CNN
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The purpose of the operation has been fully clarified since the launch of an unprecedented strike against Israel’s Iranian target earlier this month.
The intent was to permanently remove the “existent” nuclear and ballistic missile threats of the Islamic Republic, one of the carefully spelled Israeli military officials.
With the US taking part in the weekend and slamming Iran’s nuclear facilities with ammunition that destroys powerful bunkers, President Donald Trump claimed the strike was a “magnificent military success” and that Iran’s nuclear facilities had been “completely wiped out.”
However, with a ceasefire in place now, it is not clear that the ambitious objective has been achieved.
According to Western military sources, satellite images analyzed by CNN reveal large-scale destruction at major nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordou, but it is too early to fully assess the damage caused by the strikes of the US and Israel.
Iran’s controversial uranium enrichment program, which uses sensitive centrifuges installed deep underground in reinforced bunkers, can be inoperable or damaged, if not completely destroyed.
Trump has argued that Iran will never rebuild its nuclear program.
“The location is under the rock and the location will be demolished,” he told reporters in Washington on Tuesday before heading to the NATO summit in The Hague.
However, if there is political will, Iran may have the ability and means to revive its programme, given that its technical know-how is likely to have survived, despite its targets of multiple Iranian nuclear scientists in Israel.
Additionally, officials from the UN nuclear watchdog Agency IAEA have confirmed that there is still uncertainty about where nuclear material is already being produced by Iran.
Iran’s nuclear official, Mohammad Eslami, head of the country’s atomic energy organization, claimed that he “planned in advance” to “not be interrupted by the nuclear program.”
Meanwhile, Iranian state media reported that nuclear sites were “evacuated” prior to the US strike, raising concerns that some or all of the enriched nuclear material is preserved in a secret facility that is likely unknown to inspectors.
But even if Iran could safely hide enriched uranium, converting it into weapons-grade material “is not a fast process.” He rated Iran would be “a good or two years” to build nuclear weapons.
However, ability is not the same as intention.
One important question lies in whether Iran, which has always argued that the nuclear program is a peaceful purpose, will change its current calculations and strategies.
For many years, hard-pressed voices within the Islamic Republic have sought nuclear weapons as a deterrent to the overwhelming attacks that the nation has endured over the past 12 days. Inevitably, these calls may be now being strengthened.
Already, Iranian officials have publicly suggested they will step out of the NPT, a major nuclear non-proliferation treaty designed to monitor and prevent the global spread of nuclear weapons.
“The NPT cannot protect us, so why countries like Iran, or those interested in having peaceful nuclear energy, should rely on the NPT,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragci told a meeting in Istanbul on Sunday.
Ominously, other Iranian lawmakers have called for the Islamic Republic to formally withdraw.
If that happens, it will almost certainly be interpreted as a confirmation of Iran’s intention to build the bomb.
However, it is not certain that a very unstable situation will develop in this way.
Another consideration that could slow the dash by the Islamic Republic and build weapons beyond nuclear thresholds is the potential threat of a change of administration that Israel is actively sought and has recently been actively sought by Trump.
At this point, the ceasefire is in place and the threat appears to have retreated. And Trump has since told reporters he doesn’t want to see an Iranian change of government, and that such a move will cause confusion.
But if there are further indications that Iran is bordering towards a nuclear breakout, it may find a way to return to the table, even if it is full of danger and unpredictability.
A comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran remains an option.
Last week in Geneva, top European and Iranian diplomats explored ideas for possible agreements, including proposals for a direct meeting between Iran and the United States.
Later, in the aftermath of the US strike against Iran, a Western European diplomat told CNN that the “window of actual opportunity” was “closed” by American actions.
But if a fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel is held now, it may have just opened that window again.