Tehran – Western Province has long used the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as a tool for pressure on Iran. They recycle Israeli intelligence reporting agencies and shout “non-compliance” if diplomatic progress fails to bring concessions from Iran. But despite years of this tired strategy and the continued well-intentioned cooperation of Iranians, Tehran may be ready to ultimately reset the equation.
Such a move is useful as a long-standing consideration for the IAEA that allowed them to be consistently politicized, and for Western countries that have mispersed themselves with weakness.
According to reports from Western media, the IAEA in a confidential report to member states that Iran was unable to report nuclear activity in three undeclared locations, raising concerns about the enrichment of purity of up to 60% of the country’s uranium stockpile. Using these claims, the United States, the UK, Germany and France are preparing adoption resolutions at the IAEA Committee’s June 9 meeting. If passed, this would mark Iran’s first formal non-compliance designation in nearly 20 years.
The story of Iran’s nuclear program
Iran’s nuclear program began before the Islamic Revolution and between the Shah regime. It gained momentum for some time after the establishment of the Islamic Republic and has since been under Western scrutiny, which has debilitated sanctions to enforce restrictions during the Obama administration.
The IAEA paves the way for the revitalization of “snapback,” a JCPOA mechanism that expires in October. Iran agreed to sit at the negotiation table in the 2010s. After years of intense negotiations, Tehran and the 5+1 countries (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) signed a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015.
After President Donald Trump left the agreement in 2018 and reconsidered sanctions on the country, Western countries have once again begun bagging Iran. The economic blockade has grown even more bravely as Washington expanded it to include secondary sanctions and effectively threatened third-party countries operating with Tehran.
European signatories of the deal said initially they opposed Trump’s decision and wanted to save the deal. But they halted the law after Joe Biden, the more European president, took office. Over time, E3 (UK, France, Germany) introduced its own sanctions, but Iran hypocritically demanded that it continue to comply with the JCPOA obligations.
Iranians have been patient historically, but not
Iran has been played in the West for the past few years, but the country has decided to give diplomacy another opportunity. Iran began indirect talks with the US this April, even proceeding to fill E3 separately despite their ally Washington rejecting Europe’s presence in the debate itself.
But despite Iran’s demand for diplomatic involvement, the western province continues its relentless pressure campaign. The latest IAEA report has reversible fatigue claims, but its true importance is that it provides the West with justification that triggers the so-called snapback mechanism before the October expiration deadline. This mechanism that automatically reimposes all UN sanctions on Iran can only be evoked if a JCPOA signator declares Iran non-compliant. The US lost snapback authorities after waiving the deal in 2018, but European signatories have repeatedly threatened to exercise the option themselves.
According to analysts, the goal is to force Iran to abandon its uranium enrichment capabilities as part of its new contract with Washington. However, Iranians have repeatedly said they will never halt uranium enrichment and will maintain the rights given under the NPT, with or without contracts.
What Iran will do next was revealed in a statement released on Sunday by Qasem Gallibabadi, a senior diplomat and a member of the team involved in consultations with the US.
“Iran does not pursue nuclear weapons, and does not have nuclear material or activity that has not been declared. Iran has been committed to all its duties up until now. The costs Iran has been incurring have been to maintain dignity, honor, progress and immobility in the face of coercion and hegemonic ambition,” he wrote.
“If these states abuse Iran’s patience and choose to stick to the wrong path, Iran will be forced to commerce on the evolving circumstances and actions of other parties, adopting and implementing the full extent to which appropriate decisions, responsibilities, consequences and their impacts are fully applied to those states.”
The Deputy Minister did not specify any actions that Iran could take if the West pursued more destructive measures. However, he previously said that if snapbacks were activated, Iran would consider leaving the NPT, a treaty that would limit the development of nuclear weapons.