The development of the Middle East has been rapid and surprising over the past year. One of these surprises is the friendship between the two former rivals. Syrian transitional president Ahmed al-Sharah held a meeting with Mazurum Abdi, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
On Monday, March 10, 2025, the parties agreed that Syrian Kurds officially abandoned their pursuit of independence and joined the new government.
The terms of this Agreement include:
SDF civilian and military institutions will be integrated into the new state.
Airports and oil fields in the northeast are under the control of the Al Shaala regime.
It recognizes Kurdish elements as an integral part of the Syrian state, ensuring the right to citizenship and all constitutional qualifications.
Implementation on all Syrian territories.
It ensures all Syrians’ rights to political processes and participation in all government agencies based on efficiency and merit, regardless of their religion or sectarian background.
Ensuring the return of all Syrian refugees to cities and villages and ensuring safety by the Syrian government.
It supports the Syrian government in the fight against the “remains of Bashar al-Assad’s regime” and all the elements of threat that put its security and unity at stake.
This report examines the reasons for this agreement between Alshara and Abdi, as well as the geopolitical implications for Syria and the Western Asia region.
Why did the Kurds agree to work with the new Syrian government?
Syrian Kurds and extremist Muslim groups fought each other during the Syrian civil war. Both sides had no political, ideological or cultural similarities. Despite its leadership relationship with extremist group Hayat Taharil Al-Sham (HTS), the Kurds’ decision to work with the new Syrian government comes from several factors.
The US withdrawal from northeastern Syria. Five years later, after returning to the White House, Trump doubled his “America First” stance, claiming that Syria is not a US fight. On February 5, 2025, Trump and his nearby officials asked about pulling all US troops from Syria, urging the Pentagon to plan a full withdrawal in 30, 60 or 90 days. During the Civil War years, Syrian Kurds were able to acquire important positions in the country’s northeastern part thanks to US military and political support. However, as the pattern of US presence in the region and Washington moves towards a compromise with Ahmed Alshara, Kurds are now under pressure to abandon their independent independence against Turkey and Damascus and enter the structure of the central Syrian government.
Okaran’s statement and PKK disarmament. The agreement between the new Syrian government and the Kurds calls for extremist groups to lie down arms and break up about two weeks after a historic message from Abdullah Okaran, founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Disarmament of the Turkish PKK means disbanding the group, and the Syrian Kurds lose one of their most important supporters. In fact, Okaran’s statement as the main ideological ideologicalist of the Rojava Autonomous Regime signifies the end of the » democratic Confederate ideology formed in northeastern Syria. As one of the oldest Kurdish moves, the PKK has at least reached a stage where, if not completely dissolved in the future, it has at least experienced changes in its nature and intellectual and structural changes. The decision of the PKK leader has also had an impact on the SDF and the Kurdish militia in Syria.
Frustration and lack of support from Arabs in the Northeast region. Tribalism is a major form of Arab Sunni collective identity across Syria, whether they live in rural or urban areas. Tribes are a powerful source of sociopolitical mobilization. Syrian Arab tribes live in the east, northeast, central and southeast. Some of these tribes also exist in the Jazilla region and the provinces of Al Hasaka, Raqqa and Deia Ezole. Some of these tribes, especially in areas where most of the population is Arab, are opposed to Kurdish rule. Critics raised this issue as one of the most important weaknesses of Kurdish domination. In recent years, autonomous troops and Arabs have clashed violently many times, with the two having repeatedly redrawn border areas. With the emphasis on Kurdish ideals, Arab tribes could not find any benefits or place for Arabic and identity within the boundaries of Rojawa. Tribal leaders who previously worked with the Assad government and Iran to eliminate Syrian democratic troops are now supportive of Damascus. The new Alshara government and Turkey encouraged most Arab tribes to oppose the Kurds, spurring an armed rebellion. The SDF was not supported by Arabs in the Northeast.
Rojava economic and livelihood issues. The Syrian civil war, Turkish military attacks on the SDF, closure of crossings, Kurdish confinement in certain geography, oil, unemployment, drought and the inability to sell in recent years to cut economic aid from Europe and the US have all faced a massive amount of economic troubles. Previously, the Bashar al-Assad government and Iraqi Kurdistan, which are under the control of the opposition, also destroyed this revenue stream as they purchased oil from them at low prices. The SDF needed economic resources to survive, but there was no prospect.
The impact of agreements on Syria and the region
The deal represents Damascus’ three victories. First, the Damascus government establishes their territorial and political control and recognition as a legitimate government in Syria. The second aspect is an economic victory as the contract will allow access to Damascus to oil and gas revenues in eastern Syria. This is very important in the larger scheme of things. Third, for Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, the contract is a way to show stability and reassure the West of his commitment to protecting minorities.
One of the most important influences of this agreement is that it could be a model for interaction with other Syrian minorities, such as Alawis, Christians and Druze. If this agreement is successful, the future of political stability will look bright. Otherwise, Syria’s political stability will undergo various developments over the years.
The terms of this contract are general and its implementation is currently unknown, but the current situation is primarily in favor of Turkey and is considered an outcome of Ankara. This situation is exploitable at both the regional and national political levels of Turkey. Erdogan and the Judicial and Development Party can present these recent achievements as strong points in future election campaigns. These developments could also advance policies related to peace with the Kurdish people. The New Deal recognizes Kurds as Syrian ethnic groups and promises some degree of autonomy regarding their language and identity. This issue could also have great significance in the future negotiations of the PKK with Erdogan regarding Turkish Kurds.
Iran and Israel may have seen the agreement at a disadvantage as the Kurds may have served as counterweights to Erdogan’s power and Syria’s involvement. However, limited information on the lack of national or international enforcement guarantees and behind the scenes developments among all parties, various parties, including Israel, Turkey, Iran, Russia, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and the interim government itself.
Conclusion
For survival, all groups, particularly those who advocate for independence, require robust ideology, national and international support, economic resources and strong leadership. SDF has gradually lost all of this in recent years.
Loss of economic resources, abandonment of Abdullah Okaran’s ideological status, practical failures of the “democratic Confederates” and changing conditions in the Middle East and Syria have led to the withdrawal of domestic and international support for the group.
The oppressive forces of a unified Türkiye and Syrian transitional government will completely destroy Kurdish culture and politics. So it’s natural for them to try and get out of this situation. In the current situation, Kurds are pleased to acquire cultural and political privileges from the new government. These political and cultural privileges seem inadequate and may come at the expense of losing the autonomy of the “north and East Syrian autonomous regimes,” but we must not forget that during the Syrian Baath Party’s 60-year rules, the Kurds were not even recognized as minorities.
Ultimately, the future will show whether this agreement will really lead to integration of Kurds into the structure of the “Syrian citizen” state, or whether it is simply an attempt to alienate Kurdish forces and limit their capabilities in the face of pressure from the Turkey and the Damascus-Ankara axis. For now, the deal reflects a volatile, yet unstable survival strategy in an uncertain future.
MNA/