Iran and Russia have finalized a long-delayed cooperation agreement, strengthening ties between the two countries as they face increasing geopolitical pressure.
The 20-year agreement signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday increases military and defense cooperation and includes the use of both countries’ territory for any activity that threatens their security. It contains a clause that prohibits Do not provide aid to any force that attacks another country.
Such an agreement has been discussed for years, but current events make it even more necessary.
For Russia, the war in Ukraine has worsened its geopolitical position, while in addition to Russia, Iran is also struggling with Western sanctions and the fallout from Israeli attacks and weakening and collapse of several allies in the region. I’m struggling with it. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime collapsed in early December.
Syria has arguably provided a key impetus to strengthening ties as both countries lose a key ally in al-Assad and weaken their power across the region.
Both Moscow and Tehran were caught off guard by the rebel advance and ultimately decided to let al-Assad go. However, both countries now seem committed to strengthening their bilateral relations.
The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement during President Pezeshkian’s official visit to Moscow reflects this.
The deal is based not only on Russian-Iranian cooperation on Ukraine and efforts to circumvent Western sanctions, but also on Moscow’s proposed North-South Transport Corridor to boost trade from Asia to Russia.
The route is designed to avoid geopolitical chokepoints like the Suez Canal and the Baltic states, favoring an overland route through Iran, Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea.
Syria as a catalyst
Before the Syrian war began in 2011, Moscow and Tehran had their own strategic partnership with Damascus.
The Russian partnership is based on a naval base in Tartus, established in 1971 to project power across the Mediterranean, and initially built in 2015 to provide air support to al-Assad against Syrian rebels. It was established at Khmeimim Air Base. Over time, air bases have played a pivotal role in Moscow’s operations in Africa.
Meanwhile, Iran deepened ties during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, driven by the understanding that both Tehran and Damascus opposed Western interference in the region. Syria has become a key conduit for the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, which is part of Iran’s “Shia Crescent” and “Axis of Resistance.”
As the war progressed, the strategic interests of Iran and Russia converged in Syria, particularly in 2015, and both countries intervened forcefully to prevent an opposition victory.
Russia’s military intervention in 2015 stabilized the al-Assad regime, with support from Iranian-aligned militias, which played a decisive role in turning the tide of the conflict.
“Russian-Iranian relations have expanded since then,” Kirill Seminov, a non-resident expert at the Russian Council of International Affairs, told Al Jazeera. “Since 2020, events in Syria have had only a minor impact on Russian-Iranian relations, which have developed in many new directions.”
These include expanding military cooperation and economic ties, with Tehran and Moscow working to circumvent Western sanctions through alternative banking mechanisms and energy deals. Iran also positions itself as a key transit point on Russia’s North-South Transport Corridor, which provides an important trade route to Asia.
Relations have deepened since the Russia-Ukraine war, in which Russia used Iranian-supplied drones, driven by a shared interest in countering what it saw as U.S. global hegemony. There is. Both countries are seeking alternatives to the U.S.-led world order, and Iran sees Russia as a partner in pivoting eastward.
Iran’s entry into the BRICS group of emerging economies in 2023 (a club of which Russia was already a member) can be seen as part of this effort. BRICS provides a platform for cooperation as Iran seeks to join and integrate into the multipolar economic bloc in line with its goals.
“Building a multipolar world and countering the expansionist plans of the United States and the West remain at the heart of Russian-Iranian cooperation,” Semimenov said.
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, said it is this common enemy approach that is bringing Iran and Russia closer together.
“Both countries have taken steps to elevate their relationship towards some kind of strategic partnership, particularly in areas such as military and security cooperation, and more recently economic cooperation, which could help avoid sanctions. It is aimed at adapting to the negative effects of economic pressure from Western countries,” Azizi said.
The limits of the Russian-Iranian partnership
The cooperation agreement signed on Friday signals a deepening partnership, but unlike the agreement Russia signed with North Korea last year, it does not include mutual defense clauses and constitutes the formation of a formal alliance. isn’t it.
It probably reflects the limits of Iran-Russia relations, already seen in Syria.
There, Tehran and Moscow were unable to find common ground, often to the detriment of each other and unable to rise to the task of rebuilding the country.
For example, in 2017, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin made it clear that his country was the only one responsible for rebuilding Syria’s energy industry. Eager to reap the benefits of Syria’s reconstruction, Iran was held in check by President al-Assad and the Russian government, with one Iranian parliamentarian warning that Iran was being “sacrificed.”
Syria’s new regime could also become a watershed between Russia and Iran, as Moscow maintains a more conciliatory approach.
