London – West Asia’s future direction remains uncertain, but one basic principle holds. Power determines survival. Those who lack strength, including the occupation of Israel, are unbearable. Meanwhile, Strong will integrate their position.
This is an important understanding. Power offers opportunities for integration.
The actor, who ignores Trump and proves that the region does not belong to America, insists on itself and encourages Trump’s response to retreat. Trump doesn’t consider the region strategically important. He promotes the worst case solution to achieve the greatest compromise, but when faced with resistance, he retreats.
The main goal behind Yemen’s attack was to send a message to Iran. Yemen’s response, however, reinforces important lessons. Power alone cannot break resolve. The same applies to Iran. Trump’s threat in negotiations is not forced to produce it. Even when Trump ordered the assassination of General Kasem Soleimani, he appealed to Iran to not retaliate. Now his rhetoric towards Iran remains blank.
If Israeli professional groups attack Iran, Iran’s response was quick, decisive, overwhelming, and unacceptable by Israeli settlers. Even with the entity, it is impossible to imagine Trump’s reversal. Trump has challenged very internal US institutions, not to mention the single issue of entities.
When revoking the work of America’s deep state, Trump may try to reclaim Syrian territory that was handed over to Erdogan.
Regarding NATO and Europe, Trump is more in line with Putin than with European leaders. He sees NATO as an American burden for European interests, not an American guardian. In reality, deep US states use NATO to implement their strategies through strategic partnerships with Europe. The demand for European countries to donate 5% of their GDP to NATO puts a major strain on the economy.
Regionally, America is trying to achieve what it could not have achieved through politics and through war. Discussions about forced displacement Gazan have declined, similar to the talk of expelling the leader of resistance. Currently, the US has rejected Egypt’s proposal as “inadequate.” This indicates the shift from the previous position when the displacement was on the table. Trump works by proposing extreme scenarios to extract the biggest concessions.
In Lebanon, negotiations include removing Israel’s presence from five points in exchange for its long-term American purpose following Saudi Arabia’s normalization. If Lebanon resists, the US may push Syria-based extremists into Lebanon as leverage.
Ultimately, all American solutions are subject to change. Trump appears to believe that with the Gaza War halted, Arab countries should step in as temporary rulers and pave the way for Saudi Arabia to normalize. But these are distant ambitions and unrealistic suggestions. The area has become much worse.
Just as Canada does not become America’s 51st state, Greenland will not join the United States. Panama will demand that military aggression be absorbed, Trump’s grand vision remains incredible. Trump today is no different from his first term. Except that he is more confident now. He sees himself as a leader who can enact major change. However, his biggest battle is not overseas, but America itself.
The local situation remains complicated, but what is needed is the integration of immobility and power.