Hong Kong
CNN
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China is hosting Iranian and Russian diplomats for talks on Tehran’s nuclear program on Friday.
China’s deputy minister Ma Chaoks said: “The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced earlier this week that it will chair a meeting with Iran’s counterparts in China’s capital on Iran’s nuclear issue.
The meeting, which will be attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lyabakh and Iran’s Deputy Minister Kazem Galibabadi, will be putting pressure on the country to find a diplomatic solution or trigger a return to sanctions, as a key deadline from Iran’s nuclear trade loom in 2015.
While European powers have held multiple talks with Tehran over the issue in recent months, European powers are seeking new contracts, while President Donald Trump is also hoping for new contracts.
Finding a diplomatic pathway to limit Iran’s nuclear program is increasing amidst conflict in the Middle East. The UN nuclear watchdog has warned that Iran has rapidly expanded its stock of what is considered uranium near the bomb. Iran has denied its desire for a nuclear bomb and claims its nuclear energy program is “completely peaceful.”
At this stage, China is stepping in with its own diplomatic push, and observers say it fits Beijing’s purpose in establishing itself as an alternative global leader for the United States.
“The Carnegie Fund is a great opportunity to help people understand the importance of the world,” said Tong Zao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Fund, Washington’s international peace think tank.
By placing both Russia and Iran in the room, China may “suppose to highlight the importance of a non-Western approach to solving global challenges,” he added.
China has long been a champion of the 2015 nuclear deal, or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The agreement, originally negotiated with the UN Security Council and all five permanent members of Tehran, limits Iran’s nuclear program.
Beijing criticized its withdrawal from the US agreement, opposed to US sanctions on Iran. Tehran has stepped away from nuclear-related commitments after the US withdrawal.
Under the 2015 deal, the country must cause the so-called “snapback” of international sanctions over Iran, which were lifted under the JCPOA until October.
“We hope that we can seize limited hours before the end date this October, so that we can maintain the JCPOA,” China’s UN ambassador FU Kong told reporters before the special UN Security Council meeting on Iran’s nuclear program on Wednesday.
“Putting maximum pressure on a particular country will not achieve our goal,” he said in a reference to Trump’s approach to isolating Iran economically and diplomatically to stop Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Trump told Fox News last week that he wrote to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying, “There are two ways we can handle Iran: military, or you do business. I prefer to do business because I’m not trying to hurt Iran.”
However, Iran has recently shown that he has no interest in talking to Trump, and Khamenei has criticized efforts to negotiate from the “bullying nation.”
It is unclear what form a potential new contract will take, or how it will be mediated. But failing to reach the deal could lead to an escalation of ongoing conflict in the Middle East where Israel and Iran can trade strikes directly or see Tehran change its position into nuclear weapons, observers say.
Sanamvakir, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programmes, London-based Chatham House think tank, said: “In a setting of several parallel efforts, this was an opportunity for Russia and China to work together to propose a version of what the deal would look like.”
Both Beijing and Moscow have united in saying “Iran doesn’t want to weaponize its nuclear program and seek a diplomatic solution,” while Europe and the US want a broader agreement, but may want a narrow deal focused on Tehran’s nuclear program.
Iran also views China and Russia as potential ally in such debates. Tehran and Moscow have been strengthening their cooperation in recent years to help Iranian drones help Russia’s wage war in Ukraine.
China remains an important economic and diplomatic supporter for Iran, but it also considers balancing its relationship with Tehran and partners like Saudi Arabia. Last week, Russia, China and Iran held that since 2019, China’s state media said it was the fifth joint naval training.
“For Iran, (conferences in China) is a symbolic opportunity. We can continue to show our integrity between Russia and China… (and) it continues to have a message that we are seeking involvement,” Vakil said.
In an era where the Trump administration overturns close ties between Beijing and Moscow and opposes what it considers as a new “axis” between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, the trio’s integrity show may benefit Beijing too.
Russia has also offered to take part in nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran as Moscow Washington is warmly tied under Trump, a Kremlin spokesperson said.
“The future policy direction of Russia and Iran will have a major impact on China’s strategic options in the Middle East and beyond,” said Zhao of Carnegie Endownsment, pointing out this as one reason for Beijing to strengthen communications between Moscow and Tehran on the issue.
“This kind of adjustment demonstrates solidarity with the potential US efforts to sow division among them,” he added.
Beijing is in danger in many times in the Middle East.
China relies on the region for energy and has worked to deepen strategic ties, including wealthy Gulf countries and traditional US allies. Beijing expressed its ambition to become the region’s power player in 2023 when it served as a mediating settlement between longtime rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.
China is also carefully removing the possibility that its business commercial ties with Iran are entangled and intertwined with Trump’s pressure tactics in Iran, observers say.
However, the Beijing meeting “does not indicate that China is interested in Russia and Iran to ride here freely, or allowing them to continue to overturn the norms of proliferation,” says Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Bourse and Bazaar Foundation think tank.
“What this reflects is serious concern from China that this crisis could accelerate in the Middle East if Iran’s nuclear program is not addressed through negotiations,” he said.
Still, even if it appears to amplify this issue, there are limitations to the ability to become a broker in Beijing. This is a relatively inexperienced player in an area where the US has long been a dominant force, and despite its economic ties with Tehran, observers say it will almost shake up the country’s policies.
“The Russians and Iranians understand that this is a relatively new role China takes as a mediator of these large international conflicts. There is a lot of realism about the extent to which China can actually become an architect of these negotiations,” Batman Gerridge said.
But they both “are very pleased to participate in the Chinese sights emerging as this new player,” he said.