TEHRAN – After a brutal two-year conflict that devastated Gaza and shook the Middle East, a tentative ceasefire has been announced, outlining a phased military withdrawal from the coastal enclave and promising the release of prisoners of war and Palestinian captives.
The ceasefire, popularized and brokered by US President Donald Trump’s controversial 20-point peace plan, is an extraordinary diplomatic achievement, but it comes with deep skepticism about Israel’s commitment to lasting peace and the possibility of new wars.
Truce under siege
On October 9, the Israeli regime formally approved the first phase of the ceasefire through indirect talks in Sharm el-Sheikh mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. The agreement calls for Israeli forces to immediately withdraw to the agreed boundaries in the Gaza Strip and relinquish control of about 47% of the territory to the Palestinian Authority.
Meanwhile, Hamas promises to release the remaining Israeli hostages (approximately 20 believed to be alive) within 72 hours of the redeployment of troops. In parallel, Israel agreed to release around 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences and 1,700 detainees arrested during the recent escalation of the conflict.
The humanitarian corridor was quickly opened, allowing hundreds of trucks loaded with food, medicine, and other essentials to enter Gaza each day to address the dire humanitarian plight. To ensure compliance, approximately 200 multinational troops from the United States, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will monitor compliance with the ceasefire, but there will be no specific deployment of U.S. forces within the Gaza Strip.
President Trump’s 20-point plan faces harsh reality with Gaza ceasefire
At the heart of the agreement is President Trump’s comprehensive 20-point so-called peace plan, which envisions the dismantling of Hamas’s military wing, the establishment of an internationally monitored transitional technocratic government chaired by Trump and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, and the resumption of Palestinian rule and the eventual neutralization of Gaza as a prelude to statehood negotiations. Despite international support, the plan faces difficult hurdles.
Gaza benefits from vulnerability
Although partial and unstable, the ceasefire brought some important benefits to Gaza.
• Suspension of large-scale Israeli military operations and initiation of troop withdrawal in key sectors.
• Significant easing of the blockade, evidenced by formal agreements opening humanitarian aid routes.
• The release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners of war represents a boost to morale across Gaza and the wider Palestinian population.
• Opportunities for international oversight and potential pathways for governance innovation.
A series of murders casts a shadow on peace.
However, despite the ceasefire being declared, harsh realities on the ground cast doubt on its sustainability. Reports from humanitarian observers and hospitals confirm that Israeli airstrikes and shelling continued even after the formal ceasefire agreement began. Notably, seven bodies were recovered from a helicopter attack near Gaza’s Al-Ahly Hospital on October 9, a stark reminder of the ongoing violence.
According to official statistics from the Gaza Health Ministry, the death toll of Palestinians since the start of the ceasefire has reached dozens, including women and children. These casualties highlight a cruel truth. Despite the diplomatic agreement, Israel’s aggressive military stance continues, raising alarm over its sincerity in pursuing peace.
Israeli passivity and the imminent threat of a new war
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hailed the deal as a tactical success, but hawkish elements of his government remain strongly opposed to the concessions. Many in Israel see the release of prisoners and the withdrawal of troops as a temporary setback rather than a permanent change.
Reports that limited Israeli airstrikes continued even after the ceasefire was ratified, further fueling questions about Israel’s true efforts to end hostilities. The apparent absence of US troops from the Multinational Monitoring Force reflects Israel’s distrust of international presence and signals its desire to maintain control over Gaza’s destiny.
Regional and international stakeholder reactions
The ceasefire received cautious praise from the United Nations, European Union and Arab states, who called for a sustainable political solution and urgent reconstruction efforts. Egyptian mediation remains central under intense regional pressure, and neighboring countries are closely monitoring developments in instability.
Hope in fragile calm and lingering violence
The Gaza ceasefire is the most promising diplomatic development since brutal hostilities erupted in October 2023. This represents a tentative path to potential relief and normalization of conditions of existence for the war-torn population of Gaza.
However, the continued killing of Palestinians even after the ceasefire clearly reveals Israel’s deep militancy and the fragile nature of the ceasefire.
Without concrete moves to address the root causes of the conflict – occupation, blockade and political disenfranchisement – as aid trucks flood into enclaves and displaced families return to carefully destroyed homes, the coming weeks will test the strength of this ceasefire and the region’s readiness to choose peace over enduring war.