The first phase of the London-Gaza ceasefire plan includes the release of prisoners on both sides, in addition to injecting aid into the Gaza Strip. This includes the withdrawal of Israeli occupying entities to the “yellow line”, or the first phase of withdrawal. Trump’s most important objective is to show that he achieved the deal.
However, this does not mean that the rest of the plan will go smoothly, it is more complicated and will not materialize right away. This includes, among other things, the disarmament of the resistance movement, the removal of resistance leaders from Gaza, the complete withdrawal from Gaza, and how Gaza will be governed. Therefore, the chaos and chaos in public order will continue.
It is unlikely that the situation will fully explode at the military level. Rather, it is more likely that military operations involving targeted attacks and assassinations will continue, as observed in Lebanon.
A mere agreement to stop the war would recognize a new balance of power in which resistance still exists. Stopping the war would be admitting that the resistance still existed and that it could not be defeated militarily. This applies to the general situation across the region.
According to the American plan, a president and prime minister were appointed after the ceasefire with Lebanon late last year. This was in hopes of containing and disarming the Lebanese resistance. America considered this a defeat for the resistance. However, this is not the reality on the ground. The United States will attempt to do this in Gaza as well, with a direct Arab and international role and through documents prepared on the governance of Gaza.
A successful U.S. intervention aimed at removing resistance from the state’s civil government could pave the way for a new arrangement. Meanwhile, security and military operations will continue in a targeted manner. However, the main goal of militarily eliminating Gaza’s resistance, seizing their weapons, and Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza will not be achieved.
This prevents the situation from moving toward a full resolution, as Israeli entities will continue to carry out targeted assassinations. Therefore, moves to impose a new civilian government in Gaza with Palestinian, Arab and international roles are not expected to be stable and successful. The first celebratory phase, which includes the release of hostages, is scheduled to be completed, but other phases are still subject to concessions.
The biggest gain for the American and Israeli entities after two years of war is that the entire resistance is now forced to end the war. This is an acknowledgment that the war ended without annihilating the Resistance, meaning that it still exists.
Fighting is shifting to other forms that are more security-oriented than military-oriented and more political in nature. This is an achievement for the Resistance in that it has prevented the enemy from achieving its stated goal of eliminating the Resistance.
As for the Iranian and Lebanese fronts, pressure is expected to continue, and a full-scale war is unlikely. Efforts are likely to be less military and more oriented towards achieving objectives through security and political pressure.
In other words, the security and political situation in the next stage will be fragile and unstable.