After a five-year lull, terrorist violence has reignited in Syria, with a series of attacks starting Wednesday. As soon as a ceasefire took effect between Lebanon’s Hezbollah resistance movement and Israel, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allied terrorist forces based in Idlib and the outskirts of Latakia launched attacks on the northwestern administration of Aleppo. started. According to reports, the terrorists have so far captured about 40% of Aleppo, and the Syrian army appears to have been caught off guard by the surprise attack, which was not supposed to occur under the Astana peace process.
Many experts are concerned about the current situation in northern and northwestern Syria, where bitter memories of the civil war are revived and the already destroyed infrastructure of Arab countries falls victim to blind Salafi-Takfir terrorism. I’m concerned that this will happen. Mehr News Agency (MNA) English Desk contacted West Asia Analyst Ehsan Kiani, who warned of the risk of terrorist intensification in Syria as a threat to the entire region, and who urged peace-seeking countries to take note of the situation in Syria. He emphasized the need to participate. To counter the resurgence of terrorists. Below are questions and answers from a Tehran-based analyst and university professor.
Given the current situation, how should Iran, the Syrian army, and Russia respond to the recent terrorist attacks in Syria?
The need for foresight regarding the characteristics of the occupied territory is very important. First, you should consider the following questions:
– What is the social basis of the opposition?
– How much logistics support do you have?
– Is there any basis for them to be recognized internationally?
– Is the purpose of occupying Aleppo and other areas to divide Syria or to gain influence to change the policies of the Syrian government?
Unless these questions are answered, no serious action can be taken to take back the occupied territories. However, it is essential to halt this advance in the areas of Hama and Homs.
Were the Zionist regime’s continued air strikes on Syria aimed at strengthening terrorist groups and attacking Syrian government positions?
These airstrikes benefited the terrorist groups, as they diverted the spirits and energies of resistance groups to the southern regions and the Golan Heights, eliminating the possibility of quickly focusing on the northern and northwestern regions of Syria.
Has regional support for the Syrian turmoil helped strengthen these terrorist groups?
Turkey’s financial and military support to these terrorist groups has been very effective in strengthening their positions. It would be more effective if Gulf Arab states also provided political support.
Even more important than political support is media support, which provides an opportunity for organizations such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to strengthen their social base by rebranding them.
The shift in the image of these groups from Takfir fundamentalist groups to modern, semi-secular groups that are tolerant of other sects and religions increases the likelihood that the occupation will continue.
What impact will the strengthening of terrorist forces and the weakening of the Syrian central government have on regional peace and stability?
If the occupation of the occupied territories continues, it will pave the way for Syria to be divided into three regions: Alawite, Sunni, and Kurdish. If such a scenario were to occur, even though it is unofficial and regardless of the nature of the Syrian constitution, it is still possible that such an atmosphere would prevail in Iraq in the long term, and could lead to dissatisfaction on the part of Iraqis. Sunni elites also had such a desire.
In the short term, core Takfir groups such as ISIS could also become active in Iraq, putting the country’s stability at risk.
Furthermore, if support for Hezbollah in Lebanon weakens, Israel could break the ceasefire and retarget southern Lebanon with air and ground attacks.
Wouldn’t the weakening of the Syrian central government increase the presence of extra-regional forces and increase instability in the region?
Given Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, it is unlikely that the US will seek to expand its military presence in Syria. However, increased drone operations and US and Israeli airstrikes in Syria could increase instability in the region.
MNA