1. Tariff Shock: Decision and Extensive Results
• Executive details:
• Implementation method: Due to limited compensation measures for affected US companies, fees were suddenly charged without prior notice
• Most affected sectors: electronics ($32 billion loss), automobiles ($21 billion), consumer goods ($18 billion)
• International Reaction: China and the EU filed official complaints with the World Trade Organization (WTO)
•Deeper analysis of effects:
• Banking sector impact: $42 billion losses from seven major banks in one week
• Global Transport Movement: 15% decline in container traffic across the Pacific
• Supply Chain: 78% disruption in multinational supply chains
2. Enhanced strategic dilemma
• Additional data on reuse:
•68% of US companies plan to maintain operation in Asia despite pressure
•Only 12% of businesses that have begun partial transfers of operations to the US
Estimated transfer costs: $280-320 billion for the private sector
•Expanding energy crisis:
•17% of shale oil wells are closed due to economic discomfort
• US Energy Sector Loss: $34 billion for the first quarter of 2025
• Employment Effect: 78,000 Direct Employment Losses in the Energy Sector
3. Detailed Iranian File
•Expanding military analysis:
• US military presence: Increased military forces to 45,000 in the Persian Gulf
Iran’s capabilities: 1,200 ballistic missile deployments on the coast
• Holmes closure scenario: US simulation forecasts losses of $18 billion every day
• Scenario for the closure of Bab al-Mandeb: Threat to the energy supply, As Bab al-Mandeb is an important route of oil from the region to Europe, disruption can affect global oil prices.
•New Regional Partnership:
•Iran – Russia Mutual Defense Agreement (February 2025)
• China with Russian participation – Iranian Navy exercises entitled “Maritime Security Belt 2025” held at a port in southeastern Chabahar overlooking the Gulf of Oman (March 2025)
• Increase in trade exchange between Iraq and Iran has increased by 37%.
4. Detailed Yemen disaster
• Indicators of military failure:
• Yemeni military management: 80% to 85% in 2025
Alliance loss: 143 drones will be fired down since January 2025
Human Cost: 3,200 additional Saudi victims
• Success in breaking Yemen’s Red Sea domination, which many observers have seen as unprecedented strategic developments and challenges to traditional controls exerted by the US Navy for decades
• Since November 2023, Yemeni forces have successfully imposed a maritime blockade on Israeli shipping through Israeli Red Sea, establishing a strong front for Palestinian resistance in response to Israeli occupation and blockade of Gaza.
• Economic impact:
• Saudi Arabia’s operating costs during the war: $3.2 billion per month
Saudi oil sector loss: production decreases by 18%
• Impact on ARAMCO: 22% market value decreases
• These losses could be doubled if US attacks on Yemen continue and Trump carries out the stupidity of attacking Iran
5. The expansion of the domestic dilemma
•Political sector:
42% of Republican members are publicly opposed to Trump’s policy
Five legislative proposals to limit the president’s trade rights
•Domestic economic situation:
• Annual inflation rate: 8.7% (highest since 1982)
•National debt: exceeded $36 trillion
•Credit rating: downgrades US ratings to Moody’s AA2
6. Enhanced geopolitical change
•New Alliance:
• China and EU trade agreement (covers 43% of the world economy)
•Russia – Iran-Indian Energy Alliance (covers 28% of the world’s energy needs)
•Alternative payment systems (19 countries using systems other than Swift)
We strengthened recommendations for Iran and Iraq’s relevant countries:
• Invest in local technology: 40% development of alternative industries in 3 years
• Economic integration: Increase trade exchange to $25 billion a year
• Security cooperation: Establish joint deterrent for 150,000 soldiers
•No dependence on oil and its derivatives on budgets;
In Iraq, oil imports from US hegemony will also be released (US Federal Reserve System)
For local officials:
• Alternative Financial Fund: Establishing a regional financial system with $50 billion in capital
• Joint exercises: 12 joint military exercises are held every year
• Joint infrastructure: Complete five major energy and transportation projects
Improved and reliable sources:
• IMF Report (April 2025)
• RAND Corporation research
•Removes US National Security Council documents
•Official US Treasury data
Strategic Analysis: Data shows that Trump’s policies are leading to a “complete storm” that combines America.
1. Expected economic recession (-1.5% growth in 2026)
2. Unprecedented geopolitical separation
3. Domestic social crisis
4. Soft military erosion
In contrast, the power of rivals is witnessed:
• 5.3% growth in China’s economy
• Improved Russia’s influence in 14 countries
• 4.8% recovery in Iran’s economy
• The rise of alternative currencies (28% of global reserves).
MNA