CNN
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Just three days before President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, Russia and Iran have finally signed the Comprehensive Partnership Agreement, which has been in the works for months.
The move brings renewed attention to the partnership that shapes Ukraine’s battlefield and continues to challenge the U.S.-led international order, even as the new U.S. administration pledges to expand engagement with Russia. are.
Russia and Iran share a troubled and troubled past, and today they still walk a fine line between cooperation and mistrust. Nevertheless, the Ukraine war brought Moscow and Tehran closer together.
John Alterman, director of the Middle East Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that “the idea of the United States not just as an adversary but as the strategic objective of any foreign policy has united the two countries.” Tank in Washington DC told CNN. “That’s what connected them to the battlefield in Ukraine.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the new agreement and welcomed the opportunity to discuss the burgeoning “strategic partnership.” Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian said relations between the countries were growing “day by day”.
Unlike the security pact between Russia and North Korea, the deal with Iran does not require either country to protect the other if one is attacked. Just don’t provide military or other assistance to the attackers.
In July 2022, five months after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Putin made his first wartime visit outside the former Soviet Union and visited Tehran.
Behind the photo shoots and handshakes, his “special military operation” was not planned. His forces lost much of their initial gains when forced out of the Kiev area, but suffered even more losses in two more successful Ukrainian counterattacks later that year.
Russia’s interest in Tehran has paid off. Thanks to a deal struck after that visit, Russia is now mass-producing thousands of Iranian-designed Shahid attack drones at factories in Tatarstan. A CNN investigation in December found the facility’s production rate would have more than doubled in 2024.
These drones form the backbone of Moscow’s war of attrition, with swarms targeting civilian areas and energy infrastructure with the aim of breaking the resolve of the Ukrainian people and depleting air defenses.
Russia deployed more than 11,000 troops to Ukraine last year, according to a tally from CNN’s Air Force coverage, more than four times the estimated 2,500-plus in 2023 provided by CNN’s Ukrainian defense sources.
According to the United States, Russia has also handed over Iranian ballistic missiles, and although no evidence of the alleged deployment has yet surfaced, that news alone sends a strong signal that Putin is prepared to escalate to Ukraine. sent to the allies.
Less favorably for Russia, it also helped to change the direction of the debate over whether Ukraine should be given permission to fire Western-supplied long-range missiles at Russian military targets. Several prominent Russian military bloggers claimed in early January, without providing evidence, that Iranian missile launchers and other equipment were being shipped to Russian military training ranges ahead of the deal.
Two and a half years have passed since President Putin’s visit to Tehran, and the power relationship between the two countries has changed significantly. Russia currently has the upper hand in Ukraine. It has gained territory on the Eastern Front and, with the support of North Korean soldiers, is slowly pushing back Ukraine in Russia’s Kursk region. Russia is barely concealing its glee, as the incoming Trump administration wants to start a dialogue, making noises about forcing Russia to keep the territory it occupies and blocking Ukraine’s bid to join NATO. .
Friday’s meeting between President Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was a welcome opportunity for the Russian government to burnish its self-image as a superpower. Russia views the relationship as “asymmetric,” Jean-Loup Samaan, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told CNN. “They still think of themselves as a bigger partner here, and they still think of Iran as a regional partner.”
Meanwhile, Iran clearly feels less secure. Nikita Smagin, an independent expert on Russia and Iran who worked for Russian state media in Tehran before the invasion of Ukraine, said the Pezeshki government was rushing to conclude the treaty with Russia amid multiple security threats. He says there is.
“They’re scared of the Trump administration, they’re scared of Israel, they’re scared of the fall of the Assad regime, they’re scared of the fall of Hezbollah,” he said, explaining that Iran was seeking a show of support.
Moscow may try to exploit this. Alterman said Russians have a “great sense of smell for people in need,” so “we can help them a little bit, but we can’t get them where they need to be.” “I can get more of what I want out of them,” he said.
What more Russia wants is less clear. The company is currently indigenizing the production of Shahed on Russian soil, paying Iran a share of the manufacturing costs under the original franchise agreement, but has now significantly reduced Iran’s direct involvement. We are producing.
Russia’s recent battlefield victories have come at a heavy cost to its military. Therefore, although the human resource problem is far from the level of Ukraine’s, it could potentially commit more forces on the ground. But experts are skeptical that Iran will be as amenable in this regard as North Korea, which has about 11,000 troops in Russia’s Kursk region, according to Ukrainian and Western assessments. is.
“Even when Iran is at war outside Iran, they are not willing to sacrifice soldiers,” Smagin said. “And when you’re talking about Iran and Russia, there’s a very large background of distrust towards Russia from the Iranian side.” And given the more immediate threat to Iran from Israel, Russia is reluctant to enter into any mutual defense agreement. may also be cautious.
“I think this is intended, in part, as a message to the Trump administration that each of us has a choice,” Alterman said. “I think the Iranians are looking for tools that they can use to work with the Americans…and there’s a sense that this gives them something to trade and something to talk about.”
Iran faces the possibility of U.N. sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal being reinstated, and President Trump has pushed the U.S. to rejoin the deal it withdrew from in 2018 or restart negotiations. We are urgently looking for ways to persuade.
A new treaty with Iran that could bring Russia closer than ever to the ability to produce nuclear weapons raises concerns of further escalation in the face of a new U.S. administration that sees its commitment to Ukraine as diminishing. That may also be part of the purpose.
“The Iranians certainly have some alarming capabilities, and the Russians have certainly shown a willingness to utilize them,” Alterman said.