Trump first entered into negotiations with the Russian side, listened to their opinions, and then presented his plan. That’s because in recent months Russia has captured vital areas of Ukraine, effectively gaining the upper hand on the battlefield. This makes the plan presented by President Trump advantageous for Russia.
Under this plan, NATO must agree not to further expand its range. This means that in the future, not only will Ukraine not be recognized as a member state, but other countries will also not be able to join. According to this plan, important oblasts such as Luhansk and Crimea will be completely annexed into Russian territory, leaving Ukraine with no choice in this regard. Two other important cities will also be designated as buffer zones, giving Russia and Ukraine a kind of joint governance. In return, Russia will guarantee not to attack Ukraine again, but importantly, the United States must also guarantee the implementation of this plan. President Zelenskiy opposes this plan, and it seems highly unlikely that he will accept it. Even if he were to put it to a referendum, Ukrainians are unlikely to vote in favor of such a plan.
The UK, Germany and France are the losers and also oppose the plan, which is why President Trump has threatened that the US will take other action against the UK if the UK, Germany and France do not accept. The American envoy also went to Russia to please President Putin. This is because, as mentioned above, it is now more important for the United States to please President Putin than it is to satisfy NATO members.
The United States and its allies appear to be facing major disagreements over Ukraine, but the situation on the ground in Ukraine has deteriorated so much that whether or not President Zelenskiy accepts the plan will not make much of a difference to the final outcome. Evidence on the ground suggests that unless NATO becomes more involved and provides further support to Ukraine, more territory could be lost and Ukraine could find itself in an even worse situation. At the same time, NATO has no serious intention to intervene militarily in the Ukraine crisis. Ukraine therefore appears to be the main loser of this plan, both on the ground and in terms of national prestige.
Finally, if Europe and Zelensky accept this plan, it will be a major setback on NATO’s record.
MNA