CNN
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The US has obtained a new intelligence report indicating that Israel is preparing to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities despite the Trump administration’s pursuit of diplomatic deals with Tehran.
Such a strike is a brave break with President Donald Trump, US officials said. It also risks overturning wider regional conflicts in the Middle East. This is something the US has been trying to avoid since the war in Gaza that began in 2023 became inflamed.
Authorities are not clear that Israeli leaders have made the final decision, and in fact there is a deep disagreement with the US government about the possibility that Israel will ultimately act. Whether and how will Israel’s strikes likely depend on what they think of the US negotiations with Tehran on the nuclear program?
But “the likelihood of Israel’s strike at Iran’s nuclear facility has increased significantly in recent months,” said another person familiar with the intelligence of the US on the issue. “And the prospects for Trump-related US-Iran’s deals that don’t rule out all of Iran’s uranium will increase the likelihood of strikes.”
The growing concern comes from public and private messaging from high-ranking Israeli officials as well as from considering such a move, as well as obstructing Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements that suggest an imminent strike.
Among the military preparations observed by the US are the movement of air force ammunition and completion of air movement, two sources say.
However, these same indicators could be that Israel is trying to put pressure on Iran. Otherwise, they are attempting to abandon the important tenets of the nuclear program by signaling the outcome.
CNN has called for comments from the National Security Council and the Israeli Prime Minister. The Israeli Embassy in Washington did not comment.
Trump publicly threatened military action against Iran if his administration’s efforts to negotiate a new nuclear deal to limit or eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program failed. But Trump also put restrictions on how long the US will be engaged in diplomatic efforts.
In a letter to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in mid-March, Trump set a 60-day deadline for successful efforts, according to sources familiar with communications. It has been more than 60 days since the letter was delivered, and there have been 38 days since the first round of talk began.
A senior western diplomat who met with the president earlier this month said Trump told them he would only give those negotiations a few weeks before the US resorts to military strikes. But for now, the White House policy is part of diplomacy.
Israel is “between rocks and difficult places,” said Jonathan Panikov, a former high governor official who specializes in the area. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure to avoid US-Iran dealings that Israel doesn’t consider satisfactory, but Trump has not alienated either.
“At the end of the day, Israeli decisions are based on US policy decisions and actions, and whether or not President Trump will challenge an agreement with Iran,” Panikov said.
Iran has the weakest military position in decades after Israel bombed missile production and air defense facilities in October, coupled with an economy weakened by sanctions and the destruction of Israel’s most powerful regional proxy. According to US officials, Israel is looking at the window of opportunity.
The US is bolstering its intelligence news collection to prepare Israeli leaders to support them in the event they decide to strike, one of the top US officials told CNN. However, sources familiar with the Trump administration’s ideas said it is unlikely that CNN will help the US strike at Iranian nuclear sites at this time, leading to some major provocations by Tehran.
Israel has no capacity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program without US aid, including air refueling and bombs needed to penetrate deep underground facilities.
Israeli sources told CNN that if the US negotiates what Israel describes as a “bad deal” with Iran that Israel cannot accept, Israel is ready to carry out military action on its own.
“If they think Trump will settle for a ‘bad deal’, I think it’s likely they’ll try to break the deal,” said others familiar with the intelligence of the US. “The Israelites are not shy about signaling us that.
The US intelligence report assessment from February suggested that Israel could use either military aircraft or long-range missiles to harness Iran’s degraded air defense capabilities, CNN previously reported.
However, the same assessment explained that such a strike minimizes Iran’s nuclear program and is not a cure.
“It’s a real challenge for Netanyahu,” Panikov said.
For now, discussions with the US are clinging to the demand that Tehran enriches it, rather than enriching the processes required to generate nuclear power for private purposes, rather than enriching it.
Steve Witkoff, the special envoy group that leads the US delegation, told ABC News over the weekend that Washington “can’t even allow 1% of its strengthening capacity” under the agreement. “We’ve provided suggestions to the Iranians, but I think we’re working on some of these without underestimating them,” he said.
Khamenei said Tuesday he did not expect negotiations with the US over Tehran’s nuclear program to “reach a conclusion,” and the US calls for Iran to not enrich uranium as a “big mistake.” Iran claims it has the right to enrich under the United Nations Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and says it will not waive it under any circumstances.
According to Witkov, another round could take place in Europe this week. Both the US and Iran made proposals to the table, but after more than a month of consultations promoted by Oman, there is no current US proposal for Trump’s sign-off, sources said.
In February, the US intelligence agency issued a warning that Israel is likely to try to hold the key to Iran’s nuclear program this year, CNN previously reported.
“It’s consistently Israeli position, and military choice is the only option to halt Iran’s military nuclear program,” a US official noted.
CNN’s Kylie Atwood, Zachary Cohen, Alex Marquardt and Oren Liebermann contributed to this report.