CNN
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It is not clear that Iran (its longtime enemy) has the ability to gather the expected ferocious response in the face of Israel’s widespread strike on Friday.
Israel has once again demonstrated that it is the power of military and intelligence intelligence in the Middle East, and is indifferent to the diplomatic impacts of civilian casualties and their actions.
As with the incredible operation to decapitate Hezbollah, an Iranian agent in Lebanon, a northern enemy, the overnight operation features months or years of preparation. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have now faced the challenge of using or losing this ability as diplomacy was launched during the sixth round of nuclear talks scheduled for the weekend between the US and Iran in Oman.
Iran is now counting its extensive wounds. Images from Tehran appear to have been hit in a particular room. Perhaps it suggests personal pinpoint targeting by tracking your phone. Not only did Iran lose the top three active commander in a nuclear talk overnight, but it was lost overnight, but it has become clear that dust may be revealed, and survivors could still be targeted.
This slows down and complicated Iran’s response. Just like the damages that Iranians continue to maintain. The Israeli attack in October took out a massive tranche of Iranian air defense. Israeli forces said Friday that fighter jets had destroyed dozens of radar and surface-to-air missile launchers on strike at an air defense array in western Iran. Iran’s nuclear agency confirmed that Natanz’s nuclear enrichment facility was also damaged, but that is not yet clear.
Over the next few days, Israel’s excellent intelligence agency will continue to attack, searching for targets of opportunity – commanders and equipment changes, or moving materials to facilitate responses.
Such a wide range of attacks were possible last summer, in a ruthless, effective month-long campaign, when Iran’s second strike ability, Hezbollah, was dismantled if a nuclear device was attacked. This is beginning to look like a month-long Israeli plan to remove threats to the region.
The risk remains high. Iran can now try to compete for a nuclear bomb. But the defense of that quietness and clear and humiliating penetration of Israel’s intelligence make it a long shot. Hurrying to build nuclear weapons is not only because there is fire, but your main leadership is at risk of strikes. Netanyahu may have calculated that the risk of Iran’s nuclear breakout would be exhausted and that it would be easier to manage with more military forces.
There is another victim of the one night barrage. The Trump administration has placed itself as a geopolitical force.
There may be suggestions from Trump’s defenders in the previous hours that Israeli attacks are part of a broader masterplan to weaken Iran ahead of more diplomacy. But in reality, a simpler truth is revealed. Israel had no trust in the US to carry out a deal with Iran, which would remove its nuclear ambitions.
Despite US President Donald Trump suing to refrain from doing so, Israel has made its most important attacks on Iran since the war with Iraq in the 1980s. Israel does not care or fear Trump’s response, and apparently appears ready to risk fighting without US support.
That is probably another charge of Iran’s ability to respond now. Israel is not too bothered by how it can be done. Israel’s operation against Hezbollah provides a reason for its confidence (but should stir up anxiety about hub arrogance and excess). It is likely that Israel has already hit most of its major targets to maximize its surprising benefits, and the extent of its losses will take several days to become clear.
How about your current growth? There is much I don’t know about Iran’s nuclear program. Israel may know more. But we are now in a binary moment when a strike at Natantz facility might mark its end or a race to complete it in the form of a nuclear weapon. Iran has always argued that the nuclear program is peaceful, but UN nuclear watchdogs on Thursday declared it in violation of its non-proliferation obligations and urged Tehran to pledge escalation action.
At the moment of greatest weakness, the Islamic Republic struggles to project the sw course of the region that it has maintained for decades. You may feel that you cannot escape diplomacy without appearing even more weak. It appears that Israel cannot be hit proportionally, so if possible it may seem to attack asymmetrically.
In the immediate confusion, one basic fact is clear. Israel is now acting in the Middle East, which is not afraid of wider risks and sometimes cruelly, seeking to change the dynamics of the region over the next decades.