Early on February 17, 2025, a magnitude 4 earthquake occurred at a depth of 5 km near the prison park in Dohorakawan, New Delhi.
Seismicity in the New Delhi region has shown a prominent feature over the past 30 years. Of the 26 earthquakes of more than four sizes in the area around New Delhi in the past 20 years, 24 events have been linked to the past 12 years and since 2012.
This seismicity focuses on the west side of Delhi, near the vast groundwater abstraction area.
The area is in the medium to high earthquake risk category of seismic zoning maps in New Delhi, India.
Historically, New Delhi has experienced several major earthquakes. For example, notable earthquakes include the 1720 magnitude 6.5 earthquake and the 1956 magnitude 6.7 Bulandshahr earthquake. Minor to moderate earthquakes have been affecting New Delhi for the past 30 years, especially from the mid-1990s to 2025.
The magnitude 6.8 Uttarakhand earthquake (1991) affected northern India. The 1999 Chamori earthquake (6.6) also had an impact in New Delhi.
The 2015 Golkanepal earthquake (7.8) caused tremors in northern India, including New Delhi. Thus, in recent decades, these events indicate that New Delhi itself has not experienced any major earthquakes directly, but are shaking and vulnerable to trembling from nearby areas such as the Himalayas.
Overextraction of groundwater in Delhi led to positive land subsidence. Radar sensors show that Delhi undergoes an average annual deformation of 15 mm.
Groundwater level data shows 20 cm of subsidence in some areas over the past 20 years. The annual subsidence rate of 11-17 cm near Indira Gandhi International Airport is associated with the compression of aquifers where the groundwater table is decreasing.
This subsidence can change the distribution of underground stresses and make fault systems unstable.
Excessive pumping reduces negative pressure in the aquifer, compressing the clay layer and sinking the ground. Land subsidence in the New Delhi region has been growing concern over the past 30 years and is influenced by a variety of human and natural factors. The rate of land subsidence is primarily influenced by groundwater extraction, urbanization and geological conditions.
Historically, New Delhi has experienced significant land subsidence due to rapid urban development and increased demand for water resources. Groundwater extraction is a major contributor to this phenomenon.
A study conducted in the early 1990s showed that the city experienced a rate of 1-2 cm per year in certain areas. In recent years, satellite-based remote sensing technologies such as Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (INSAR) have provided more accurate measurements of land subsidence in urban areas, including New Delhi.
A study published around 2020 showed that certain parts of New Delhi experienced higher subsidence rates, with some regions showing a percentage of 5 cm or more per year showing approximately 20 cm per year. I did.
As of February 2025, research shows that some areas continue to experience significant ground subsidence, but ongoing research using advanced technology has shown that ground subsidence is also the urban planning of New Delhi. It suggests that it is an important issue for sustainability.
Although subsidence itself does not directly cause earthquakes, it can regulate stress on existing faults. For example, the Delhi Ridge and the Aravalli fault system are currently seismically active, and changes in stress due to subsidence can affect fault stability. The rapid urbanization of Delhi has introduced non-tectonic horizontal compression due to the accumulated weight of buildings and infrastructure. Groundwater dynamics can stabilize or destabilize obstacles.
In areas with heavy groundwater withdrawal (such as Kapashera), stress from subsidence can dominate, and earthquake vulnerability increases.
The location of seismic zone IV (moderate to high risk) and its soft alluvial soils amplify seismic waves and more strongly sense moderate tremors (e.g., the 2025 Daura Kwan earthquake 4 earthquake 4).
The shallow depth of the 2025 earthquake (5 km) amplified the impact around the epicenter as seismic waves dissipated less energy before reaching Earth. Areas like Kapashela, which are currently subsided due to groundwater losses, are located near the fault zone.
Changes in stress in this area can reactivate dormant faults. Over 80% of Delhi buildings cannot withstand earthquakes, increasing the risk of collapse during trembling.