TEHRAN – With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, concerns are growing about a possible resurgence of ISIS. Some experts believe that the organizational structure of ISIS has completely collapsed and it is impossible to revive it, while others believe that the current situation is ripe for an ISIS revival. There are some too.
Various aspects of the possible resurgence of ISIS are being considered.
1- Factors influencing the re-emergence of ISIS:
1-1- Power vacuum: The power vacuum created by the lack of a strong central government is considered to be the most important opportunity for the emergence of extremism and the creation of insecurity and chaos.
1-2- Weak State Institutions: Due to the unique political and security situation in post-Assad Syria, the country’s administrative institutions are weak and ISIS and other extremist groups may gain control of the situation.
region.
1-3- Regional instability: Neighboring countries such as Iraq, which are currently battling ISIS remnants, could see an increase in terrorism and cross-border insurgencies.
1-4- Disillusioned communities: If Syria’s domestic communities are ignored within the country’s power structure after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, they will become vulnerable to ISIS.
1-5- Competition among extremist groups for power: The chaos following the fall of the Assad regime may lead to competition among extremist groups, and it is possible that ISIS will re-emerge from this competition.
2- Obstacles to ISIS resurgence:
2-1- Global counterterrorism efforts: The United Nations has significantly reduced the capabilities of ISIS, and continued efforts can prevent its resurgence.
2-2- Regional cooperation: Neighboring countries and actors such as the Kurds see an interest in preventing the resurgence of ISIS. Establishing a stable and comprehensive order in post-Assad Syria is the most important task for regional and global powers to prevent the resurgence of ISIS.
2-3- Local Resistance: Many communities in Syria have been harmed by ISIS rule and may resist its return.
3- Signs of ISIS resurgence:
3-1- The number of terrorist attacks carried out and claimed by ISIS in Syria in the first half of 2024 more than doubled compared to the same period in 2023. From January to July 2024, ISIS carried out 153 terrorist attacks in Syria. country.
3-2- A CENTCOM statement released in July said it was monitoring daily reported attacks by ISIS in Syria, and that the group was monitoring attacks by the group in areas controlled by the United States and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. The actual number of attacks was shown to be 551 in the country. First half of 2024.
3-3- ISIS has been slowly and systematically rebuilding since 2020 in areas of Syria where Bashar al-Assad’s regime was unable to cope with scattered rebel forces. Looking at the number of deaths from ISIS terrorist operations in Syria in 2023, 82 people died in areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces and 566 people died in areas controlled by the central government.
3-4- Over the past six months, ISIS has strengthened its access to logistics, supply chains, and secure production, including the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), last used in 2019. It is.
3-5- ISIS intensified its infiltration into urban areas in 2024, attacking strategic locations such as oil and gas facilities, and putting military checkpoints on the agenda.
3-6- Turkey considers the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to be an extension of the PKK in the country, has designated them as terrorists, and therefore wants to destroy them. Given that this group is one of ISIS’s main adversaries, they are facing increasing attacks from the Syrian National Army (as Turkey’s proxy force) and ISIS. If this situation continues, the Kurds will be forced to share operational capabilities with both sides of the conflict, leading to operational weakness and possibly a resurgence of ISIS in the country.