CNN
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Air bases as targets, warnings for hours, and the number of missiles generated in some of the world’s best air defense systems is limited. Iran’s retaliation for a US weekend strike at three nuclear facilities is designed to deinduce.
U.S. Ardeid Air Force Base in Qatar was evacuated a few days ago, with satellite images showing the resignation of planes and personnel widely published in the media. It is the region’s most important US airbase and home to Central Command. Iranian national media has launched a drone that killed General Qasem Soleimani, the top military personality of Iran. Monday’s strike against the Aldead provided Iran the perfect moment to save the semi-absurd face, with the possibility of American casualties close to zero.
The first hint of a possible strike came when the US embassy in Doha, Qatar issued an emergency “shelter” order to US citizens. As if to remove suspicion, Qatar closed its airspace about an hour before Iran launched what appears to be close to a dozen missiles. In addition to the favorable conditions for Iran’s declining Arsenal launch, Qatar is close enough to allow the use of shorter range missiles, and its stock is as undepleted as the medium missiles that hit Israel last week.
To pour water into something similar to a flame, the Iranian National Security Council said the number of missiles fired at the moment after the attack was “as many bombs used in attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.” Packing the barrage of hell as a definition of proportional response, the Iranian statement went on to argue that the attack “has no dangerous aspect to our friendly, brother Qatar and its noble people.”
Tehran’s method of retaliation was successfully tested and tested. After Soleimani was killed, the retaliatory missile attack on US Al-Assad Air Force Base in Iraq, reportedly telegraphed to Baghdad in advance, and could possibly help reduce the level of injuries in the US, which suffers primarily from concussions. Iran’s response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Hanie in July 2024 was heavily telegraphed in the heart of Tehran.
“They knew they were going to retaliate. There was a similar response after Soleimani,” a senior White House official said Monday night.
It appears that a playbook has been formed. But it exacerbates Iran’s military debilitation with each adoption. In 2020, the Islamic Republic lost its Iranian hardlin hero, an outstanding military personality. In 2024, valuable allies showed that they were not safe in central Tehran. This year, the administration lost control of its own airspace to a point of previously unthinkable strike at their respected nuclear facilities by both Israel and the United States.
This is evidence of the different forces on display. Iran must pretend to be its strength with a controlled presentation of restrained, calm and angry. The US and Israel will break taboos every day, crushing Iran’s long-standing position as regional power within 10 days, and ending its ambitions of being nuclear power.
Currently, there is only one real red line left for the US or Israel to cross. It is to directly target Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But given the possibility, it may seem unwise. It is better to accept toothless retaliation amid the slow decline in Tehran.
Each expression of Iranian rage confirmed the slow erosion of its power. Angry fledgling nuclear power would have accelerated its race to the atomic bomb. That may still happen. However, it appears that Iran is desperately hoping that he can protect the rest of the hardliners that have been destroyed by Israeli strikes. You may even want to go back to diplomacy. Talks to contain nuclear programs and ballistic missile stockpiles could have been severely exhausted in the shadows of just 10 days ago.