TEHRAN – Two different blocs appeared within the UN Security Council as the state manipulates the state for votes ahead of Russia’s proposal.
This potential expansion will suspend a re-challenge of UN sanctions on Iran. This is the sanctions that sparked the process of reviving E3 countries (Germany, UK, France) in August. The process known as the “snapback mechanism” is part of the Co-Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This allows signers of contracts to revive the UN sanctions that were in effect before the JCPOA terminated them in 2015 if the JCPOA does not breach the contract.
The US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed severe economic sanctions on Iran. Signatories in Europe, Germany, France and the UK, did not officially leave the agreement, but they stopped fulfilling their commitment to protecting Iran from the effects of these sanctions. As a result, in 2020, Iran began rolling back some of its own JCPOA commitments.
Two other signatories of the JCPOA, China and Russia, have consistently criticised Western actions, claiming that they effectively nullified the agreement. At a bystander meeting at the SCO summit held in Tianjin this week, foreign ministers of Iran, China and Russia signed a letter written by Iranian Abbas Aragut. They also argued that E3 lacked legal and moral justification for their use of snapbacks, as they were unable to exhaust the JCPOA’s Dispute Resolution Mechanism (DRM) and did not support their own commitment.
Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear facilities, an issue designed to address by the JCPOA, were bombed multiple times by Israel and the United States in June. European countries did not condemn these attacks and instead took responsibility for Iran.
Europeans say that if Iran returns to negotiations with the US (which derailed Washington by bombing Iran), it will temporarily extend Resolution 2231 if it returns to the country with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. Iran has suspended cooperation with the United Nations Nuclear Watch after recycled its IAEA report – old and rebuttal claims about Iran’s nuclear activity and providing an excuse for military action by Israel and the United States.
Iran needs nine votes at UNSC
UNSC consists of five permanent members (US, UK, France, Russia and China) and 10 non-permanent members elected at the General Assembly for a two-year term. Currently, non-permanent members are Algeria, Denmark, Greece, Guyana, Pakistan, Panama, Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Somalia.
Araguchi had a telephone conversation with foreign ministers of Greece, Sierra Leone and Slovenia on Friday.
Among the non-permanent members, South Korea and Denmark are most likely to line up with the West when Russia presents its expansion proposal. Guyana also maintains close ties with the United States and is in a different opinion with Venezuela, a key ally of Iran in Latin America.
It is said that Iran’s relationship with Greece, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Panama are neither hostile nor particularly friendly. This neutrality may explain why Iranian foreign ministers chose to initially engage with representatives of these countries.
Russia, China, Algeria and Pakistan are expected to vote in favor of the resolution. To pass, Iran must ensure support from five additional members. If the resolution fails to achieve nine positive votes, if there is abstain, it will not be adopted.
Once a resolution is voted on the Security Council, the permanent retains the authority to reject it. The US, France or the UK are likely to choose to reject the bill, but they hope that it doesn’t have to be done as all three come with political complications.
The revitalization of snapbacks has had a negative impact on Iran’s economy recently, further reducing the Iranian rial. Therefore, some within Iran are opposed to extending resolution 2231. They argue that the return of UN sanctions is not practical and has a largely psychological consequence, and that if this situation is repeated in six months, the Iranian market will suffer again.
According to statements from the Western Mission, Russia has already distributed the resolution. Iranians say they will seriously consider leaving the NPT (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) if pre-JCPO sanctions are ultimately rediscovered.