CNN
–
US President Donald Trump has called the US strike against Iran “an epic military success” by saying that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facility “has been completely wiped out.”
According to Western military sources, CNN is still too early to fully assess the damage caused by more than a dozen bunkerbuster bombs, along with an array of Tomahawk cruise missiles that hit a major nuclear facility in Iran, along with a dozen bunkerbuster bombs.
However, even if Trump’s characteristics prove to be accurate, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities may not mean the end of Iran’s nuclear threat.
And it’s far from there.
For years, the hard-pressed voices within the Islamic Republic have sought nuclear weapons as a deterrent against this kind of overwhelming attack.
Despite Iran continuing to assert that the nuclear program is a strictly peaceful end, those calls will inevitably be strengthened, and nuclear hardliners may ultimately follow their paths.
Ominously, Iranian officials have already publicly suggested that they will step out of a major treaty (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT) designed to monitor and prevent the global proliferation of nuclear weapons.
“The NPT cannot protect us, so why countries like Iran, or countries interested in having peaceful nuclear energy, should rely on the NPT,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragut told a meeting in Istanbul.
Other Iranian lawmakers are likely to interpret it as a virtual confirmation of Iran’s intention to build nuclear weapons, calling for the Islamic Republic to formally withdraw from the treaty.
Of course, the intention is different from capacity.
And nuclear capabilities could become a major issue right after the US strike. As the latest satellite imagery appears to confirm, striking with more than 12 bunkerbuster bombs seriously hinders Iran’s nuclear program, if not destroyed.
However, if there is political will, Iran’s technical know-how can eventually be repaired or rebuilt, despite the targets of multiple Iranian nuclear scientists in Israel.
Meanwhile, officials from the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, say they are uncertain about where nuclear material is already being produced by Iran.
Iran’s state media has raised the possibility that three nuclear sites struck by the US (Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan) have been “evacuated” in advance, with some or all of the material being kept in secret facilities, perhaps unknown to nuclear inspectors.
None of this dangerous nuclear uncertainty is something Trump appears to have negotiated.
“Middle Eastern bully, Iran,” he announced after the US attacked, “We must now create peace.”
But peacemaking seems surprisingly far away as the entire region is supported by more Iranian retaliatory strikes in major maritime vehicles such as Israel, US military bases or Strait of Hormuz.
“Our discussion with Iran was a real window of opportunity,” a European diplomat argued for CNN, referring to a short meeting held between European and Iranian officials in Geneva on Friday.
“But the Americans have now closed that window,” the diplomat added.