Mr. Azizi said that the fall of the al-Assad regime has many implications for both Russia and Iran, including “whether there was any kind of behind-the-scenes agreement or understanding between Russia and the United States, Turkiye, and Turkey.” He pointed out that it depends on the variables of On the one hand (the former) Syrian rebels, as part of a potential comprehensive package involving Syria and Ukraine.”
“For example, if Russia were able to maintain military bases in Syria, albeit with a more reduced capacity, and there was an agreement to end the war in Ukraine after Donald Trump took office, Russia would actually Azizi added that both Syria and Ukraine need Iran’s support in various aspects, but given the “deepening cooperation” of the past few years, relations between Iran and Russia are He added that it is unlikely that any fundamental changes will occur. year.
Differences may arise in other areas as well, particularly on the topic of nuclear weapons, which Iran is seeking from the West. Iran’s national defense doctrine officially opposes the pursuit of nuclear weapons, but after Israel has dealt several blows to its allies, especially Lebanon’s Hezbollah, some factions in Iran are now changing that policy. publicly requesting that it be changed.
Russia has historically been involved in Iran’s nuclear program, including building the Bushehr nuclear power plant, but repeatedly delayed progress in the 2000s and 2010s, making it an unreliable partner in the eyes of some in Iran. has been criticized. The Russian government also delayed the delivery of S-300 missile defense systems from 2010 to 2016 as a result of Western sanctions on Tehran.
“Russia does not want Iran to arm itself with nuclear weapons…(It) would change the balance of power in the Middle East against Russia’s interests.The best scenario for Russia is that Iran would be under sanctions. and continue to challenge the United States and Europe over their nuclear program,” said Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor at Tehran’s Hamikhan Daily.
“If Russia helps contain Iran, it will seek concessions from the United States on Ukraine,” Montazeri added.
A new direction for the Middle East
As Syria has proven, geopolitical dynamics can always change depending on events on the ground, and more than an anti-American strategy, the lack of strong ideological ties worsens relations between Iran and Russia. There is a possibility.
The changing nature of the alliance can be seen in Turkiye’s opposition to and cooperation with Iran and Russia.
In December 2024, after the fall of the Assad regime, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran, and Russia convened on the sidelines of the Doha Forum in Qatar.
The tripartite meeting was held under the Astana Process, a diplomatic initiative aimed at managing the Syrian conflict, with Russia and Iran acting as guarantors for the regime and Turkiye as guarantor for the opposition.
Astana was an opportunity for the three countries, while supporting different positions, to work together to achieve Syria’s security goals. However, for much of the process, it was Turkiye who was in a weak position, given what was seen as al-Assad’s de facto victory in the war.
The situation has now changed, with Turkiye in power over Iran and Russia, and the conduit for influence in Damascus, where Turkiye has long supported former rebel groups. It depends.
Omer Ozkijirsik, director of Turkish studies at the Omran Strategic Research Center in Istanbul, said this is the new reality they have to adapt to.
Foreign Minister Ozki Jirsik noted that the Assad regime had given Iran almost complete carte blanche regarding its activities within Syrian territory, saying, “Iran is at a clear disadvantage, but it has adapted to the new reality and “We’re going to have to build some kind of relationship with the government.”
For its part, Russia wants to maintain its bases in Syria, while partially turning its attention to Libya to avoid the new reality. Libya has close ties with the eastern government based in Benghazi, and Russian cargo planes have made several flights to Syria. -Khadim base.
Meanwhile, Iran appears to have retreated into Iraq to strengthen its own position. Reports have surfaced that Iraq has pressured its allies to stop firing rockets and drones at Israel, which may have led to US-Israeli attacks on their positions.
In this context, Iran is likely to strengthen its influence in Iraq, “the last pillar of Iran’s axis of resistance,” Montazeri said.
Iraq’s importance now serves as a financial and defense buffer for Tehran, which relies on Iraqi economic aid amid sanctions.
Seyed Emamian, co-founder of a governance and policy think tank in Tehran, said Iran has a history of adapting to changing geopolitical dynamics and would be able to withstand any changes and maintain its relationship with Russia. .
However, no matter what agreement emerges between Russia and the United States after President Trump takes office, Iranian leaders do not expect President Putin to fundamentally change the strategic direction toward Iran.
“President Putin is well aware of the anti-Russian attitude that is deeply rooted in the US and European establishment,” Emamian said.
“For the past three years, Russia has faced what it sees as an existential challenge from the West…Putin has long-standing alliances with countries that have proven their loyalty at critical junctures, such as Syria and Crimea. It seems unlikely to jeopardize the relationship,”’ Emamian added.