Seoul, Korea
CNN
–
As American B-2 bombers striped beyond Iran, they target facilities tied to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, East Asian policymakers and analysts were already tackling important issues.
Experts warn that Washington’s military action could strengthen Pyongyang’s resolve to accelerate its arms programme and deepen cooperation with Russia, reinforcing leader Kim Jong’s belief that nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent against a powerful US change of government.
Despite years of efforts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program, the Kim administration is believed to own multiple nuclear weapons, and missiles that can potentially reach the US mean that potential military strikes on the South Korean peninsula are at a very high risk.
“President Trump’s strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities will undoubtedly further strengthen the legitimacy of the North Korean regime’s survival and longstanding policies on nuclear weapons development,” said Lim Ulchul, professor of North Korea’s studies at Kyonnam University in South Korea.
“North Korea sees recent US airstrikes as a preemptive military threat and is likely to accelerate efforts to increase its own capabilities for preemptive nuclear missile attacks,” Lim said.
Analysts say that the two neighbors attacked Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and the acceleration could come through Russian aid.
Since its official establishment in 2024, the strategic partnership between North Korea and Russia has become an important economic and military lifeline for Pyongyang amid ongoing Western sanctions.
“Based on the strategic alliance between North Korea and Russia, Pyongyang is likely to move towards joint weapons development, military exercises, technology transfer and growing interdependence in both economic and military terms,” Lim said.
North Korea has dispatched more than 14,000 soldiers, including missiles and rockets, and millions of munitions to support Russia’s invasion, according to a report by the Multilateral Sanctions Surveillance Team (MSMT), an initiative made up of 11 UN members.
In return, Russia has provided North Korea with a variety of valuable weapons and technologies, including air defense equipment, anti-aircraft missiles, electronic warfare systems, and sophisticated oil.
These actions “will allow North Korea to fund military programs, develop more ballistic missile programs banned under several (UN Security Council resolutions), and gain direct experience in modern warfare,” the report found.
Lessons from Iraq, Libya, Iran and the US-led intervention
In Kim’s eyes, recent US military actions in Iran follow a troubling logic. Nuclear-free countries are vulnerable to US-led interventions, from Iraq and Libya to Iran, said Victor Cha, South Korea’s chairman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. North Korea has already tested six nuclear devices and developed long-range missiles, and believes its arsenal is unnegotiable.
Washington’s airstrikes on Tehran’s nuclear assets could leave a lasting impression on the Kim administration, according to the CHA. “The strike against Iran is just a reaffirmation of two things for North Korea, and neither will work well for US policy,” he said.
“1: The United States does not have the option of using North Korea’s nuclear program, as it was in Israel for Iran.
And the contrast between Iran and North Korea is particularly severe, especially in terms of nuclear capabilities.
“We are pleased to announce that we are a great opportunity to help you understand the importance of our efforts to ensure that you are a part of our business,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international security at EWHA Womens University in Seoul.
“The Kim administration could threaten the US homeland and Seoul is within the scope of many North Korean weapons of all sorts,” he added.
In contrast, Iran has not yet developed a nuclear weapon in its deliverables, and according to the latest assessment of the International Atomic Energy Agency, its uranium enrichment has not been stripped of the weaponization threshold.
Also, when Trump ordered B-2 stealth aircraft to drop “bunkerbusting” bombs at Iran’s nuclear facilities, he was pursuing years of diplomacy with the US and Western countries, perhaps its nuclear program.
North Korea owns between 40 and 50 warheads, which are considered along with a means to reach the entire region and potentially to the US mainland.
“Attacks on North Korea could pose a risk of a full-scale nuclear war,” warned Lim of Kyonnam University.
He added that under the US-Korea alliance treaty, US military measures against North Korea also require prior consultation with the South Korean government. This is a step that brings political and legal implications.
There are also external forces to consider. Unlike Iran, North Korea has a formal mutual defense treaty with Russia. This allows “Russia to automatically intervene in the event of an attack,” Rim emphasized.
This deterrent matrix — nuclear capabilities, US regional alliances, and Russian support — could segregate Pyongyang from the kind of unilateral military action Washington wielded in Iran.
He ultimately said that strikes against Iran could serve as justification rather than as a deterrent to proliferation.
“This attack will deepen North Korea’s distrust of the United States,” he said, “it is hoped to serve as a catalyst for changes in North Korea’s foreign policy, particularly by strengthening and deepening military cooperation with Russia.”