CNN
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There are two reasons why President Donald Trump needs a world he believes he will firmly insist that Iran’s nuclear program has disappeared.
First, his entire presidency is set to reflect his own strongman persona glory, promoting a story of brave, unique and unfallable leadership. Information that contradicts myths is not welcome.
Second, evidence that Iran retains its ability to manufacture nuclear weapons or to resume its programmes after boldly carrying out US bombing raids would raise an unpleasant question: Should the US again use military action to meet future advances in Iran’s capabilities with more strikes? This would potentially open up a period of first quasi-war with Iran, where Trump has no appetite. It raises the risk of wider conflict. And angers his Magazinebass.
Trump and his top EU are increasing anger and blaming the media to report the initial “low confidence” ratings by the defence intelligence agency that are attacking three facilities in Iran, so the media is unable to destroy the core elements of the nuclear program, and perhaps only reclaim it every few months.
Trump doubled his efforts at a press conference at the NATO summit to portray the attack as “very, very successful.” He added, “It was called expungement. No other troops on Earth could do that.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegses launched a theatrical explosion against CNN and the New York Times after reporting on the assessment. Such outlets “will try to find a way to spin it for their own political reasons trying to hurt President Trump and our country. They don’t care what the military thinks,” Hegses said.
The White House on Wednesday highlighted an assessment from Israeli military chief of staff, saying Iran’s nuclear program was “systematic” and was brought back several years later, with CIA coach John Ratcliffe saying the agency had evidence that it was “seriously damaged.”
However, these statements suggest that Iran has been hit hard, but still do not fully support Trump’s vast claims.
The president’s tactics were familiar. He is global in his strategy of creating his own stories, whether or not there is still evidence to prove them. He showed how successful this could be in 2020 with false claims of election fraud.
If the world believes that Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed and all sources that suggest that it is not, then Trump has a basis for not taking any further action.
Everything that contains intelligence is, by definition, opaque. And the lasting judgment from technical or human sources is about how the US could take months to make Iran’s nuclear program. It is also not possible to know if the administration has more information about the aftermath of a strike that has not been made public for operational reasons.
The wiser first White House response to the raid may have avoided the current controversy. But that desperate spin was inevitable as Trump declared that Saturday’s mission was a totally overwhelming success. The opposite evidence means an embarrassing reversal, challenging his ego and reliability.
But the hyper-emotional response to honest questions about whether Iran’s nuclear program has really been wiped out defends the White House and raises doubts about its truth. And it’s distracting from the aspects of the mission that Trump can claim credit. This is a wild bombing raid of the world, with no US casualties and his effective pressure to stop his effective fight against Israel and Iran, and not hampering his success in not being drawn into a long war.
The growing controversy over Iran has masked the undeniable achievements of Trump at the Dutch summit in order to gain commitment from member states to spend 5% of its GDP on defense by 2035. The goal is difficult to reach. However, other presidents were not close to achieving the same.
The White House only blames itself.
What could not be properly explained to Americans was the motive of why the Trump administration began believing Iran was weeks away from building nuclear weapons. Failing to inform top Democrats that the B-2 bombing mission was ongoing has unnecessarily politicized issues where Trump could expect substantial support across the aisle. The administration then postponed Capitol Hill briefing on the strike until Thursday. It is unclear whether these sessions are productive.
Trump’s intelligence chief rushed to bolster his claims on Wednesday. Ratcliffe’s statement said the CIA has obtained a “body of credible evidence” that Iran’s nuclear program “has been “devastly damaged.” This included intelligence from a reliable source/method that several important Iranian nuclear facilities had to be destroyed and rebuilt for years,” Ratcliffe said. However, his comments were lacking in regards to Trump’s claims of erasure.
National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard posted to X that the “New Intelligence Report” showed that Iran’s nuclear facility had been “destroyed.”
None of the pushbacks provided evidence that allowed Americans to make up for their own minds. On the Hague Wednesday, he did nothing to support Trump’s claim that Iran hadn’t moved its rich uranium stocks prior to the attack. It also did not mention whether Iran maintains a secret facility that can be used to race towards the bomb.
Contrary to what Hegseth argued, it is not unpatriotic to report information confirmed by administrative authorities questioning the extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear program. And no one is attacking the pilot of the B-2 bomber who took on the dangerous few hours of mission. The tone of media coverage of their efforts is characterized by marveling rather than criticism.
The question is whether the first bomb used in the activity, filling the bunkers, actually penetrated the nuclear facility in Fordou, buried under hundreds of feet of rock and cement, destroying a centrifuge that spins uranium. And it’s about whether Trump really fulfills his duties as president if he ignores evidence that his purpose is not fully met.
The administration’s wild response to the preliminary low-confidence Pentagon Intelligence Report creates another dangerous possibility. It is putting pressure on the intelligence community to coordinate their intelligence to meet their political needs.
This corrosive trend has been disastrous for US national security in the past. Such actions are a major concern about the major national security impact under the president who abandoned the US intelligence reporting community and appointed officials to lead it, sharing political views.
Future Intelligence Reports (which could take several months to implement) may conclude that Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed or far from the point of approaching the weapon.
Otherwise, Trump has major political and diplomatic issues.
Now that the US has taken military action with Israel in an attempt to eradicate Iran’s nuclear program, he has created his own standard.
If reliable evidence emerges that Iran has recovered aspects of its programme, either a rich uranium centrifuge or inventory will be under pressure for the President or Israel to take new action to stop it, as reported. The International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran may have driven easily portable uranium before us and Israel’s attacks.
Future US actions against Iran can create conditions for long-term wars or deeper lower-level conflicts in the Middle East that Trump vowed to avoid, which threatens to create new fractures in his “against America.”
There is a precedent for such long-term, expensive engagement. After the 1991 Gulf War, the US-led coalition maintained a no-fly zone in Iraq to protect Kurdish minorities in the north and Shias in the south, and for more than a decade it was a no-fly zone in Iraq to contain Saddam Hussein’s army.
Uncertainty about the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme could also complicate efforts to arrive at a diplomatic solution with the Islamic Republic. Trump said at NATO summit on Wednesday that we and Iranian negotiators will meet next week. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkov told CNBC on Wednesday that his boss was looking for a “comprehensive peace deal” with Iran, which goes beyond nuclear issues. After 45 years of hostility, it will be an extraordinary breakthrough. If Trump could end the alienation of the US with the Islamic Republic – perhaps after defeating the power of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in military action, he could justly assert the achievement of a major legacy.
“I think they’re ready. That’s my strong feeling,” Witkov said.
However, such hopes rely on the development of an opaque Iranian system. Political forces that the United States cannot control. And elements of extremists, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, who often lose much in terms of fame and economic strength if the regime changes or falls.
Some experts believe Iran will respond to US and Israeli attacks by inferring that it is even more essential to develop nuclear bombs to ensure the survival of its regime. And if Tehran refuses to cooperate with the IAEA and its inspectors, it could be possible to avoid external surveillance.
But Trump lowered his expectations on Wednesday about a lasting deal with Iran. “We might sign an agreement. I don’t know. I don’t think it’s necessary for me. I mean, they fought, and now they’re back in their world. I don’t care if there’s an agreement or not,” the president said.
He implied that a statement by Iran that it would not seek nuclear weapons would undermine his own claim that their programme had been wiped out.
The complete truth may not be known for several months.
But it becomes a deep irony if another White House misrepresented Iranian programme tweaks intelligence reports 20 years after the war caused by Cherry Pick’s intelligence reporting agency on a non-existent weapons of mass destruction programme.