Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will land in China this weekend for his first visit in seven years. He meets Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, just as Washington’s relations with India are sour.
Modi’s visit to Tianjin for the regional security summit comes just days after the US doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%.
The column is based on a shared resolve to deepen years of cooperation between India and the US and counter technology and Beijing’s global ambitions. India was also forced to look elsewhere and diversify its trade.
“India’s trust in the US is shattered,” South Asian analyst Michael Kugelman told the Guardian. “I don’t know if US officials are completely aware of how much trust has been wasted in such a short time.”
For China, the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Group Summit, which begins on Sunday, failed to improve the timing. “Modi is in China the moment India-China relations stabilized and India-US relations move south. It’s a powerful optics,” Kugelman said.
Putin “want to take advantage of the moment by reaffirming Russia’s close ties with India,” Kugelman added, “It’s a great moment for everyone to stick their tongues out in Washington.”
Washington claims that Delhi is funding Moscow’s war with Ukraine, pointing to India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil and defense hardware as the reason for the rise in tariffs.
As Modi began his trip, Donald Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro intensified the attack on India, claiming in X that X became an “oil laundromat for the Kremlin.”
India has consistently defended the purchase of Russian oil, saying it is essential to stabilizing energy costs, supporting stable global prices and complying with international law in a vast, developing economy. Modi tried to balance the Ukrainian war and refused to directly criticize Moscow while urging peace.
The economic blow of tariffs is immeasurable. The US is India’s largest export market with $86.5 billion a year, with roughly two-thirds of which (around $6.02 billion in goods) being subject to new missions, striking the labor-intensive sector, from textiles to jewelry.
Even before tariffs, India was cautiously warming towards China, hoping to boost investment and technology and trade.
Relations froze after a fatal clash along the contested Himalayan border in 2020, but began to thaw when Modi and Xi Jin met in person for the first time in four years at the BRICS summit in Russia in October. Now, “The US and India crisis has given Modi a great reason to accelerate efforts to alleviate tensions,” Kugelman said.
Modi is expected to meet XI on the sidelines of the regional summit, with trade and investment going high on the agenda.
“Efforts are underway to see if India and China can reach any new equilibrium,” Kewalramani said. “Both recognize that the world order is fluid. Both are unlikely to decisively manage all friction, but there is a process that at least attempts to grow the relationship.”