CNN
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President Donald Trump’s onslaught of Iran’s nuclear power plants was the most violent moment of his two terms and the 46-year American showdown with the Islamic Republic.
With the corruption and washing away of the battle, he appears to have already messed around with the idea of a change of government.
However, the reality of whether Trump truly destroyed Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the consequences of his attacks are far more vague than his bullish claims suggest.
The president on Sunday argued that the damage to the three nuclear sites struck by the US was “monologic.” He posted on social media that “hits were difficult and accurate.”
The global round raid by B-2 stealth bombers from Missouri showed its unique scope of the US military and its continued effect despite the turbulence of the Trump administration at the Pentagon, using a previously unprecedented “bunkerbusting” bomb.
If Trump’s orders eradicated Iran’s nuclear program, or returned it for years, he could argue for the legacy’s achievements of lifting an existential threat to Israel. If Iran’s power is castrated, the Middle East can be transformed.
The president effectively tried to bomb Iran on the negotiation table and to the effective surrender of its ability to enrich uranium. But it’s a long shot whether the humiliation by the enemy Tehran will persuade “the great Satan” to sue for peace.
And, as Trump argues, there is growing doubt as to whether the weekend strikes have really “deleted” all of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. And the president has yet to share intelligence reports that Iran has convinced him that it is “a few weeks away” from the construction of nuclear weapons.
“Big boom and lots of dust”
It is important to establish whether Iran has recovered enriched nuclear material or moved ahead of the US strike. If so, Trump’s bid to eliminate the path to weapons could instead build a rudimentary device that catalyzes race by Tehran and makes the world a much more dangerous place.
“Anyone who says he has any idea about whether these attacks have done anything other than creating a big boom doesn’t know what they’re talking about,” a top Democrat on the House Intelligence Election Committee told CNN’s Kasie Hunt on Sunday.
In the meantime, everyone is waiting for Iran’s military revenge, and the Middle East is wary of new turmoil.
Tehran’s decision is fate. Yet another open-ended slide into the Middle East War is inevitable. However, history shows that when America tries to rebuild the region, it is almost always unavailable to the opening of “shock and adoration.”
Amir Seid Irabani, the Islamic Republic envoy to the United Nations, said on Sunday that “the timing, nature and size of Iran’s proportional response will be determined by the military.”
Meanwhile, there is growing uncertainty about the president’s intentions. Vice President JD Vance on Sunday claimed that the United States is not at war with Iran or is trying to defeat its leader. But on Sunday evening, Trump raised the possibility of mission creep and asked the truth socially. It was probably music to the ears of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The situation within Iran’s leadership remains unclear. The country was already in transition as the long rules of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei entered the sunset. But Israel dismantled Iranian regional power by crushing proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, and the US blow to its now nuclear aspirations could hamper unpredictable political forces.
When we loosen the control of a administrative regime, there will be benign leadership that the US and Israel prefer, and is unlikely to crave the more moderate Iranians than millions of them. Instead, political upheavals could lead to even greater domestic repression. And the signs of a state collapse can collapse in a country twice as large as Iraq, sending shockwaves throughout the region and around the world.
The latest invasion of America back to the Middle East has already brought deep political reactions back to home.
Top Republicans praised what they viewed as strength, clarity and boldness in Trump. However, despite his deep ties with his base, some influential right-wing influencers fear he can drive the Maga movement into a quagmire.
And the president with an authoritarian instinct, straining the rule of law and constitutional rule, using his power to punish his perceived enemies, led the United States into a potential new conflict of foreboding after ignoring the power of Congress without asserting the public.
This cascade of uncertainty in the aftermath of Trump’s strike highlighted that the US Bunkerbuster gave up full control of this new crisis as soon as it dropped it on the Fordow nuclear power plant.
Resolution of this conflict with Iran – the seats of civilizations covered in resentments of US colonialism, perceived as historical, sectarian, religious and political obstacles, are not as clean as the decision to send squadrons of B-2 bombers around the world to enforce the impulses of the American strong.
The next move probably belongs to Iran.
Depending on the state of the military after the days of Israeli airstrikes, Tehran has options. You can target vast US military bases and assets in the area. It could close the Strait of Hormuz and cause a global energy crisis. Missiles can be sent to the fields of US allies. It may attempt to set a terrorist attack on US interests in this region, or even in America’s homeland.
Each of these options has high risk. For example, it may be counterproductive for Tehran to close transport lanes that slow its own oil exports to its nominal ally, China and Russia.
However, each of these steps could also draw Trump deep and deep into a direct conflict with Iran and a full-scale war.
Vance told ABC News “this week” and that if Iran abandons its nuclear program “peacefully” it would be willing to find a partner in the US, but if it counterattacks the US military, it would encounter “overwhelming power.”
But the president, who has vowed to avoid a new war, sounds more and more belligerent.
In his social media post, which announced the strike on Saturday, Trump called on Iran to negotiate with the US on a complete end to its nuclear program. But his subsequent speech to the nation states, “There is either peace or tragedy in Iran, which is much larger than we’ve seen in the last eight days. Remember.”
Therefore, the possibility of deepening hostility seems serious. This is especially true because administrations defined for nearly half a century through resentment against the United States may recognize the existential need to demonstrate strength.
Still, Iran’s reliance on full war could provide an opening for the US or Israel to move into a regime decapitation strategy despite the serious risk of turning Iran into a failed state.
The exact state of Iran’s remaining nuclear capabilities will be the best issue in the coming days. General Dan Kane, chairman of the co-chief of staff, was far less bullish than Trump or Defense Secretary Pete Hegses in an immediate assessment of the outcome of Saturday’s attack.
A new combat damage assessment made by surveillance and other forms of intelligence can determine whether Trump orders follow-up raids that could exacerbate tensions.
Initial independent testing in the aftermath of the strike suggests that damage to one of three important sites (Isfahan, the target of US cruise missiles) is limited to ground structures. Unlike the other two Iranian facilities targeting the business, the B-2 bombers did not drop a huge “bunkerbuster” bomb at the Isfahan facility, sources told CNN.
“This is an incomplete strike,” said Jeffrey Lewis, an arms expert and professor at the Middlebury International Institute, who has carefully reviewed the strikesite’s commercial satellite imagery.
“If this is all there is what remains here. The entire 60% uranium stockpile was kept in a tunnel untouched by Isfahan.”
Himes warned that Iran may have moved concentrated uranium from Fordeau before the strike. “You’re highlighting the possibilities here – here, there are a lot of very rich uranium sitting under the crazy Hornet regime that decided that the only way to prevent this from happening in the future is to actually sprint towards nuclear weapons,” Himes said.
In that case, Trump would have created a threat to the US and Israel that will ring for years to come.
“I think the more interesting thing other than retaliation is a restructuring,” Richard Haas, president emeritus of the Foreign Relations Council, told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria. “What lessons did the Iranians draw? It’s very likely that they’ll decide that this would never have happened if they had nuclear weapons. So I think their retaliation could be relatively modest.
“So this may not be as clean as we think. This could actually unfold over many years, not just weeks and months.”
Meanwhile, Washington is already bustling with familiar glasses from all officials, experts and experts about why Trump acts, why the mission was successful, why Iran can do its best in its interests with a suppressed response.
But things are hardly that simple, as the long list of lost American wars in the late 20th and 21st centuries proves.