Tel Aviv
CNN
–
Benjamin Netanyahu once again has solid control over Israeli politics.
The country’s longest-serving prime minister pulled himself back from the deep ys in what appears to have been a huge success in a military campaign against Iran.
“Bibi had a Churchill moment,” said an Israeli official from within the coalition, using the prime minister’s nickname.
A day before Israel launched what it called Operation Raisinglion, the Netanyahu government faced a vote of confidence from the opposition.
The two ultra-orthodox parties threatened to vote against the government by putting a lot of pressure on Netanyahu. But he survived the vote – with a considerable margin.
Twenty-four hours later, Israel began attacking Iran. At one moment, Netanyahu’s political issues were wiped out. There are no more ultra-orthodox parties complaining about military drafts or far-right parties screaming about praying with Al-Aqsa compounds.
“The cards are in his hands. If they weren’t a week ago, they’re now,” the official said.
The weekly political protests quickly disappeared for the majority of his current tenure, first over judicial reform and then the war in Gaza, with orders banning large gatherings from Israeli Homefront Command. Netanyahu’s testimony at his trial on corruption charges is pending and out of headlines. The story of hostages still being held in Gaza for more than 600 days of war is no longer a homepage news.
Netanyahu is well aware of the political consequences of the successful military operations like this, according to Israeli sources on the prime minister’s orbit, but the sources claim that for now it is not his focus.
“If we’re doing something good for Israel, that’s good for us,” the source said. “It’s good for you in the election. It’s good for you along with voters… he’ll harvest this in the future.”
Sources also pointed to a complete reversal of political opposition to supporting him from attacking Netanyahu.
“This time, we are united to almost every knesset, except for the Arab Party, and we are united with the people,” the source said.
Iran was at the heart of Netanyahu’s identity due to his almost his political career. His time as Israel’s longest serving leader is filled with warnings about Iran. It was a borderline cartoonish style, like when he held up a picture of a bomb to warn Tehran’s advance nuclear program at the 2012 UN General Assembly. He then returned to the same podium to repeatedly lecture the world on the intentions of Ayatollahs.
Israel’s existential fear was not one of its enemies. They were all combined: overwhelming attacks from Shiite proxies in Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Syria and Iraq. This was the Israeli nightmare scenario where Hamas tried to incite an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
It quickly became clear that each entity had its own benefits.
Hezbollah began launching an attack on Israel on October 8th, but worrying about military leaders was far from a massive barrage. Iran launched two retaliatory attacks against Israel in April and October last year. Houthis began firing drones and ballistic missiles from Yemen in Israel, but not more than one or two at a time.
Over 20 months of the war, Israel was able to deduce its respective enemies. Hamas is the shell of his former self, Hezbollah is crushed, and the Housis does not have weapons that pose a major threat.
“They have broken down the axis into more manageable parts,” a former US ambassador for Israel Dan Shapiro told CNN.
This allowed Israel to focus on Iran without fear of massive retaliation from another side. From Netanyahu’s political perspective, the risk was much lower, especially as Israeli spy agencies have treated Iran as a playground for many years.
“At his age, he has far less political career left to lose,” Shapiro said. “So it’s easier to give him some wind-restrained attention in the past, especially to reach a career-defining goal.”
But whether the military campaign against Netanyahu’s longtime vote count is a natural conclusion, according to President Johanan Presner of the Israeli Institute of Democracy.
Photo: Escalating conflict between Israel and Iran
The votes over the past few months have repeatedly shown Netanyahu, who is far behind political rival Naphtari Bennett. What’s important is that he is far from building a coalition with his current political partners and pushing him out of leadership.
Iran’s operations may ultimately not provide the political salvation Netanyahu desires, Presner said, as it is a matter of widespread agreement from the left and right.
“It’s a huge consensus on the need for Israel to make every effort to prevent Iran from becoming a core,” Presner told CNN. “It doesn’t matter that there was an ideological debate.”
Israel is also plagued by the ongoing war in Gaza, with no clear exits and no comprehensive day plans. The Second War presents Netanyahu with another risk if it has a much more tangible result but is dragged over.
“The ability of the government to translate military success into favorable diplomatic outcomes has not yet been determined,” Pressner said.