CNN
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For years, Americans have been heading in a more isolated, anti-war direction. Especially on the right, the Ascendant View means that world problems aren’t necessarily ours.
Iran could be trying to test it.
President Donald Trump has recently adopted increasingly bold rhetoric about the US involvement in Israel’s attacks on Iran. On Tuesday afternoon, he wrote of the true society, “We now have full and complete control of the skies over Iran.” He added that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a “easy target,” adding, “We’re not going to take him (kill him!), or at least not now.” He called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”
These comments came as CNN reported that it was quickly warming up to using US troops to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Trump had previously been rattled with Saber, so this could be that he has once again adopted the “madman theory” of foreign policy. But it is also clear that we are closer to a major new military conflict than we have been in 20 years.
So, if Trump engages the US military aggressively, how do Americans see it? it’s complicated.
Americans have expressed many concerns about Iran in recent years, and even expressed support for the hypothetical military strike. However, there is reason to believe that military action today can be too far. This is for the same reason that Americans are moving away from foreign intervention.
Many of the votes here are dated and opinions may change based on fresh circumstances, of course.
The 2019 Fox News poll is a recent high-quality survey that asks directly about the situation Trump is thinking. And we found a considerable level of support for using actions to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
American voters favored a margin of 53% to 30%, or 23 points.
The question from there is whether Americans actually consider it to be their purpose here. This is how Trump has charged a potential strike, saying Iran is on the nuclear crisis.
But like in March this year, his own National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard testified the exact opposite. She said the Intel community evaluated “Iran does not build nuclear weapons and Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei does not approve the nuclear weapons programme that was suspended in 2003.”
Trump challenged Gabbard’s explanation on Tuesday, but it’s not difficult to see what she said, and the US intelligence report ratings on the imminent lack of Iran’s nuclear weapons. That’s especially true because America’s last major military advancement was extremely unpopular in neighbouring Iraq as the Bush administration exaggerated the threat it posed.
Americans appeared in theory open to military action. The question from there is how quickly they see the threat.
Some studies show that Americans tend to view Iran as a major threat and are bipartisan.
The same Fox poll showed that 57% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans called Iran a “true national security threat.” A 2023 Fox poll showed more than six Democrats in 10, and about eight in 10 Republicans worried at least “very” that Iran would win nuclear weapons. Last year, Gallup Polling showed that 93% of Republicans and 70% of Democrats described the nuclear weapons developing Iran as a “significant threat” to the important US interests.
However, other studies suggest that perceived problems may not be particularly high.
Last year, in the Pew Research Center vote, many Americans felt that China (64%) and Russia (59%) were greater military threats than Iran (42%).
Pew Data found last year only 37% of Americans who said that limiting Iran’s power and influence should be a “first priority.” It was lower than limiting the power of Russia and China, and ranked roughly the same as North Korea’s power, but below climate change restrictions.
And in 2020, a CBS News survey conducted by SSRS found that Iran was a threat enough to require immediate military action. The majority felt it was a threat to be contained (64%), while 17% said it was not a threat.
All of these numbers could change as Trump heads towards the US, where he bumps into Iran. He shows Republicans in particular the ability to buy whatever he says. (Some well-known conservative voices, like Tucker Carlson, have strongly rejected the idea of a strike, but that means there may even be resistance there). Anyway, these numbers could be polarized.
However, the US Intelligence Evaluation concluded that Iran not only hasn’t actively pursued nuclear weapons, but it is in contrast to Israel’s warnings, but it has also been up to three years since it was able to produce and deliver it to its targets.
Trump’s history with Iran is also close here. In 2020 he launched a controversial strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, the top Iranian commander. And votes often showed people leaning in favor of strikes.
But the vote also shows Americans who said the strike has reduced domestic safety in double digits. CNN polls at the time showed that Americans disapproved Trump’s handling of the situation with Iran by double digits, 53-42%.
All of this shows that Americans are concerned about blowbacks and do not have a particularly high level of faith in Trump’s Iranian policies.
The data total suggests that Americans are concerned about the prospect of Iran getting nuclear weapons, but it is not necessarily an immediate issue that requires US military use. If anyone asks if you’re worried about nuclear foreign countries, of course that sounds scary. You may sign off on assumptions that the US military may be needed to combat the threat you fear.
But that doesn’t mean I think it’s urgent enough to guarantee that it will harm us and lead to today’s major Middle Eastern war.
And there are many reasons why Trump believes he can, or at least should, approach this idea carefully.