MADRID – The President’s Intelligence Bureau of the Iraqi Parliamentary Economic Committee has announced that Atwan al-Atwani has met with Daniel Rubinstein, Chage de Affairs of the US Embassy, and his delegation.
It was discussed during a conference marked by increasing economic pressure on Iraq, bilateral relations and sanctions imposed by Washington on Iran’s Islamic Republic. These restrictions threaten to exacerbate Iraq’s already volatile energy situation, especially at a critical moment in the country’s electricity supply.
Al Atwani stressed the need to maintain a constant communications channel with the United States, but also warned of the consequences of halting Iran’s gas imports. Iraq relies heavily on this supply to maintain this electrical grid, and the expiration of the sanctions exemption granted by Washington could lead to massive blackouts over the summer, which could affect millions of citizens as temperatures rise.
The US sanctions policy put Baghdad in a difficult situation. While Iraq is struggling to rebuild its economy and stabilize its energy infrastructure, Washington’s restrictions complicate access to critical resources. Regional analysts point out that the US stance on cutting Iraq’s ties with Iran is based not on a practical approach but on a geopolitical pressure strategy that ignores the reality of the Iraqi energy market.
In this context, Al-Atwani revealed to Rubinstein that there is no short-term viable alternative to replacing Iranian gas. Estimates suggest that a complete replacement takes 3-4 years, and a rushed cutting attempt can have devastating consequences. Iraq finds himself trapped between Washington’s geopolitical interests and the urgent need to secure electricity supply for its population.
Despite Baghdad’s demands, the US has decided not to renew its sanctions exemption dated back to 2018, when Washington reimposes Tehran restrictions after Trump withdraws from nuclear deals with Iran. The exemption allowed Iraq to purchase electricity from Iran in line with the former president’s “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran.
In a statement issued Sunday, the US State Department explained that the decision not to renew the waiver was made to “prevent Iran from granting economic or financial relief.”
For the time being, the lack of Iran’s gas imports could cause a serious energy deficit in Iraq. According to Ahmad Musa, a spokesman for Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity, if gas imports are also prohibited, the country could lose more than 30% of its electricity supply. The government is seeking alternatives, he said. Additionally, a senior official from the Ministry of Electricity said Iraq could lose around 8,000 megawatts of electricity from plants operating on Iranian gas and another 500 megawatts of electricity directly supplied by Iran.
Three Iraqi energy sector officials who spoke with Reuters agreed that there is no immediate alternative to replacing energy imported from Iran. Meanwhile, many Iraqis rely on diesel generators or face temperatures above 50 degrees Celsius during the summer, further exacerbating the country’s energy crisis.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araguchi expressed his regret through social media platform X after learning of the US decision, saying, “It is very unfortunate that the US government has decided to take the innocent people of Iraq, particularly on the eve of the warm months ahead of the year, of basic services such as electricity,” Araaguchi further emphasized: “We stand by the people of Iraq and reaffirm our commitment to the Iraqi government to act against the illegal measures of the US.”
Washington’s refusal to renew the sanctions exemption for Iraq will spark a consensus among several analysts about the outcome of the decision, potentially creating an unprecedented internal crisis in the country. With the hot season and summer approaching, lack of energy access can lead to widespread anxiety in Iraq. This is a country that already faces major challenges in terms of energy infrastructure and basic services.
In response, Iraqi Foreign Minister Huad Hussein acknowledged the growing pressure from the US, but emphasized that Baghdad was not entirely in line with Trump’s anti-Iran strategy. Hussein argued that Iraq will continue to balance relations with both Washington and Tehran.
Iraqi authorities now find themselves at a critical intersection and face difficult decisions that mark the country’s turning point. Whatever their decision, whether it is to continue importing gas from Iran and reducing imports against US sanctions, both channels take significant risks and present unprecedented challenges to the Iraqi government.