CNN
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President Donald Trump has joined Israel’s attacks on Iran, raising questions about whether such intervention could lead to changes in Tehran’s regime.
Iran, home to the longtime separatist movement that fought for power and independence, could face internal fragmentation and chaos if its government collapses. Experts warn.
Trump reportedly rejected Israel’s plan to kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and said this week that Iran’s top leader was a “easy target.”
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Super Leader’ is hiding,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social Post Tuesday. “He’s an easy target, but he’s safe there – we won’t take him out (kill him!), or at least not for now.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also not been ruled out as Khamenei’s target, saying that the death of the supreme leader “will not escalate the conflict and will end the conflict.”
On Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Katz went further and declared that Khamenei could not “continue to exist” after Iranian missiles struck hospitals in Israel.
Iran is a country of over 90 million people and is one of the oldest continuing civilizations in the world. That boundary has been more or less stable for about 100 years. The Islamic Republic was able to preserve these frontiers despite its diverse population of ethnic and religious groups. Many of them seek autonomy at various points.
However, comments from Israeli and US officials have prompted speculation about what Iran would look like if Khamenei was killed. Experts warn that the country could face a variety of scenarios, including the collapse of government and civil war.
The 86-year-old clergyman has ruled Iran for more than 35 years as the highest authority to rise to power 10 years after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 overthrew the US-backed monarch.
For many years he integrated power and ruled with iron grips under strict Islamic law. He crushed the waves after a wave of protest demanding freedom in society – each increasing its ferociousness – and expanded Iran’s reach far beyond its boundaries through a network of proxy militias.
His fate becomes an issue, bringing attention to who will make him succeed, and how that uncertainty unleashes greater anxiety.
The Supreme Leader was selected by a meeting of 88 members for professionals and has not been officially named as successors. It is unclear who could replace Khamenei, but the process could take place as a separatist group that has long resented the Islamic Republic.
Israel has already killed some of Iran’s major military personnel, and experts say the regime is the weakest right now.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, said the change of administration would require Israel or the United States to have Khamenei’s successor and someone to send troops to the country.
Israel is Reza Pallavi, the US-based son of an abdicated Iranian monarch who was exiled in 1979. Pahlavi expressed support for Israel’s actions, garnering praise from some of the Iranian diaspora and provoking accusations of betrayal from many others.
“Immediately in Tehran,” Israeli Minister Amichiy Chikuri, who is in the diaspora affair, posted on X on Friday, with a photo of herself shaking hands with a smiling Pallavi. Pahlavi told BBC News on Sunday that Israel’s conflict with Iran was an opportunity to overthrow the Iranian regime.
Experts say if the Supreme Leader is killed and the Guardian Council names his successor, the risk of instability could increase.
The possible outcome of the possible killing of Khamenei is the collapse of the entire administration, Parsi said.
“The collapse of the government is about bringing down the nation and causing chaos that follows,” Parsi told CNN.
If the Iranian regime collapses, there could be some scenarios, but none of them is expected to be a preference for the US or neighboring states, experts said.
Hamed Musabi, an associate professor of international relations at Tehran University, warned that military intervention “is rarely leading to democratization.”
“Look at the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan. Both countries have been unstable for many years,” Musabi told CNN, adding that Iran is “even more complicated” than those countries.
One outcome is that other elements of the Iranian military assume power. They are unlikely to seek diplomatic routes with Israel or the United States, but they could take a hawk approach rather than viewing possession of nuclear bombs as the only deterrent to more attacks, Parsi said.
The military faction that can be taken over “is not the kind of administration the United States may have had in mind,” Parsi said.
Another possible scenario is a descent into chaos as multiple ethnic groups in Iran compete for power.
Iran has a diverse population, including Persians, Azeris, Arabs, Baroques and Kurdish people. Under Khamenei’s decades of rule, the Islamic Republic was able to contain primarily civil and ethnic unrest, despite the abuses faced by several groups.
According to Amnesty International last year, minorities face discrimination in “education, employment, proper housing and access to the Politburo.” “We have continued lack of investment in areas where ethnic minorities live, exacerbating poverty and alienation.”
According to the Minority Rights Group, Azelis accounts for around 16% of Iran’s total population. Shia groups are the largest and most integrated minority in the Islamic Republic, but still face inequality.
Arabs account for up to 4 million people and have been marginalized for many years.
The Baroque people, a group of Baloch-speaking tribes, make up almost five million people in Iran’s population. Mostly Sunni groups extend to neighbouring Pakistan and Afghanistan, increasing the likelihood of separatist conflicts rippling across the border.
The “Army of Justice” organization, a Baroque Sunni extremist group, has shown support for Israel’s strike against Iran, saying, “It is clear that the current attack is not in Iran, but in the Belayat-e-Faki regime.
The Kurds make up about 10% of Iran’s population, and most settle along the border between Iraq and Turkey. They are the subject of “deep-rooted discrimination,” Amnesty said.
The Kurdistan Liberal Party, an Iranian nationalist and separatist extremist group, issued a statement in support of Israel’s strike, supporting “the process of destroying Iran’s military and security capabilities.”
The Iranian Kurdish rebellion is a major concern for neighboring Iraq and Turkey, both of which have a Kurdish minority who have sought independence.
Another banished group that has gained support from conservatives in the US is Mujahadin-E Khalq (MEK), who once was a US-designated terrorist organization, but today counts prominent anti-Iranian politicians as important ally. Iran has denounced terrorism, saying it had launched a series of attacks in the 1980s. MEK denies these fees.
It is one of the most organized opposition groups facing the Islamic Republic, but has little support among the Iranians. It is mainly due to its violent past and its support for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein during almost a decade-long war with Iran.
If the Iranian regime collapses, “there will be supportive of Israelis and perhaps the US national separatist groups,” Parsi said. This will lead to a situation in which the remains of the state are consumed by combat separatists.
Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, executive director of the Non-Violence Initiative for Democracy and a former Iranian lawmaker who opposes the current administration, has expressed fear that Iran could fall to the Ministry of Home Affairs if the current rules fall.
“I want to remove this regime. I’m against it,” she told CNN’s Becky Anderson. “My main concern is… seeing signs of a civil war.”