CNN
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It may be happening again.
The President is driven by events, the fear of the spreading weapons of mass destruction, and the need to support his own words.
In Washington, there is growing hope that Donald Trump will soon listen to Israel’s call. Israel seeks to take a critical blow to Iran’s nuclear program using weapons that destroy bunkers that only the US can deliver.
The president’s rhetoric has sped up after the apparent success of Israel’s early barrages that wiped out top military leaders and nuclear scientists and severely degraded Iran’s ability to defend itself.
CNN also reported on Tuesday that it warmed the idea that Trump would use US military assets to attack Iran’s nuclear sites, and soured previous, unsuccessful attempts to resolve the issue through consultations with Iran.
As always with Trump, we have to ask if his harsh story is true. Perhaps he is trying to bully Iran for the “unconditional surrender” that demanded on diplomacy and social media.
This looks like a dream.
“As long as President Trump is trying to capitalize on Israel’s attacks on Iran, it simply won’t work to surrender Iran’s leader,” Ali Vez, director of the Iran project for the international crisis group, told Becky Anderson on Tuesday at CNN International’s “Connced the World.” “What they see at the end of this slippery slope is basically a complete surrender and a breakdown of the regime.”
And Israel’s preemptive attack on Iran appears to be motivated in part by saying that the president, who has recently been ignored by Russian Vladimir Putin and China’s XI jinping, could stop Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
But Trump may be on the brink of a huge gamble that rejects his own political principles.
His own harsh empt against the US president, who pushed for a change of government, played a major role in 2015 by jumping into the politics of a former reality star. If he goes to war in Iran, Trump will ignore the massive sector of his MAGA movement. The “America First” president would become the kind of interventionist he had a bit of spitting.
Still, there are loopholes in Trump’s isolationism. He always argues that he will never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons given Iran’s threat to eradicate Israel and his swearing hostility with the United States.
Trump is deliberating whether to use a £30,000 “large weapon intruder.” Guided bombs destroy Iran’s nuclear power plants buried under concrete hundreds of feet of the mountain.
But there is a lack of important things.
This is an extraordinary omission, given that Washington’s unfortunate adventures in the 21st century, began the war and tried to leave the biggest part of the 20 years.
“Anyone who is leading the US into a war with Iran has forgotten very quickly the disasters of the Iraq and Afghan war,” Sen. Chris Murphy told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Tuesday. Democrats in Connecticut have “eventually become a quagmire that killed thousands of Americans and created new rebellions against the interests of the United States and local allies.”
The US rolled over to Iraq in 2003 and quickly defeated the tyrant Saddam Hussein. But it disintegrated the Iraqi state and unleashed the vicious rebellion that ultimately ended with the defeat of the United States. Fragile stability just returned to Iraq over 20 years later.
In Afghanistan, President George W. Bush’s post-9/11 invasion drove out the Taliban leader, carrying Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda. But the failed 20 years of nation-building led to a humiliating US withdrawal in 2021, shattering claims that then-President Joe Biden was a leading foreign affairs figure.
President Barack Obama had his own debacle. He was persuaded by his European allies and his own aides to overthrow Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011 to defeat Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi. The arrogance of the US over Libya has long since declined. But it’s dangerous and poverty.
Trump knows all this.
The moment it became clear that he would have been forever changing the Hawkish Republican when he denounced his primary rival Jeb Bush in a 2016 debate about his brother’s war. “The war in Iraq was a big fat mistake,” Trump said.
And he hasn’t forgotten. He reminded the world last month with a massive speech in Saudi Arabia.
“The so-called state builders were destroying far more countries than they built, and interventions were intervening in complex societies where interventions didn’t even understand themselves,” Trump said. “They taught you how to do it, but they didn’t know how to do it themselves.”
Is Trump going to be one of his own examples now?
Iran is not Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan. History doesn’t have to repeat itself. Perhaps the Hawks, this time, include a catastrophic US military strike, can destroy Iran’s nuclear program and remove existential threats to Israel and US national security risks.
But Iran’s administrative regime will almost certainly have to respond just to protect its own authority. Depending on the remaining military capabilities after the Israeli onslaught, it could attack US personnel and bases in the area. Trump must respond with a cycle of escalation without a clear endgame.
Easily create nightmare scenarios. Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz and suffocate the oil flow to cause the Earth’s energy crisis. Or they might target rival oil fields in regions such as Saudi Arabia. Only one country can guide responses. This is because the United States was deeply absorbed into regional wars. Then there is the possibility of a mass Iranian cyberattack that can bring war to your homeland.
Few people will lament the Iranian regime if Israel pushes for a change of government or Iranians try to revolt its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
But political forces, or the jewel of the regime’s crown — its nuclear program — can cause immeasurable upheavals.
If 90 million countries suddenly become leaderless, including ethnic and sectarian fault lines between Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Baroque, Turkmen, Turkmen, Turks and Arabs, become leaderless, it could result in disorder or even worse.
A failed state meltdown could send millions of refugees to the Middle East and Europe when immigrants are already straining social cohesion and promoted extremism. A sudden security vacuum could lead to civil wars or brutal acquisitions from elements of the military or Islamic Revolutionary Security Force. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya know how quickly fear gushs out. Anxiety can spread throughout the region and threaten an already unstable country like Pakistan.
It is also worth asking how the US and Israeli governments protect the inventory of nuclear material exposed by attacks on Iran’s atomic plants and prevent it from falling into the hands of terrorists and illicit states.
As these possibilities are heard, they may not be important to Israeli thinking. After all, Netanyahu says that Iran’s nuclear bomb outlook could lead to the eradication of his country and Jews.
But the distant history of the present challenges the idea that our efforts and Israel are short and decisive. Israel has yet to eradicate Hamas despite months of artillery fire in Gaza, which has cost tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. Iran could be a bigger challenge. US efforts to shape Iran have almost constantly exacerbated support for the oppressive Shah Mohammad Reza Pallavi, which led to the Islamic revolution, including the 1953 CIA-backed coup, and Washington’s support for Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.
So why did Trump clearly bring his previous outfit to foreign wars?
If he gives the lead head for a US attack on Iran’s nuclear facility, he could end up where the president might have reached. All of his recent predecessors warned that Iran would never be allowed to get a bomb, but Trump might accuse him of failing in diplomacy and stopping it with his watch.
However, if Israel’s warning that Tehran is racing towards nuclear weapons is accurate, the US president is unable to stand up to the second Holocaust, especially those who destroyed the nuclear deal that Iran respected in his first term.
Perhaps it is no coincidence that Trump’s thinking evolved, given the obvious success of Israel’s early operations. He revealed on Tuesday that “we” had “full and complete control of the sky over Iran.” The potential low-risk environment for US bombers may seduce a president who worships General George Patton. He may feel a swift foreign policy victory to make up for his failure to be the peace manager he has promised. And he wanted to make the crow that he eradicated the threat from Iran, not Bush, Obama or Biden.
Still, he was a troubled war leader and did nothing to prepare the country for a new escape in the region stained with American blood and treasures. And Trump’s strategy of governing as a divisive strongman could deprive him of bipartisan public trust.
Suddenly, a man who takes great pride in not starting a new war has landed in a familiar place.
He is the president debating whether to send Americans into a new Middle Eastern conflict based on his dubious intelligence on weapons of mass destruction.
The fall of the war between Iraq and Afghanistan is located in Section 60 of Arlington National Cemetery. At least what they owes is an explanation of what will happen next if the first US bomb starts falling in Iran.