Shanghai – March 10, 2025 marks the second anniversary of the major events of the Iranian-Saudi settlement under Chinese mediation two years ago. Sustainability once doubted that the rivalry between the two was long and profound, but the process ultimately proved to be stable and successful, which contributed to regional stability.
We will see new momentum for the settlement over the next few years, but we will need to invest new efforts. And the settlement will become part of the future regional order arrangement.
Over the past two years, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been steadily reconciliation. The late Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi visited Saudi Arabia in November 2023 and participated in a conference of Islamic and Arab countries over the Palestinian issue. Incumbent Iranian President Pezeshkian, the Saudi Crown Prince and the Prime Minister exchanged telephone dialogue in November 2024. The two conducted more frequent dialogues by different means at the military and foreign minister level. Three political parties, Iran, Saudi Arabia and China, held two trilateral meetings in 2023 and 2024, at the level of vice ministers, respectively.
There are many reasons why it contributes to the sustainability of the process, but primarily in that reconciliation follows the regional aspirations of peace and stability. After decades of conflict and frustration, the region is in urgent need for stability, but still faces serious challenges as a result of Israel’s invasion of the legitimate rights of Palestinians. Furthermore, it is in line with the global macrotrends for peace and stability, with the Middle East part.
The importance of reconciliation cannot be emphasized sufficiently, particularly in the context of the latest round of the Palestinian-Israel conflict since October 7, 2023. The region has fallen into the most severe confusion as a result of the conflict and its turmoil. Though turbulent, the area minimizes the required stability. Reconciliation should be one of the major factors contributing to such stability.
The settlement also benefited Iran and Saudi Arabia in a variety of ways, respectively. The reconciliation allowed Iran to strengthen diplomatic relations with its neighbours in a rather comfortable way, allowing it to focus its resources on fighting regional turmoil. And Saudi Arabia is using the settlement to promote some of its most important national and regional agendas.
It should be noted that for the future, settlements should be an integral part of regional order. Iran and Saudi Arabia are both the most powerful regional players in terms of political and strategic influence. Both the two territories order large numbers of territories, vast groups and abundant resources, and the two represent important cultural and traditional influences. Put another way, sustainable reconciliation can help maintain the peace and stability needed. Conflicts resulting from the confusion of the settlement will make the region even more dangerous. And the two are neighbors who don’t leave.
Fortunately, the settlement is being reinforced by the new regional dynamics. First, their shared support for the Palestinian legal causes will work together. While the two have different positions on solving the Palestinian problem, they share the same solidarity as the legitimate rights of the Palestinians at both the national and people’s levels.
It is the exact same reason that Saudi Arabia has held several meetings on the Palestinian issue since October 7, 2023, with the late Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi visiting Saudi Arabia in November 2023 for a meeting, where the two held several dialogues. These show that interaction with the Palestinian issue anyway becomes a new dynamic in the relationship between the two. And the future will see more interactions between the two about this very important cause.
Second, the perception of maintaining security on your own will be a new momentum for reconciliation. In fact, the success of the 2023 settlement was largely in the local perception that security assurances for external actors are fantastic, a settlement that helped to create a stable and peaceful neighborhood instead of the security assurances of external forces. The Ukrainian story that the US abandons is supposed to be a fresh lesson for learning. Reliance on external actors is by no means a real solution. Political solutions to conflicts may be the least expensive, and settlements may be the best way to maintain security. This kind of perception will become stronger in the future.
Third, rebuilding the local order requires the two to cooperate with each other. The final months have seen Israeli Netanyahu boast of his plan to create a new Middle Eastern order. Netanyahu’s scheme, no matter how beautifully coated, means Israel’s security and maximizing territorial interests. Whether it drives away the Palestinians or occupy Palestinians, Lebanese or Syrian territory, it will oppose the long-lost position of both Iran and Saudi Arabia, and undermine their geopolitical interest and reputation. The two, once realized, will need to work together to provide a more balanced and fair local order. This kind of cooperation is also a new dynamic of the interaction between the two.
Overall, the 2023 Iran-Saudi Arabia settlement should be a true milestone in modern Middle Eastern history. Its success lies in the fact that it is part of a regional aspiration for peace and stability, and that the importance of the event is far beyond the interests of both countries. It benefits the entire region. In the future, reconciliation will be empowered by new regional dynamics and become an integral part of regional order.
Dr. Jin Liangxiang is a senior researcher at Shanghai International Institute (SIIS).