Hong Kong
CNN
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The summit of leaders of the major emerging economy BRICS group will begin on Brazil’s Sunday, but there are no top leaders with the most powerful members.
For the first time in more than a decade of rules, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made BRICS a center of push to rebuild the global balance of power – will not attend an annual leadership gathering.
The absence of Xi’s neighbors from the two-day summit in Rio de Janeiro borrows the acronyms to early members of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and has expanded since 2024 to include Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Iran.
Some members are violating the July 9 deadline to negotiate US tariffs to be imposed by US President Donald Trump, all facing global economic uncertainty brought about by maintaining US trade relations.
XI’s absence means that Chinese leaders are missing out on important opportunities to introduce China as a stable alternative leader for the US. It’s an image that Beijing has long seen to project onto the southern part of the world, and was recently raised by Trump’s shift to a “America First” policy and the US decision last month to shift to a US decision, with Israel bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.
However, the Chinese leader’s decision not to attend — sending his second official Li Qiang instead — does not mean that Beijing has downgraded the importance imposed on the BRICS, and that doesn’t mean that it’s not so important to Beijing’s bid to build a group to offset Western powers.
“We are a great place to go,” said Jung Jang, an associate professor at National University of Singapore.
But that pressure may be Trump in office, Chong added, referring to his relationship with the US president’s key partners, which may not be “his top priority” for XI, as BRICS focuses on piloting China’s domestic economy. Beijing may also have low expectations for a major breakthrough at this year’s summit, he said.
XI is not just the head of state who is expected to be absent from Rio.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin, the closest ally of Chinese leaders in the group, will be present only via video links. For the same reason, he also attended the 2023 BRICS rally in South Africa. Brazil, like South Africa, is a signatory to the International Criminal Court, and is therefore obligated to arrest Putin on court charges claiming war crimes in Ukraine.
Without two global heavy hitters, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in the spotlight. Narendra Modi will visit Brazil for both summits and state visits. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will also be present.
Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto is expected in Rio at Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto after Southeast Asia’s largest economy officially joined BRICS earlier this year, but some new club members have yet to announce plans. BRICS partner countries, including those aiming to join the group, will also send delegations. Uncertainty remains as to whether Saudi Arabia has accepted an invitation to become a full member.
The stab wounds in Xi’s absence for President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, the President of Brazil, could be slowed down by the fact that Chinese leaders visited Brazil in November for a G20 summit and a state visit. The Brazilian leader visited China in May after attending a military parade in Moscow with XI.
That recent diplomacy, low expectations for a major breakthrough at this year’s summit, and a growing focus on domestic issues are likely considered in Xi’s decision to send his trusty assistant commander, Li, the observer says.
China faces sudden economic challenges in the face of trade frictions with the US. Its leaders are busy creating a five-year course ahead of the major political conclaves expected this year.
In Rio, Li is accused of increasing priorities such as strengthening energy ties between Beijing and BRICS’s major oil export members, driving the expansion of China’s offshore and digital currencies for intra-group trade.
“Whether it’s the Shino-Russian partnership or Beijing’s desire to be called leadership in the Global South, there’s a lot to do with BRICS+ that resonates with XI’s foreign policy worldview,” Wong said using the terminology of the Expansion Group.
Started as an economic coalition of Brazil, Russia, India and China before South Africa joined in 2009, BRICS holds roughly the answer to the Global South’s group of seven major developed countries.
It has greater importance as countries are now distributing more “multipolar worlds” and Beijing and Moscow are trying to strengthen international influence as they deepen tensions with the West.
But the composition of BRICS – mixed with large, different political and economic systems and countries with occasional friction between each other, the recent expansion has attracted criticism as ineffective as the group is too cumbersome.
The efforts of different groups to speak with one voice that is different from the Western voice are often plagued by conflicting views. Last month’s statement expressed “significant concerns” over BRICS members’ military strikes over Iran, but stopped specifically naming the two countries that took the strike, the United States or Israel.
Nevertheless, the US sees how the country speaks about one issue that typically combines. It moves trade and finances into the national currency and separates from the dollar. Such deco-oping is particularly attractive to member states such as Russia and Iran, which are highly sanctioned by the US.
Earlier this year, in Brazil’s host semester goals, Lula included “increased payment options” to reduce “vulnerabilities and costs.” When Russia held the club last year, it promoted the development of its own cross-border payment system.
However, the low chance of being on the negotiation table is the lofty goal of the “BRICS currency.” It’s an idea proposed by Lula in 2023 that sparked anger from Trump, even if other BRICS leaders don’t show that it’s a group’s priority.
In January, the US president threatened to place “100% tariffs” on “seemly hostile” BRICS countries if he supported the BRICS currency or to support another currencies to replace the “strong US dollar.”
As the country convenes in Rio, observers track how strict their leaders are on promoting national highway use at a meeting of a group where China is a key member but the US’s global economic influence remains large.