Hong Kong
CNN
–
President Donald Trump’s push to end the war in Ukraine appears poised to hand over important concessions to Russia, with Kiev and its European supporters saying they are on the verge of peace deals around their heads Leave bystanders in the face of the outlook.
But they are not the only major players working on Trump’s extreme fallout to Russia, and have disrupted US foreign policy for years with a rapid diplomatic outbreak.
Even in Beijing, the event’s fierce turn raises questions about how the US peace drive will affect a carefully built partnership with Chinese leader Xi Jinping President Vladimir Putin It is seen as
Just a few weeks ago, China appeared to be aiming for a key role in Trump’s Ukrainian peace efforts. The US leader has repeatedly proposed that they could work with Xi to help end the conflict using China’s economic shaking over Russia. It is an important leverage for Beijing as it aims to avoid a trade war with the world’s largest economy.
It presents its position as a neutral party and voice in the global South, ready to mediate peace in a shattering conflict, even if NATO accused Moscow’s defense industry of double use. It would have been consistent with Beijing’s years of efforts to do so. China is defending “normal trade.”
Now, Beijing is discovering that he is not involved in negotiations as a Russian ally, nor is he also involved in the voice of Global Gravita. At the very least, observers are left outside the rapid development that they say surprised Chinese officials. advantage.
It has a high interest for XI, and has been enthusiastically cultivated both his personal ties with his “old friend” Putin over the years, as well as his relationship with his country and Russia.
Chinese leaders took the risks calculated three years ago when Russian tanks rolled over the Ukrainian border. His choice to condemn its invasion and not let his country act as a lifeline for Putin – wrapping Russian oil and supplying Moscow with key goods – is to work closer to NATO in Asia They lost European trust and galvanized American allies.
Recently, Chinese officials have expressed their approval of a “accord” between the US and Russia to begin peace talks.
“China supports all efforts to encourage peace negotiations,” diplomat Wang Yi said at a UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday that day the top officials in Saudi Arabia met. He said he met to lay the foundation for negotiations to end the fight. Ukraine.
However, recent comments from American officials may have drawn attention from Beijing to potential US goals in order to work with Russia.
Among the four key points being discussed in Riyadh, US diplomat Marco Rubio named the potential for future “geopolitical and economic cooperation” between Washington and Moscow.
A few days ago, Trump administration’s Russian Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg said during a panel discussion in Munich that the US wanted Putin to “force” him to “unpleasant” behavior. .
Observers are skeptical that Washington could shatter Russia-China relations given its deep alignment with the US-led order and Moscow’s established economic dependence on Beijing.
But Trump, who has repeatedly publicly praised both Putin and XI, is likely to unravel their bonds, in China, and is likely to be highlighted by an echo of his neighbour’s past mistrust. There are concerns that may be unfolding.
In 1969, a conflict between Soviet Russia and the Republic of China erupted a fierce territorial dispute along their long shared borders, and was largely resolved in the 1990s.
Then there is the diplomatic coup engineered by President Richard Nixon and his advisor Henry Kissinger. Henry Kissinger uses the division between communist-controlled neighbours to establish relations with Beijing and shakes the Cold War balance of America’s favor.
While that history is unlikely to repeat itself, observers say that even hints for new changes in loyalty are a boon to Washington’s goals.
“Even if it’s just 30% of ‘Reverse Nixons’…it’s a seed of doubt,” said Yun Sang, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
“It will raise questions about the strategic integrity that Xi Jinping has spent the past 12 years building up with Russia.
When the day comes when China decides to invade Taiwan, “The Chinese see their backs, what are Russia going to do?” she refers to the self-responsibility of the island of democracy. added Beijing’s claim. “And for the US, it’s deterrence.”
However, others say that Beijing may have great confidence in its relationship with Moscow.
“China-Russia relations are in their own leagues, and they have strong grounds and strong institutional ties over the past decades,” said a senior fellow at the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University in Shanghai. One Yu Bin said.
Yu pointed out the need to promote multilateralism and build their own international organizations, such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Agency, as well as maintain the stability of their own borders. “I don’t think either side will let it go because Trump has been there for four years,” he said.
Instead, China is worried that “If Russia and the US patch their differences and achieve some peace in Ukraine, it will free the Trump administration to focus on China.”
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegses last week said last week that the US could not focus primarily on continental security when it had to prioritize “deterring war with China.” He signaled the same way when he spoke.
If Trump had not been able to directly engage with Putin, Beijing might have tried to ease friction with the US by working with Washington to bring Russian leaders to the table, but now China It is unclear whether this will play any role in the future Ukraine peace negotiations.
However, observers say that if an agreement is reached, Beijing can send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine through the United Nations and is keen to play a role in the country’s reconstruction.
For now, Chinese officials have used the recent spike in diplomacy to try and win the lost love with Europe. “Nodding to the rights to European table seating.
At the same time, they also wanted the possibility of playing their role, implying that Trump’s obvious turn to Putin proved Beijing’s stance was far more correct.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has raised the prospect that it could seek to recruit China as its own ally.
Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky, who has received little attention from Beijing since the start of the war, suggested just as much as he could, following Saturday’s meeting with German Chinese diplomats and Ukrainian officials.
“It’s important to help us get involved in China and put pressure on Putin to end the war,” Zelensky said at a press conference Tuesday. “This is primarily the case in which all the processes are It’s due to the fact that it’s currently accelerating.”
As to who should be at the negotiation table, the Ukrainian leader added: “We are ready to ensure security, provide support, stop Putin and take responsibility for investment in Ukraine’s recovery.”