CNN
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The consequences of the critical conflict between Iran and Israel can depend on one simple number.
Iran has fired about 700 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) in Israel over the past 14 months, leaving 300 to 1,300 remaining in its stockpile, according to Israeli military data and expert analysis.
This remaining Arsenal has been the subject of Israel’s heavy air attacks over the past five days, with the IDF targeting at least a third of its surface-to-surface launchers launching MRBMS, possibly further reducing Iran’s ability to return to Israel.
That Arsenal depletion could exacerbate Iran’s desire to get Iran out of the conflict and strengthen the violent nature of Israeli campaigns in the coming days, analysts said Israeli air forces have been barely challenged and Israeli Iran’s nightly assaults appear to be present recently.
While there are few reliable estimates of Iran’s stockpiles, Commander Kenneth MacKenzie, US commander of Centcom, said in 2023 that more than 3,000 missiles have different ranges. Ben Ben Tareble, a senior fellow at the Democracy Foundation, said these 1,000-2,000 people were medium distance and could span 1,400 kilometers between Iran and Israel. He called the estimate “at best it was envelope calculations.”
According to the IDF, Iran used 120 MRBMS in Israel on April 13 last year, with another 200 on October 1, with a total of 380 over the past five days. This tally would deplete the overall known Arsenal at a total of 700. But whether or not Tehran will leave an existential crisis on missile deterrence will depend on both the size of its initial stockpile and the damage Israel has inflicted on Iranian military infrastructure since it began to snag across the country on Friday.
Ben Talebri suggested that this could leave Iran with 1,300 MRBMs. Other estimates were more pessimistic. Dr. Eir Pino, a retired Israeli Navy Intelligence agent, said he is currently a senior researcher at the Sedat Center for Strategic Studies.
It brought serious casualties by glimpses of some of the damage caused to Iran’s air defense and missile production from the Israeli attack on October 26th. Admiral Tony Radhakin, chief of British defense staff, said in a December speech that 100 Israeli aircraft launched many missiles from miles away, “threw down almost the entire Iranian air defense system, destroying Iran’s ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year.”
However, recently Israel has amplified the threat posed by Iranian missile production. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that Iran could increase the production of ballistic missiles to 300 a month, leaving 20,000 in six years as Israel launched an air campaign. He provided no evidence of his claim.
Pinko said the 2024 strike “destroyed major facilities for the manufacture of ballistic missile motors” in Iran, creating severe restrictions on the country’s supply chain. Still, he points out that potential support from China over the next few months could once again boost production.
Iran would not want to sink “less than four digits” into the MRBMS arsenal, Ben Tareble said.
“For the Islamic Republic, quantity has its own quality,” he said, adding that Iran “is actually a traditional fighter jet in crisis management, and that these ballistic missiles must be spent in times of war, not in times of crisis.”