CNN
–
US President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities puts the Middle East in a volatile position and now looks at Tehran’s next move.
Speaking in Istanbul, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragut said on Sunday that his country has “various options” when deciding how to respond to the US attacks.
From hitting US bases in the region to closing a critical waterway to the world’s shipping, Iran may be pondering its next move. Everything poses risks inherent in the Islamic Republic, Israel and the United States.
What should you know about this:
Instructing US involvement in the conflict could activate the rest of the Iraqi, Yemen and Syrian proxies that previously launched attacks on American assets in the region.
Iran’s strongest ally in the region was once Lebanon’s Hezbollah, but the group has been significantly weakened by Israeli attacks.
The Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) says the US has a presence on a total of 19 sites across the region, eight of which believe analysts have a permanent presence in the US. As of June 13th, the CFR estimated that around 40,000 US troops were in the Middle East.
In Iraq, for example, there were 2,500 US troops in the second half of last year. Iran’s attacks on these forces are not conceivable. In 2020, Iran’s missile attacks on US garrisons left over more than 100 soldiers with traumatic brain damage.
Iranians have said “once the United States enters this war and attacks nuclear facilities, they will oppose the US troops in the region and retaliate against the interests of the US.”
The revival of attacks on US assets from Yemen is already on the table. The Iran-backed by Yemeni Iran, the Hooti rebels had previously vowed to attack American ships in the Red Sea if the US joined the conflict with Iran. A well-known Houthi official said in a social media post early Sunday that he “must endure the consequences” of the US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
It is unclear whether this marks the end of the US ceasefire that hit in May, and Washington said the group would halt its military campaign against the Hoosis in exchange for stopping attacks on US interests in the region.
Knowing that they cannot fully win the conflict between Israel and the United States, experts say Tehran can try to engage in a war of attrition.
Iran also has the power to influence “the entire Gulf commercial transport,” Ravid said.
So far, there has been no material disruption to the global oil flow. However, if oil exports are destroyed, or if Iran tries to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market could face an existential crisis.
The Straits link the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and are an important channel for the export of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Middle East to the global market. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, approximately 20 million barrels of oil flows through the straits every day.
Prominent advisors to Iran’s top leader have already called for missile strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“After the attack on the nuclear equipment of America’s Fordow, it’s our turn,” warned Hossain Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of the Hardline Kayhan newspaper, a well-known conservative voice who previously identified himself as the “representative” of Khamenei.
Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaji News Outlet, told CNN that geographic leverage over global transportation will give Iran “stimulate the oil market, giving him the ability to raise oil prices, collapse Trump’s economic agenda, collapse Trump’s economic agenda, collapse and collapse.”
Some experts say Iran is very likely to compete for a nuclear bomb now, even if the current regime collapses and new leaders are introduced.
“Trump has just ensured that Iran will become a nuclear-weapon state in the next five to ten years,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, “especially if the administration changes.”
Parsi said that even if the regime collapses and new military elements assume power, they are far more hawkish than the current regime, and are likely to head towards nuclear weapons as their sole deterrent.
Experts have previously said it is likely that Iran moved stocks of enriched uranium from major nuclear facilities amid the Israeli attack. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity for private purposes use uranium that is enriched from 3.5% to 5%. Enriched to a higher level, it can use uranium to create bomb Israel, and the US accuses Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons. Tehran claims that the programme is peace.
Iran is also likely to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or the NPT, pledging to launch bombs under it.
“Iran’s response is likely not just to military retaliation. The NPT’s withdrawal is highly likely,” Ali Vez, director of the Iran project for the International Crisis Group, said in X.
Iran’s first response to a US attack on US nuclear land was to attack Israel, not US bases.
According to Israel’s Ministry of Health, the Iranian missile was attacked by a group of Tel Aviv buildings, and 86 people were hospitalized with injuries overnight and Sunday morning.
Knowing that it may not be able to sustain a complete conflict with the US, Iran may simply ask to perpetuate the status quo and fight Israel alone, hoping that Trump will reduce his involvement after Sunday’s strike.
Trump may follow the same playbook as the 2020 attack that killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, Shabani told CNN’s Becky Anderson.
At the time, Trump “want to send a big message, get the headlines, show us our resolve, and then avoid a wider war,” Shabani said.
Iran may feel they have to retaliate to save their faces, but like what happened in 2020, it could be a bloodless response, just like when it launched a barrage of missiles at a US base in Iraq.
Two military analysts said Iran could resort to “asymmetric” measures (such as terrorism and cyberattacks) as Israeli attacks reduced Iran’s military capabilities.
“I think the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) is probably trying to figure out what capabilities it has left as missile stockpiles are declining,” said CNN national security analyst David Sanger.
“I think (the IRGC) will be a little cautious. I think it will take us all to all the asymmetrical things of cyber, terrorism. I think they are probably looking for something the US can’t put into traditional defenses,” he added.
Similarly, Major General James “Spider” Marks, head of geopolitical strategies for investment bank Academy Securities, told CNN that Israel “has done a pretty good job of undermining Iran’s ability to launch a rather robust missile inventory.”
But despite being “injured,” the IRGC still has “a tremendous ability,” he said. “It already has the capacity to be within the region and then outside the region. We are vulnerable all over the world, where IRGC can make an impact and make things happen asymmetrically.”
Iran refused to return to the negotiation table during the Israeli attack.
On Sunday, Aragut said he didn’t know there was “a space for diplomacy” after the US forces attacked at Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“They crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities. …We must respond based on our legitimate rights to self-defense,” Araguchi said.
By doing so, Parsi said, “The Iranians cornered themselves.”
“Their aim is to force Trump to stop Netanyahu’s war, thereby demonstrating his ability and willingness to use American leverage over Netanyahu,” writes Parsi. “But the flip side is that Tehran gave Israel a veto on diplomacy from the US. Simply continuing the war, Israel can block talks between the US and Iran.”
Iranian and European officials met in Geneva on Friday.
Speaking on Sunday, Araguchi said the US has decided to “bloat” diplomacy.
“Last week, when Israel decided to blow up its diplomacy, we were in negotiations with the US. This week, when the US decided to blow up its diplomacy, we had discussions with the E3 (a group of European ministers)/EU,” Araghchi said in X.
“Iranians are reluctant to negotiate with guns in their heads, and the guns have already been triggered,” Vaez, of the international crisis group, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.
“A more likely situation is that the discussion has now ended.”