TEHRAN – As a leader who frequently spoke about how “concerns” he has been about Iran’s abused nuclear program in recent weeks, France’s Emmanuel Macron prevented tensions from shooting when he sat down with a Zionist journalist on Thursday, undoubtedly slowing efforts to announce that Europe would recur, regardless of what Europe was doing to Iran.
When asked by Israeli Channel 12 if the so-called snapback was a completed transaction, Macron said: “Yes. I think so.”
The French president said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragut has come up with a “rational” plan to stop the UN sanctions re-issues, but has rejected the offer as E3 (France, Germany and the UK) is not supported by “other members of (Iran’s political) structure.”
Macron did not make the same claim when Araguchi traveled to Cairo earlier this month to sign a contract with the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on behalf of his country. By signing the contract, Iran has pledged to look for ways to allow IAEA inspectors to return after the Iranian parliament suspends cooperation with the agency following the US-Israel attack on three nuclear sites, Natanz, Esfahan and Fordaw.
What is “snapback”?
The “snapback mechanism” is a provision for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This will unilaterally reimpose all JCPOA UN sanctions on Iran if the deal believes it is not complying with the agreement. Under the JCPOA, Iran has agreed to limit nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
However, the JCPOA has been largely obsolete for most of the past decade. The US left the agreement in 2018, reimposed a strict embargo against Iran, sending its economy into Tailspin. With Washington’s withdrawal, European signatories began to go against their own commitments despite publicly clinging to the deal. About 18 months after this group of cold shoulders west, Iran began rolling some of its own promises.
Two other JCPOA participants, China and Russia, consider the West to be the crippling states of the 2015 contract, calling for Europe and Washington to return to diplomacy.
Another major blow to the JCPOA came in June when the 2015 deal targeted a facility aimed at protecting it. President Donald Trump has made several claims since the attacks that “decapitate” Iran’s nuclear sites.
The looming re-issue of UN sanctions on Tehran is widely seen as a knockout blow. E3 sparked a snapback mechanism in late August. The day after Macron made his remarks, the UNSC rejected a resolution brought by South Korea, the current president of the 15-member council, to unravel the penetration of anti-Iran’s UN sanctions. A full re-scheduling could take effect on September 27th, as an extension of sanctions relief is not visible.
The specific economic impact of these revert sanctions is expected to be limited, but given the already imaginable restrictions have been imposed by Washington after the JCPOA withdrawal, they could still spur the surge in Iran’s currency exchange rates.
Embargoes include the ban on traditional weapons, restrictions on ballistic missile programs and freezing Iranian assets. However, the practical implications of these measures are also controversial. Iran’s military programmes are largely self-sufficient, and Tehran has repeatedly stated that ballistic missile programs are unnegotiable and many Iranian assets have already been frozen. Furthermore, Russia and China, the major Iranian allies within the UN Security Council, said in a statement released Friday that they were not complying with the snapback, calling it “illegal” and “invalid.”
Lost connections in Europe
Iran’s foreign minister holds a seat on the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), an organisation made up of representatives of the country’s leading political, judicial and military leaders, as well as leaders of the Islamic Revolution. The SNSC is responsible for making decisions on Iran’s most important foreign policy and national security issues. While Araguchi has participated in these important deliberations as a member of the Council as Foreign Minister, his main role is to implement the policies and decisions determined by its establishment.
Therefore, the plan that Aragut presented to the Europeans was not his own initiative. It represents a consensus agreed by the president, attorney general, military officials, the Speaker of the Congress and leaders of the Islamic Revolution.
In a post on X, Araghchi responded to Macron’s remarks, reminding him that he is acting on behalf of the nation. “I am pleased that President Macron recognizes the rationality of my proposal, but it should be noted that he and the international community have full support from all institutions within the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the best national security council,” he wrote.
Esmail Bagheei, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, appears to be returning the charges, questioning Macron’s motivation to reassure Israelis that the snapback was a “trade taken.” Israel has hated the JCPOA since its signature.
“Why is President Macron dismissing what he admits is a reasonable proposal from Iran and instead “hurried” to select Israeli television channels to reassure his “selected” audience that the snapback is a “complete transaction”? ” Baghaei posted on X.
Iranians have long criticised Europeans for abandoning their connection to institutions and international affairs, often characterising them as US proxies. Similar claims are frequently made by analysts on other European-related issues, such as the war in Ukraine. European leaders have been excluded from peace negotiations between the US and Russia, and the Trump administration is often said to have rejected European perspectives on how wars in Ukraine should end.
After Friday’s vote, Iran’s UN mission said in a statement that Europe ignored Tehran’s offers based on “political greed” and “unfounded claims.”
What will happen next
Within Iran, there are few calls for the government to actively prevent a re-challenge of UN sanctions. After the dismantling of the JCPOA, years of debilitating embargo and full-scale war against Iran, few within the country’s political and analytical circles believe Tehran should make concessions to prevent the “snapback” of sanctions. This is why the Cairo Accord received backlash within Iran, with observers accusing the government of defeating a dead horse.
Nevertheless, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has previously announced that the Cairo Agreement will not be implemented if pre-JCPOA sanctions are revived. Lawmakers and several diplomats say Iran will consider withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) shortly after sanctions are restored.