MADRID – On February 3, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Vice President of Strategy for Iran, released a comprehensive strategic roadmap, a strategic consensus document on national security.
During a gathering in Tehran attended by journalists, Zarif said the document was devised with the help of a team of scholars, analysts, historians and officials working for him.
From a historical perspective from the Qajar era to the Islamic Revolution, the document points to the constant threat of Iran’s security due to its vulnerability to external actors. Based on this, it highlights the role of the Islamic Republic as a guarantor of national stability and its strategic approach on the international stage over the past 40 years.
The initiative is presented as an exercise in “historical and rational calculations” and is directed at both the international community and various sectors of Iranian society. It has two purposes. On the other hand, building a consistent narrative about national security. Meanwhile, amid growing regional and international tensions, we outline the roadmap for its effective implementation.
Zarif began his analysis by positioning what he described as “the first act of Iran’s modern history.” This is a period characterized by conflicts that not only redefine the status of the region, but also resulted in vulnerability to major world powers. In the early 19th century, the country was caught up in two wars with Russia (1804–1813 and 1826–1828), resulting in the loss of the vast territory of the Caucasus. The Golestan and Turkmenchey treaties sealed these defeats and, according to documents, led an era of foreign intervention that shaped Iran’s political and economic development for over a century.
This sustained external pressure has hindered the integration of strong internal structures and prevented the formation of a stable governance model, the report claims. Throughout the 19th century, Iran became a battlefield for the interests of the empire between Russia and Britain. This is a dynamic that intensified in the 20th century with the discovery of oil. The exploitation of natural resources by foreign companies, coupled with externally imposed economic pressure, further undermined the country’s sovereignty. In this context, nationalist movements and reform efforts emerged, shaping the trajectory of Iran in the following centuries.
Law 2: 1945-1970 – Turn to the West
Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the second half of the 20th century marked a turning point in Iranian politics, characterized by increasingly close lining the West, particularly the US and the UK. Following the allied occupation during World War II and subsequent withdrawal of foreign troops, Iran has been wary of growing Soviet influence, and Washington is in pursuit of stability, economic aid and military support. We strengthened our relationship with
Tehran tried to maintain some degree of autonomy by maintaining a limited relationship with Moscow, but its foreign policy was ultimately defined by its dependence on the West. Economic growth supported by oil exploitation is highly controlled by foreign interests, but in the next decades it created internal tensions that ultimately led to political and social transformation.
Act 3: 1970-1979 – Integration of dependency
In the 1970s, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi coincided Iran’s position with Nixon’s doctrine and integrated its role as a US strategic alliance in the Persian Gulf. With unprecedented military and economic support from Washington, the Iranian monarch adopted an interventionist foreign policy to expand his influence in the region.
One of the most important milestones of this era was Iranian intervention in Dofal (Oman) in 1973. The Iranian forces restrained a left-wing rebellion that threatened the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, which achieved Iran’s first military victory over a century. Shortly afterwards, between 1974 and 1975, Iran clashed with Iraq over the control of the Shatt Al Arab Waterway, a conflict that reached its peak with the signature of the Algiers Agreement, giving Tehran a strategic advantage over Baghdad. I acknowledged it.
However, the expansion of the region contrasted with increased internal instability. Shah’s dependence on the US, combined with economic inequality and rising social unrest, has encouraged widespread dissatisfaction. These tensions eventually erupted in the Islamic Revolution of 1979, overthrowing his regime and entering a new era in Iran.
Law 4: 1979-2019 – Challenge the international order
The Islamic Revolution of 1979 marked a turning point in Iran’s modern history and redefine its position at a global stage. With the collapse of the Shah and the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the country adopted a foreign policy centered on the independence and rebellion of the Western-led international order.
The most important episode of this period was against Iraq (1980-1988), the conflict that saw Iran resist invasion without transferring its territory for the first time since 1796. Despite facing Iraqi forces supported by the United States, the Soviet Union and the monarchy of the Persian Gulf, Tehran maintained the war for eight years, solidified its resilience and reconstructed its military doctrine.
Act 5: 2019-2024 – Achieving balance
In recent years, Iran has become more capable of stopping and responding to enemies, establishing it as a key actor in the region. Zarif believes that a combination of calculated military action and diplomatic manipulation has helped Tehran to avert direct conflict with powers like the US and Israel, while strengthening its influence in West Asia.
One of the most iconic moments of this questionable strategy came in 2019 when Iran fired down a US drone over the Gulf of Oman and tested Washington’s limits without causing military escalation. A year later, the US assassination of General Qasaem Soleimani of Baghdad marked a significant turning point in bilateral relations. In response, Iran began a missile strike at Iraq’s Ain Al-Asad base. This is an unprecedented retaliation that, despite its effects, did not lead to an open war.
Most recently, on April 13, 2024, Iran launched a direct attack on Israel in retaliation for the bombing of the Syrian consulate. This indicated a change in strategy and chose a direct response from its own territory. The operation reaffirmed Iran’s deterrent capabilities, demonstrated willingness to respond to external attacks, and restructured the balance of regional power.
During this period, Iran strengthened its position without causing a full-scale war, combining it with a calculated show of pragmatism to solidify its role in the new regional order.
Iran: 220 years of security pursuit
Historical analysis ended with a statement of category: a century and a half later, there is more than 30 years of consistency and dependence after military defeat, territorial loss, and foreign interference were marked, but Iran is In 1979, he embarked on a transformational process and established itself. Self-sufficiency in security and defense.
After historic analysis, Zarif outlines the measures necessary to ensure long-term stability, and Iran must go beyond a purely military approach and address internal and external strategic challenges. I emphasized that. In this regard, the National Security Consensus Strategic Document identifies several key challenges over the next few years.
Of these, the environmental crisis stands out as an urgent threat. Water rarity and soil degradation have seriously undermined the country’s sustainability. At home, social cohesion is recognized as an important pillar, focusing on reducing inequality and strengthening national identity as a bedrock of stability.
The report also highlights the need to move from a defensive stance to a development-driven strategy. To achieve this, Iran must close the gap with regional competitors through economic and technological advances, while simultaneously improving its international forecasts.
Another pressing challenge is to overcome the effects of sanctions, which limit access to critical markets. Gradual economic liberalization and strengthened foreign investment have been proposed as important routes to ensure sustainable growth.
In conclusion, the document has a practical vision that incorporates Iran’s military power and a more prominent role in the international stage in the face of ongoing geopolitical changes. They argue that there must be a balance between
At the end of the presentation, the Vice President of Strategy addressed concerns about the country’s current challenges with a determined message.
“We have faced a variety of challenges for 40 years. Those who believe they will succumb to recent difficulties should know what they did long ago if they would surrender.”