CNN
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That’s all for the quagmire.
Donald Trump appears to have won from the worst crisis of America’s alienation with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The president jumped over Tehran’s modest missile response on Monday to pound the nuclear site into the US as a sign that he wanted to end the escalation. “Congratulations, time of peace!” he posted to the True Society.
Trump’s vibrancy was a sign that, at least for now, the US saw it as involved in the conflict.
He then announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which is scheduled to come into effect on Tuesday. Certain wars in the Middle East are often fragile and fleeting, as highlighted by attacks by both Israel and Iran in the hours before the truce was established.
However, the president had already trumpeted the image of being chosen as the perfect deal maker with the Peacemaker, just 48 hours after the US stealth bombers denounced Iran.
“I think the ceasefire is unlimited. It’s going to go forever,” Trump told NBC News Monday night.
That’s a bold claim given the Middle East’s reputation as a cemetery for the US president. And for all Trump’s marketing skills, the event decides whether his breakthrough is due to actual fantasies.
Has the United States really guaranteed, as Trump argued, “eliminate” the existential threat to Israel, Iran’s nuclear program? Or does it mean that it’s all a classic Trump mirage, and the obviously lacking stockpile of this conflict, a very rich uranium that can become a bomb – a deeper crisis?
The swift end of the battle will shape Trump’s presidency and legacy, and boost foreign policy previously characterized by failures like the stagnant peace effort in Ukraine. But if he really helped ease the tensions in the bloody region, will the world change minds about the master of mixed-of?
What’s next for Israel? Will Trump trust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop his attack on Iran? And will Israel finally take steps to alleviate the suffering of Palestinian civilians, starving thousands of people in the onslaught of Gaza?
And in Tehran, will the humiliation of Iran’s administrative regime and the division of its terrifying Middle East network promote the political spring that many of its citizens long for?
The President can advocate for the most important foreign policy and military success of his time in an oval office. Trump bets that many skeptics view him as irresponsible. He thought he could smash Iran’s nuclear power plants without plunging the US into a new Middle Eastern quagmire to reflect Iraq.
So far, he has proven right. Trump may have been uneasy about Israel’s attack on Iran at first, but it was thought to have been calculated to attract him, but he insisted on control and misused openings to significantly degrade Iran’s nuclear program. After several days of public outings, his approach seemed like a dangerous premonition. Certainly he was lucky. However, he also demonstrates strategic insight and determinism, and is constantly immersed in bold missions with B-2 bombers carrying bunkerbuster bombs on marathon flights from Missouri.
If the conflict calms down now, Trump can at least get domestic political backing with the GOP and heal the rift at his Magazine base.
The crisis also gave important insights into Trump’s second presidency. He made it clear that he is neither a remnant of the Republican Hawks nor a “America First” populist. According to CNN Reporting, a central circle of trust has emerged within Trump, including Dan Kane’s co-director, CIA’s director John Ratcliffe and presidential envoy Steve Witkoff. However, the future for National Intelligence Director Tarsi Gabbard and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegses doesn’t seem to be that guaranteed.
The president is also determined to try again to get a contract with Iran to end the nuclear program through negotiations. However, he also tries to wield overwhelming military power, showing that he places dents in the diplomatic caricature of his tacos (“Trump is always chicken”).
Still, the crisis highlighted more troubling aspects of Trump’s leadership.
He politicized the mission by not preparing the country in advance, entrusting the United States to military action, and keeping the top Democrats out of the loop. This was the latest opportunity to show Trump a light emptying for Congress’ constitutional role and the feeling that he is an all-American president.
And he still doesn’t show the intelligence of the Americans he used to justify an attack because Iran was weeks away from his weapon. He ignored the US spy agency that discovered that Tehran had not made such a decision to build a bomb.
Trump also sniffed our allies and chuckled at their peace efforts. This was the clearest sign of a volatile New World era as the United States was separated from its alliance and mercilessly pursued its own national interests.
The president has already written his preferred version of what he calls “12 Days of War.” His claim to eradicate Iran’s nuclear program appears to be a FEINT to castrate the opposing evidence that already emerges. It will be brave American officials who contradict the president’s great victory.
Important issues arising from conflicts are unanswered.
However, in a late-night national speech on Saturday, Trump said the mission’s purpose was to “destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities and to stop the nuclear threat posed to the world’s number one national sponsor.”
Early estimates suggest that Iranian facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordau had been seriously damaged. But that’s too early for Trump’s bravery.
For example, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria Sunday that Iran “protected” its 400 kg of uranium, enriched at 60%.
Meanwhile, Trump is confident that his strategy will bomb Iran on the negotiation table and talk about replacing President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal. However, Iranian military leaders may learn lessons opposite to conflict. The only way the revolution can survive is to acquire a nuclear bomb that will stop future attacks. There are no indications yet that Trump’s terms of trade — a verifiable end to Iran’s uranium enrichment — will be accepted by Tehran.
“From a non-proliferation perspective, Trump’s decision to attack Iran was a reckless and irresponsible escalation that would likely bring Iran closer to nuclear weapons in the long run,” said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. “The strikes have damaged important Iranian nuclear facilities, like the underground Fordau enrichment sites, but Tehran had enough time before the strike and had enough time to remove a stockpile of uranium close to weapons into secret locations.
Non-proliferation expert Joseph Sillingion spoke to CNN’s Phil Mattinting about the “lead,” saying it is impossible to bomb Iranian knowledge and rich uranium, and that the facility could be built. He warned that missing uranium could be inserted into the new centrifuge needed to create a bomb core within five days and create a bomb core within ten bombs within three weeks.
“That’s my biggest concern. Are they competing to develop that weapon before the US or Israel finds gas or destroys it?”
If these fears come true, Trump’s victory lap and Republican admiration will be remembered as pure political negligence and catalysts for a future worse global crisis.
Lobbing missiles towards a vast US base in Qatar, Iran, was easily hampered by US and Qatar anti-measurements, revealing their weakness after giving away control of airspace to Israeli jets. Tehran’s grips are weakened even outside the border.
Regional Network of Islamic Revolutionary Guards – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Houtsis in Yemen were once considered Iranian insurance contracts against Israeli attacks on Israeli nuclear programmes. However, Israel’s 20-month attack ravaged its proxy and exposed its sponsors. Israel is the power of the dominant region now. And US allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar dominate the transformed Middle East.
Meanwhile, uncertainty is clouding Iran’s domestic politics.
The already difficult transition is now even more difficult, as the rules of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei enter. Outsiders will see if the regime’s grip will loosen as regular Iranian uprisings erupt. However, despite the demand for a change of government in Washington and Israel, more crackdown appears likely.
Politics is turbulent in Israel too. Netanyahu’s reluctance to reach a ceasefire with Hamas and his enthusiasm to fight Iranian soil is widely seen as a ploy to maintain power amid a personal scandal and to stop his clock attacks in order to prevent the accounting for October 7, 2023. Still, if relative peace returns, Netanyahu may get a political bounce to take on Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump Netanyahu’s dynamics are also intriguing. The US president doesn’t stop looking for leverage. If he had a tendency, he could exploit the enormous debt that Israel owed him to promote a peace deal in Gaza.
This latest scary episode of the Trump Show may be about to close.
But next week, adjust the equally extreme.