange a ceasefire was that the Chinese technology used by Pakistan was proving to be far more effective than the Western War.
Given the nature of the bond and the prolonged conflict between the two countries, being optimistic makes it quite difficult for a ceasefire to be held.
Are you asking what Iranian countries can do in such a situation now? Countries moving forward to spreading tensions between Pakistan and India at this time should keep in mind that the first thing to understand is at the heart of everything! The fundamental question is, is Idia really embraced the existence of Pakistan as a sovereign state and adhere to the principles of international law in relation to this?
Second, Pakistan wants the world to understand that the unresolved Kashmir issue is at the heart of Pak India’s hostilities. It is an unfinished agenda of the partition. Peace between Pakistan and India will become an illusion unless the Kashmir conflict is resolved according to the relevant UN resolutions and the desires of the Kashmir people.
No other countries have a real interest in the normalization of Pakistan and India as much as Iran. If India continues to create trouble in the Pakistani part of Balochistan, it is unwise to think that this trend will not affect Iran. The same is that India’s secret support will be provided to Teherek Elivan Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan says it has undeniable evidence that India is in favour of terrorists.
While trying to lower the level of tension between Pakistan and India, states like Pakistan are in a much better position to understand why Israel is doing harm to Pakistan and shaking hands with India. Even if we accept that the place where India attacks within Pakistan is for a while “terrorist infrastructure”, do we really think India is naive enough to maintain militants housed close to the border so close to the border can attack their will from within their airspace? India’s claims do not have a real entity.
Lastly, other countries do not understand better than Iran that they cannot identify the fight against illegal foreign occupation with terrorism. The same forces that fight the Palestinians as terrorists and as supporters as terrorism reflect Indian allegations of freedom from illegal occupation of India and of Karsmiris’s terrorism in support of them diplomatically and morally.
Unless these dimensions of conflict are addressed overall, normalization will remain a dream. This is the understanding of Pakistan.
Pakistan certainly welcomes all offers and mediating roles by Iran. However, India routinely rejects all international offers of mediation.
If Iran can play a role in peacebuilding, in the region it could be the beginning of a long and decisive journey that will lead to a long, decisive journey that will lead to a long-standing progress and prosperity in stability, connection and cooperation.
The author is the founder of the Eurasian Century Institute (ECI) in Islamabad and Pakistan.
MNA/