At first glance, US President Donald Trump’s latest message to Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be a threat.
President Trump on Wednesday called on President Putin to make a “deal” on Ukraine, exclaiming in a social media post, “We can do it the easy way or the hard way.”
If the “stupid war” does not end soon, Trump warned, “we will have no choice but to impose high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions on everything Russia sells to the United States.”
But after years of international financial pressure aimed at punishing Russia’s various malign activities, it remains to be seen what further changes President Trump is considering. It is unknown whether
Remember: Russia is already one of the most sanctioned countries in the world, has minimal trade with the United States, and has so far refused to change its course.
After years of failed U.S. efforts to rein in Russia’s destructive behavior abroad, from wars to poisoning to election interference, Trump’s latest ultimatum is a real threat to decisive action. Rather than a threat, it seems more like an attempt to pander to the new administration’s Russia hawks.
Far more important, President Trump has publicly offered to broker a peace deal. Even if it’s wrapped up in a backhanded insult.
“I’m going to do a lot of good for Russia and President Putin because of its struggling economy,” Trump wrote.
Russia’s wartime economy is certainly under great strain, and Russian opinion polls consistently show that the public’s real enthusiasm for President Putin’s relentless fight for full control of neighboring Ukraine is low. It suggests that there is no.
True, Putin has become increasingly authoritarian and has little accountability to voters, but the Kremlin still closely monitors public opinion, and Trump’s departure is quietly welcomed by Putin. That might be the case.
But the Kremlin is likely to see a ceasefire as a valuable opportunity to secure territorial gains and rebuild its exhausted military. For Putin, that would certainly be a “very big favor.”