CNN
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At the heart of the Kremlin’s complex relationship with the Middle East has long been awkward tension.
On the one hand, Russian alliances and economic influences have traditionally been strong.
Meanwhile, as one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, Russia tends to benefit when things in energy-rich regions are disappointed and the market is surprised.
That’s exactly what’s unfolding for now, and the Kremlin is benefiting from seeing Iran’s allies being dramatically weakened by Israeli airstrikes.
In the face of that, Russia has a lot to lose.
Iran was a particularly useful “strategic partner” for the Kremlin, not only sharing a light-heartedness on Western values and influence, but also provided the Russian army with a vast squadron of Shahed air drones, allowing for the relentless bombardment of Ukraine.
Much of that drone production has certainly been around since its move to Russia. However, Ukraine’s own drones are shocking the Russian production facility behind the frontline, which could ultimately overlook the once-reliable supply of Iran.
There is also a faint, painful sense of humiliation, when the Kremlin rises to see yet another important Middle Eastern alliance under ferocious artillery fire, and doesn’t want to intervene or intervene.
Moscow, of course, issued a strong verbal statement denounced Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities as “illegal,” adding that the strike is creating “an unacceptable threat to international security.”
He also accused Western countries of manipulating the situation and “resolving political scores.”
However, Russia’s alliance with Iran did not extend to defending the Islamic Republic, and there was no offer from the Kremlin for military support.
It is certainly true that Israel’s purpose, the collapse of the Iranian regime, will now add Iran to the growing Kremlin list of lost Middle Eastern alliances and client states, including Iraq, Libya and, more recently, Syria.
But here’s another troublesome tension. Things aren’t as bad as they look for Moscow. In fact, this latest Middle Eastern conflict works very well in the hands of the Kremlin.
The Iran-Israel conflict has also opened up tarping in addition to the welcoming financial blowout, courtesy of the price of crude oil spikes, to the Kremlin’s diplomatic opportunities, which have faced years of international isolation in the war in Ukraine.
Russia has never stopped looking at itself as a major player in international diplomacy, as it has a legitimate place on the top table alongside the US and China.
Currently, the Kremlin has the challenges that emerge as essential US partners when it comes to being able to work productively with the US and ultimately patching the region again.
As the only major political leader with direct boundaries between Iranians, Israelis and the United States, Russian President Vladimir Putin has already carefully utilised his vital position, signing his willingness to cast Russia as a key power broker in the Middle East.
In a recent call to the White House, Putin reminded President Donald Trump of how Russia has long been an ally of the US on Iran’s nuclear issue.
It appears that the White House may be open to that idea. Following the call, President Trump expressed his willingness to view Russian leaders as potential mediators of the conflict.
Since the start of President Trump’s second term, Washington and Moscow have been desperate to find a way to broaden their relationship beyond the narrow focus on the Ukrainian war. Iran’s fate and its nuclear ambitions, along with Arctic economic cooperation and space exploration, unexpectedly re-emerged as another field of potential common interest.
It’s a huge boon for the Kremlin, and perhaps for President Trump.
Not so much for the troubled Ukraine.
As the escalating Middle Eastern crisis and the US appears to be shaking on the brink of increasing direct involvement, global attention has suddenly diverted from the ongoing war in Ukraine intensifying Russian drone and missile strikes, robbing the devastation in Israel and Iran.
And for at least a while, the focus appears to have shifted firmly to the role of the Kremlin as a potential peace supervision in the Middle East, continuing to move away from that part and approach home in the war.