CNN
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He might do that. But he may not be. And you don’t know if he’ll do that. And then again, he doesn’t.
In either of Donald Trump’s Presidents, the riff ahead of the most struggling national security decisions is not like the complicated war game and careful cultivation of public opinion that most commanders of the most commanders demand before they send Americans to fight.
Trump’s vague monologue and vague comments on camera and online are even negligent, given the serious potential consequences of the US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.
But that’s how he rolls. He wants to continue to guess his friends and enemies. He shows that he believes unpredictability and volatility, the factors most presidents try to avoid in the national security crisis – will provide him with important advantages.
Trump loves to be the center of attention as the world rests on every word he says. His ambiguity creates space for him to postpone the moment of decision and avoid locking on a course of decisive action that he cannot turn back. His fans say it’s a genius. However, there is little evidence that strategies will be transferred from large real estate meeting rooms to complex geopolitical confrontations and global peace structures.
The Americans seen by Iranian Ayatollahs, Israel, US allies, Congressional members, critics, reporters and Americans at home can’t be sure what Trump will do next. And modern presidents have never managed preparations for a possible war, as if they were sketching a series of cliffhangers to force viewers to watch the next episode. Trump is not a nuclear war that calmly avoids nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis.
Trump critics fear the moment he faced an international crisis that he almost avoided during his first term. And his style has serious drawbacks.
His administration still has confidence in the American people and does not explain why he suddenly changed his view that Iran is not building nuclear weapons. Now Trump says it’s one to a few weeks away. No government intends to seek approval from Congress for new acts of war against Iran, as the Constitution requires. And he refuses to say how attacks on Iran’s nuclear power plants at Fordaw can echo through dangerous regions, and whether it reveals whether it has any exit strategies.
This is bothering on its own. But after plunging into the muddy swamp caused by a slight plan, following Washington’s tragic history, for the day after shock and patience began, it’s a fascinating fate. And Trump’s continuous injustice and burnt earth leadership style means millions of Americans need far more than he says to trust the decision to take military action.
The president’s plans may be a mystery. But his calculations are simple.
He must decide whether US interests will be provided by participating in Israeli attacks on Iran to try to destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program with the ability to destroy unique bunkers that only the United States has.
It’s a harsh call for potential consequences. Iranian attacks on US bases in the Middle East, potential terrorist attacks on US targets, shockwaves that could destabilise the world if Tehran’s regime collapses.
The latest developments are ominous. A third US aircraft carrier group is heading towards the Middle East. A fierce war of words between Trump and Iranian clergy is heating up. And the president is hanging out at a daily situation room meeting with his top national security aides.
CNN reported Wednesday that the president is obsessed with finding a way to strike a key target in Iran’s nuclear program without being dragged into a full-scale war. Sources familiar with the issue said they wanted to avoid conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan, saying he vowed to avoid them and used them as a catalyst among war-skeptical Maga voters.
These revelations may offer some comfort to the Americans as they suggest that the President has greater diligence than his off-hand patterns suggest.
There are several logics in his position. They could be targets of Iran and postwar national rebellion sitting, as did Iraq and Afghanistan. Trump’s first-term assassination attack, which killed Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s intelligence director, did not release anger towards the US targets that many analysts had anticipated. And US bases in the region are greatly protected against missile attacks. There are also some questions about how much Iran’s degraded troops can throw at the US and Israel.
However, US foreign policy over the past 25 years has been plagued by false assumptions about what will happen when the enemy is attacked. As Trump himself said in Saudi Arabia last month, US officials were often interfering with a society they didn’t understand.
So it’s fair to ask if Trump is thinking about what he’s into.
After the president’s public appearance on Wednesday, the world is unwise to see the world.
“I mean, I don’t know that I’m trying to do it. You don’t know. I might do it, I might do it. I mean, no one knows what I’m trying to do,” Trump told reporters who asked him about Iran’s plans to unveil two giant flagpoles at the White House. “Nothing is over until it’s finished. You know, war is very complicated. There are many bad things that can happen. There are a lot of turns being made.”
Later in the oval office, Trump told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that he had not made a final decision on what to do as he was surrounded by pressure on Israeli actions and warnings from his own MAGA base. “I have ideas about what to do, but I’m not doing the final thing. I like to make a final decision one second before it expires because things change.”
Trump’s lack of accuracy worries Democrats.
“It’s obviously unclear where his mind is now. I think he was pretty indecisive about Iranian subjects. I understand that,” California Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff said in the “Situation Room.”
“This is a difficult call, but I don’t think we’ve received much guidance on whether he’s optimistic about the discussions with Iran that are leaning towards a potential strike with Iran,” Schiff said he responded to one of Trump’s winding news outlets. “It was pretty vague and kind of a normal flow of consciousness.”
The US and Israel are confused about conflicting information assessments of Iran’s nuclear advancement. Virginia Democrat Sen. Mark Warner is part of a group of senior lawmakers who have been given access to the most sensitive and sensitive information. But he has a lot to do with anyone in the dark about the following:
“I’m a member of eight gangs. We should know,” Warner told CNN’s Casey Hunt. “It’s not foggy about what this administration’s plan is, what its foreign policy is, what Iran is.”
The issue of the administration’s contingent planning is also focused. But don’t expect more details.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegses faced Michigan Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin during a hearing Wednesday. Slotkin speaks from his experience. She was a CIA officer who completed a combat tour in Baghdad after an unfortunate lack of how the George W. Bush administration would win peace in Iraq.
“Have you ever commissioned a plan in a day?” Slotkin asked. “Protection of troops in Iran, the use of ground forces. Cost assessments are because we don’t doubt what we can do as a country and what we can do in the attack. It’s the day after Iraq and Afghanistan that many of us learn to be very deeply concerned.
Hegus responded casually. “Senators, I have all the plans,” he said.
Trump showed similar hub arrogance. “I have everything planned, but I’m watching what happens,” he told reporters in the oval office.
The president also says he is open to diplomacy. However, there are no signs of a James Baker-style peace shuttle.
It’s far from offering his enemies a face-saving off-ramp. Trump is initially demanding a full surrender. This may coincide with Israel’s goals, but it was a non-starter for Tehran’s revolutionary Iranian leadership, setting up a government against successive US presidents for over 45 years.
Trump often appears to be active in parallel universes. For example, he claims that Iranian leaders “want to come to the White House.”
Iran strongly rejected such a desire.
“We have not begged anything,” Deputy Minister Majid Takut Ravanch told CNN’s Christian Amanpur. “As long as the attack continues, as long as this atrocity continues, we cannot think of it as attractive.”
This refers to one of Trump’s diplomatic debts and also helps explain his failed Ukrainian peace drive. His administration shows little skill to create openings and multi-layered negotiation scenarios that could loosen its established position. Trump makes his biggest demand. If the interlocutor fails, the process will halt.
So for now, the country appears to be on its path to another Middle East venture, with uncertain consequences.
But Trump had another cliffhanger.
“Everything can happen,” he said. He was asked if the Iranian regime could fall into a response exemplifying his entire presidency.