TEHRAN – Due to increased life expectancy and low birth rates, government officials warn that Iran’s elderly population over the age of 60 will make up a third of its population by 2050. There are currently 7.5 million people, with the elderly accounting for less than 10% of the population.
Medhi Marmir, deputy director of Iran’s National Population Headquarters, predicted that the country will enter the population phase between 2041-46. Marmir cited from PressTV that about 62% of female seniors and about 39% of male Iranians live under the poverty line.
According to the IRNA, the National Population Institute has discovered that the country’s powerful population of 86 million is aging five times faster than it is growing.
Before the revolution
Before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Tehran had many foreign workers. The large number of foreign diasporas was largely due to the lack of skilled labor with domestic education. However, the post-revolutionary era witnessed an increase in many universities and universities.
Another trend after the revolution was for women to participate in the workforce. According to 2020 statistics, the overall literacy rates for women in Iran surpass the literacy rates of men standing at 85% and 80% respectively. As of 2005, 65% of Iranian university students were women.
Today, Iran is not only self-sufficient with skilled personnel, but also has become an exporter of the skilled labor force around the world. Despite the increase in literacy rates, how will the Islamic Republic compensate for the shortage of young, skilled populations if more than 30% of its population is made up of older people by 2050?
In 2023, approximately 70% of the population was 15-64 years old, representing the working-age population. Approximately 23% of the population consists of children and adolescents under the age of 15.
In Iran, the minimum working age is 15, according to labor law. Elderly people make up only 8% of the population.
Today, even with a large number of lively young people in Iran, there is a shortage of labor, especially in the construction industry. In many cases, this shortage is compensated by millions of Afghans living in the country.
This brings another important factor that contributes to lower birth rates, or cost of living. In fact, many families have chosen to have a smaller family size due to high inflation and the expensive real estate sector. The current trend of only children is common, with many young Iranian families, many of whom must support older parents.
In 2013, Ayatollah, the leader of the Islamic Revolution, sailed Ali Khamenei and announced his disagreement over a decline in population. The leader pointed out that economic growth is a prerequisite for population growth and called on the government to encourage people to have more children.
Many incentives have been introduced to encourage childbirth by Iranian welfare organizations and the Ministry of Health.
First, the medical and medical benefits provided to mothers who are giving birth include:
– Free or subsidized prenatal care. The public health center offers free or low-cost testing, lab testing, ultrasound, and supplements (such as folic acid and iron).
– Insurance coverage: Most health insurance plans cover the majority of pregnancy-related costs, including delivery (normal and caesarean section). and
– Inter-South Health Program: Government health centres provide training and support for mothers (breastfeeding, infant care, etc.).
Second, maternity leave and workplace rights:
– Interpersonal leave: Women are entitled to 9 months (270 days) paid maternity leave, fully covered by Social Security.
– Employment Security: Iran’s labor laws guarantee women’s right to return to work after maternity leave;
– Reduced working hours: In some sectors, pregnant women may receive reduced working hours or lighter duties.
Marriage delay
Due to financial constraints, marriage delays are another new trend. There is another factor, along with delays in marriage and the extended interval between births.
There have been major advances in infertility treatment. Today, 100% of fertility treatment costs are covered by health insurance, and Iran has emerged as a community leader in this sector. A monthly allowance is provided to certain programs, particularly for low-income families.
The increase in the elderly population and the decline in fertility rates are often seen as a problem of developed countries that compensate for labor shortages, primarily due to the increased number of migrants arriving from third-world countries. However, Iran is a third world country facing similar scenarios of an ageing population.
Population of Afghanistan
Afghan migrant workers, pilgrims and merchants who had settled in Iran for many years remained until the early 20th century. However, after the start of the Soviet-Afghan war in 1979, the first major wave of Afghan citizens came as refugees or asylum seekers.
According to UNHCR, around 4 million Afghans live in Iran. The numbers cited by Iranian officials are much higher, with some estimates reaching 8 million. Tehran has launched an undocumented deportation procedure for Afghan workers. Over the past two years, Tehran has deported 2 million mostly undocumented Afghans. Such a campaign of expulsion, primarily of Afghan nationals, should not threaten documented Afghan workers.
The IRNA said, citing Nader Yar-Ahmadi, head of the National Immigration Agency, “students without legal permission to reside in their parents, heads of vulnerable women, children with Iranian parents, and those with employment codes are permitted to live in the country.” However, students whose parents do not have legal permission to reside in the state must return to Afghanistan by July 6th.
Finally, there should be a special provision of birthright for Afghans born in Iran and don’t know anything about their homeland. According to Iranian law, even if you are born in Iran, you will not be granted Iranian citizenship. In terms of identity, these children are more Iranian than Afghanistan. Such birthrights are common in many parts of the world, including most Western countries such as Canada and Sweden.
To help lower birth rates, the government has set up a policy to absorb some of the more than 1 million new Afghans who entered Iran following the Taliban acquisition in 2021. It is estimated that around 26-3 million documented Afghans reside in Iran.
Afghan workers are the source of hardworking young workers ready to work on conditions where Iranian workers do not. In fact, without contributions in the construction industry, real estate prices will be higher than the already exorbitant rates today.
The government should promote documented stays for Afghan migrant workers and their families to address an aging population, and society should be encouraged to welcome contributions to the country’s economy and assimilation into society. For that to happen, Afghan workers deserve fair wages, dignity, safety and employment security.
The complete absorption of documented, skilled Afghan workers in society will inevitably help population growth in the short term and aging population in the long term.
Photo: The young Afghan diaspora can also address the aging demographics of Iran.