The agenda of Prime Minister Israel, Prime Minister Benald Trump in the White House, is a potential transaction that normalizes the relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Trump wants to send his special messenger Steve Witkov to the Riyado in both the transition and last week.
This is a place that can be reached for the US national security benefits and can be reached. But it is not approaching. A series of carefully sequence and the corresponding political strategy is more likely to be successful in the latter half of this year, even in the latter half of this year, rather than a crazy rush of Trump’s term.
Several conditions must be properly implemented to enable this transaction.
First, the Gaza Cancer must hold the second phase and move forward. If everything goes well, phases 1 will be completed by early March, 33 Israelites will be released, and a significant increase in humanitarian support for Gaza will increase. The second phase, which has just begun to negotiate, will secure the release of the remaining Israelites.
Netanyahu has already lost the ITAMAR BEN GVIR state, a far -right partner, and another Minister of Finance BEZALEL SMOTRICH is a threat to leaving the Netaniyahu coalition and defeating the government when phase 2 occurs. 73 % of the people of the Israeli people want an agreement. Trump will claim that Netanyahu will deliver it. According to Israeli media reports, Witkov told the Prime Minister that “your coalition is your problem.”
Second, the rebuilding in Gaza needs to start, and a reliable route to the Palestinian state in the west coast of the Jordan River and Gaza is required. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS) and his aide are consistently quoting this route as a normalization requirement.
Trump complicated this problem last week by ease of Palestinians evacuating from Gaza. Palestinians and Arab countries are related to the death of the Palestinian desire to the nation. An additional concerns about the addition to the MBS, which is the stability of the area required for the success of his ambitious vision 2030, is such an population relocation to the two major Arab partners, Egypt and Jordan. There is a possibility of an unstable impact.
There are two problems on the Israel side. The Israel Union depends on the solid opposition of the Palestinian state.
The accurate explanation of the Palestinian state and the MBS, and the established timeline, which can be accepted by the Israeli people, needs to be carefully negotiated because it requires important security guarantees in Israel. Trump’s 2020 Middle East Peace Plan is inadequate, but may provide a starting point.
Third, Lebanon’s ceasefire must be maintained, and Israel needs to roll back the POST base in front of Syria’s height. The quiet Israeli Lebanon border, which makes Israeli residents feel enough security to return to the border community in the northern Israel, will provide a much better background to the normalization of Israel Saudi Arabia than the reopening of the war.
Saudi Arabia has also abandoned his status in Syria in order to help Saudi Arabia’s efforts to help find the scaffolding of Damascus Assad to find the scaffold. There is a possibility of pushing out Israel.
Finally, Trump and MBS must reach an agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia in a series of two countries supporting regularization contracts. Former US Secretary of State Antony Brinken laid out with a speech at the Atlantic Council just before he resigned: a security treaty, a defense cooperation agreement, an energy agreement including private nuclear power, and a trade and investment agreement.
These factors were negotiated in detail between the Biden administration, but have not been completed. Trump must review them and make sure they can support them or seek corrections. For the nature of the US security guarantee (the true prize of Saudi Arabia throughout this company), we and the Saudi team are still strict negotiations, and Saudi Arabia will definitely work with the United States, not China. Is to guarantee. 。 The MBS pledge, which invests $ 600 billion in the United States, may help you to advance these discussions, especially if you have purchased major US defensive platforms, such as the F-15 aircraft.
Trump ultimately need to bring the US and Saudi security treaties to the U.S. in the United States. It is a achievable goal, but if his dancing global strategy on his domestic agenda may alleviate the Democratic Senator and give him a victory that may bring the Nobel Peace Prize, It can be challenged.
It takes time to solve all of these works, and you are unlikely to live while visiting Netanyahu’s Washington DC. Early visits from Trump to Saudi Arabia can help you move your package, but it may not be enough to complete it.
The suggested sequences that Trump and Netaniyahu have to discuss are:
Locks to the second phase of hostage trading. In the case of Smotrich Bilt, Netanyahu should call a snap election. He participates in the contest with considerable assets. All Israelites are at home with their family.
He inherits the prospect of Saudi’s normalization to Israeli voters, and he has more centralists (Benny Gantz or Yaa Rapid) or the ugly right wing (naphtari Bennet or Avigdor I have a reasonable chance to return to the Prime Minister as a core partner of Leberman). The Israeli election also gives the United States and Saudi agreements mature, and Trump will provide time to develop a political strategy to maintain a Democratic Senator for a treaty in late 2025.
The drawback of this approach is the lost time. The Israeli election and the formation of the government can freeze their intentional decisions for up to six months. Trump certainly remembers to repeat Israel’s election during his first term. However, the realistic evaluation of the time and political conditions required to solidify this transaction has revealed that strategic patience is a better part of wisdom.