TEHRAN – Donald Trump began his second term when the US president succumbed to bringing Iran to the negotiation table. But not through respect and practical expression, but rather through the threat of new economic pressures and occasional military action.
Analysts are considering Trump’s comments about “bombing hell from Iran.” Military action against Iran is considered too dangerous and costly for the US administration. The risk of inducing Iran to pursue nuclear weapons. Possibility to destroy retaliatory missile attacks on Israel, the US military and related assets.
But Trump’s threat to further straddle Iran’s economy appears to hold his weight. He will certainly look for ways to harm Iran economically, particularly by trying to shrink its most important source of income: oil revenue.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent said Washington aims to bring Iran’s oil exports to less than 10% of current levels. “We are committed to reverting Iranians to 100,000 barrels of oil exports a day,” he told Fox Business on Friday. However, he did not detail how the US planned it.
Bessent estimated Iran’s current exports at between 1.5 and 1.6 million barrels per day. However, semi-official reports suggest numbers close to 4 million.
The US has two options to prevent Iranian oil sales. One is to grab Iranian oil during maritime relocations.
Joe Biden pursued the strategy in 2023, but Iran retaliated by confiscating the same tanker several months later and unloading comparable amounts of crude oil. Biden never tried another seizure again, and it appears that no company is still willing to buy the oil he confiscated, fearing Iran’s retaliation.
Another option is to have Iranian crude customers stop buying. Tehran is believed to sell its oil to several countries, but China is far the largest and most important buyer.
Trump’s success in forcing Iran to ink on the deal he wants has led to China’s imports of crude oil from Tehran, a widely shared view by his advisors, American think tanks and influential Western media. It may largely depend on his ability to stop him. The consensus is that Washington should potentially put pressure on Beijing through tariffs or Taiwan’s issues. While some suggest that concessions may be effective, this approach is generally contradictory to Trump’s style.
Contrary to these figures and institutions, Hamed Vafai, a well-known Chinese expert at Tehran University, significantly reduces oil purchases from misconceptions that China has approached Iran and Beijing’s foreign policy the same I believe in this concept. Light. He argues, “If you look at China’s foreign policy, Beijing sometimes does not allow third countries to influence their bilateral relations.” He quotes the South and North Korea as examples, saying, “China is the biggest economic partner of both Seoul and Pyongyang despite the ongoing state of war between them. Iran and Saudi Arabia are also strong. Examples: Even the two countries’ biggest economic partners and brokered a settlement between Tehran and Riyadh in 2023, this approach is in stark contrast to Washington’s approach, which tends to place the country on a clear bloc. He added that there is.
As private Chinese companies may be susceptible to threats, the new threat could still have some impact on oil sales to China, Vafayi acknowledged. But economic analyst Majid Shakkari said the resulting trade decline, as has been in the past, will likely be temporary.
“Since the so-called maximum pressure campaign was launched in 2018, there have been two clear periods when the US tried to limit Iran’s oil supply to China,” Shakeri explained. “In both cases, sales fell temporarily, but Washington regained momentum without easing pressure.” He said that these efforts were not the case as the US is trying to block natural phenomena. He claimed it had failed. He is the owner of the world’s second largest oil reserve, selling crude oil to the world’s largest consumers.
Furthermore, China seeks to resist US pressure due to the potential and geopolitical consequences of replacing Iran as an oil supplier. “The alternative to approximately 15% of China’s oil consumption sourced from Iran is either the US, its closely controlled Arab countries, or Russia, where all already sell oil to Beijing. That’s it,” Shakeri said. “In either case, Beijing doesn’t want to risk an increase in dependence. China prioritizes diversifying its energy sources. Buying oil from American groups will help the US get pressure tools Furthermore, Beijing is seeking to avoid greater dependence on Russia: rivalry between two superpowers in certain areas.