Tehran – The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (officially a joint comprehensive plan of action, or JCPOA) includes a “snapback” mechanism.
Following the withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and subsequent re-challenges of sanctions against Iran, Washington confiscated its legal right to invoke the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism. Under the agreement, Iran has pledged to limit nuclear activities in exchange for the end of sanctions, and the US withdrawal has become a major setback in the successful transaction.
The remaining non-Iranian signatories – Germany, Britain, France, China and Russia probably have strong incentives to avoid the triggers of snapbacks. Tehran has threatened to consider withdrawing from the NPT if snapbacks were called, claiming that it has begun to reduce some of its JCPOA commitments after the US withdrawal and some of its JCPOA commitments after the remaining signatories did not adequately mitigate the effects of Western sanctions. Furthermore, it argues that Iran has continued to cooperate fully with the IAEA and has not launched efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
Given these circumstances, why is the other parties at risk of triggering a dramatic response by triggering a snapback mechanism if Iran supports the remaining JCPOA commitments and refrains from further escalating nuclear activity? Iran is already facing heavy sanctions, and existing UN sanctions could have minimal additional impacts. So why force a potential withdrawal from the NPT? While many have a hard time figuring out whether the European trio are still willing to escalate tensions, the latest US action, widely recognized as European humiliation regarding Ukraine, provides clues.
When the war in Ukraine began in early 2022, European powers were forced to separate their economy from Russia and pour billions of dollars into Ukraine to help Kiev fight Washington’s proxy war. Europeans then experience unprecedented inflation, suggesting that the economy enters a recession and that the continent’s long-term outlook will move ahead.
But today, it appears that US President Donald Trump is cutting contracts with Russia in the war with Ukraine, and I don’t care if Europeans want to be part of it. When Americans and Russians convened in Riyadh this month to discuss the end of the war, neither Europe nor Ukraine were allowed to sit at the negotiation table. Recently, Trump also killed a UN resolution proposed by a European trio that condemned Russian invasion.
There is not much that Europe can do about the current unstable nation. If the chairman of the Munich Security Conference leaves tears up as he gave a speech at the end of the summit earlier this month. This reality may help us understand why Europe continues to expand tensions with Iran, despite knowing that the outcome would not benefit it.
“The reality is that the European Union and the UK cannot act independently from the US on the international stage,” says Medi Kanalizadeh, a Western Asian analyst and academic. “Christophe Husgen, crying in Munich, showed this fact. Europe doesn’t want Russia to win in Ukraine. But it has to go ahead with the plans that Washington has deployed for it.”
Political representatives from Iran, Germany, France, the UK and the EU have been holding multiple consultations on a variety of issues, including the fate of the JCPOA. Iran’s Minister of Justice and International Affairs, Qasem Galibabadi told Iranian media that new consultations are likely to be held within three weeks. However, Khanalizadeh believes that the potential activation of snapbacks depends on Washington, not on the outcome of ongoing negotiations.
“European military and security relies primarily on the US. If they are told to enable the snapback mechanism, they will do that even if they think the movement is not in line with their interests,” the expert said.