CNN
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Since Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran on Friday, demands for an Iranian government have grown from Hawks in the US Congress to Israeli officials and Iranian activists overseas.
They say that the Islamic Republic has been significantly weakened and it is now time to capitalize on domestic unrest and public dissatisfaction to bring about the overthrow of dominant office facilities, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in his head.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday that Israeli operations could “certainly” lead to a change of government as Iran’s government is “very weak.” He argued that “80% of people would abandon these theological thugs.”
“They shoot women because their hair is found. They shoot students. They just suck oxygen out of these brave and talented people, Iranian people,” Netanyahu said. “The decision to act this time is a decision of the people of Iran.”
Free speech has been significantly restricted in Iran, and there has been no massive domestic calls to overthrow the regime following Israeli attacks. However, experts say Netanyahu may have misunderstood the sentiment of Iranian people, and the strike could backfire.
The Israeli attack is likely to turn national rage on Israel as domestic issues are temporarily placed aside while Iranians run towards shelter, experts say.
“Iranian activists, those who fought for life for freedom and justice, know that first and foremost, their values have little to do with people like Netanyahu,” Arash Azitzi, a New York City-based Iranian expert and author of the book “What Iranians Want,” told CNN. They recognize that Netanyahu’s right-wing government “is not in line with their values at all.”
Iran has seen nationwide protests against the regime in recent years, particularly in 2022 and 2023, but is said to have not been properly worn by Iranian moral police due to the detention of Mahasa Amini, a 22-year-old woman, caused by the death of Mahsa Amini’s detention. Many activists have since been detained, and authorities have curbed further protests and instilled fears associated with increased criminal prosecutions and executions. The dissatisfaction is spreading.
However, while experts and Iranians currently live under Israeli bombings, most Iranians said they did not see Netanyahu or his government as having a solution to the domestic problems.
Most of those who spoke with CNN recently did not want to be named for security reasons and none of them expressed support for Netanyahu’s call for the rebellion.
Local Iranian journalists told CNN that while some believe the conflict could be an opportunity for a potential promotion of a change of government, they want to build their own future. Others believe that Israel’s attacks are not the correct basis for political change, and that such changes should occur through democratic procedures.
Another journalist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told CNN that perceptions at home weren’t weak in the administration and that people were unlikely to protest while the city was bombed.
“The Iranian people have been fighting the Islamic Republic for years and have worked hard for democracy and freedom,” the journalist said from Tehran. “However, in the current situation, we believe that anyone who is terrified under missiles or explosions and is trying to protect their children or loved ones does not have the psychological or practical ability to “take them down the street.” The streets that are constantly under attack are now even empty than ever. ”
Furthermore, from a public perspective, the Islamic Republic has not yet become weak enough to collapse through protests. Actions against the regime during the war will lead to brutal oppression,” the journalist said, adding that “now the regime has a free rein to label those whom it wants as an Israeli universe.”
Others say that in an era of national crisis, no matter how unhappy they are, people are likely to support unity. For them, foreign intervention is the red line.
“There is no support for them to give to Netanyahu’s war against themselves and their society. If there is, they are now organising to support each other,” Ajitsi said, referring to the anti-established Iranians. “The idea that this leads to some sort of general uprising that will overthrow the regime is rarely grounded in reality.”
Even in the diaspora, which is home to many anti-physical Iranians, has been angry at Israeli actions, and activists are seeking unity in the face of Israeli attacks.
Narju Mohammadi, one of Iran’s most prominent human rights activists and 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner, spent many years in prison in a prison that supports say is politically motivated charges.
She and other Iranian activists, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi and filmmakers Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasorov.
“This conflict not only destroys infrastructure and claims civilian lives, but also constitutes a serious threat to the very foundations of human civilization,” they write.
In recent years, Israel has strengthened its relationship with Reza Pallavi, the US-based son of Iran’s abdicated monarch. Pahlavi expressed support for Israel’s actions, garnering praise from parts of the Iranian diaspora and praised the accusations of betrayal from others.
“Immediately in Tehran,” Israeli Minister Amichiy Chikuri, who is in the diaspora affair, posted on X on Friday, with a photo of herself shaking hands with a smiling Pallavi. Pahlavi told BBC News on Sunday that Israel’s conflict with Iran was an opportunity to overthrow the Iranian regime.
“The ultimate solution is regime change,” he said. “We have the opportunity now, because this regime is at its weakest point.
His US-backed father had warm connections with Israel before he overthrew the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
Israel slammed Iran on a four-day strike, attacking the residential area and the country’s private infrastructure. At least 224 people have been killed in the country since hostilities began on Friday, the health ministry said on Sunday.
Israel has targeted nuclear sites in several countries, saying it is doing so to stop the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons, but civilians seem to bear the brunt of the attack.
Iran retaliated in Israel by launching 370 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones, the Israeli Prime Minister said. By Monday morning, 24 people had died and 592 others had been injured in Israel.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that “the residents of Tehran will pay the price,” later making it clear that Israel has no intention of harming civilians.
Israeli officials “do not pretend” to worry about the safety of Iranian civilians, said Azitzi, an Iranian expert.
Iranian President Masuud Pezeshkian called for unity in a statement released through state media. “The Iranians must hold their hands together and stand strong against the attacks launched against us,” Pezeshkian said, adding that the Iranians are “not invaders,” defending Iran’s rights to a peaceful nuclear program.
With that operation, Israel took away some of Iran’s most senior military officials, including the powerful Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). Even if leadership changes, it may not look like what Netanyahu wants, Iranian experts said.
Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaji News Outlet, wrote, “It’s not something Netanyahu has in mind, a change of government is a possibility, just.”
Other countries in the region are also wary of Netanyahu’s power to change government.
“Nationalism tends to intensify when the country feels it’s under attack,” said Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates on the Paris-based journal Le Grand.
Asked about Netanyahu’s call for an uprising in Iran, Ghagash said, “The region cannot be reshaped by force and conflict. In the short term, some issues may be solved, but this will at least lead to serious others.”
Speaking to CNN, Iranians said they don’t believe Israel’s actions are helping their country.
“Netanyahu attacked us. And now he expects to overthrow Khamenei while we are worried about our own survival while standing for bread and fuel? said one Iranian journalist who spoke to CNN.
“Of course, I’m happy to see the leaders of this administration – their hands stained with the blood of our children – have been killed. But the death of ordinary people is painful.”