London – “The (Israel occupation) groups are very small and need to be fattened,” a statement Trump made later in his election campaign. Netanyahu announced Project A at the United Nations, calling it the “New Middle East.”
Netanyahu believed that after successfully targeting the resistance leaders it was within reach. Trump was ready to support Netanyahu’s territorial expansion under the plan, but Plan A failed in the frontline villages in southern Lebanon.
Trump then moved to Plan B in the Middle East, ordering to end the wars in southern Lebanon and Gaza. Trump dislikes long-term conflict and despite his stubbornness, he finds that the entity cannot achieve victory. Instead of “fatting” entities through Plan A, Trump moved on to a strategy of emptying Palestinians from substance to manage Jewish demographics. He contacted the King of Jordan and the President of Egypt for this purpose.
Trump believes he can direct orders to these countries and implement “evacuation projects.” However, the possibility of relocating them to Jordan could lead to true instability and could even be subversive. So what America can do is encourage voluntary immigration. For this reason, they have sought to create an unbearable state in Gaza and the West Bank to support this purpose. However, the Palestinians have proven that they are immobilized in their land and will not leave regardless of the difficulties.
Trump’s new Middle Eastern strategy aims to save Israel from its current predicament. It includes official recognition of Israel in Saudi Arabia and establishment of diplomatic relations. However, this is the case for relationships that are from underneath the table above the table. Abraham’s agreement did not stop the attack on October 7th and proved that normalization did not change the equation. It has become clear that schemes and collaborators will not destroy Palestine.
In his imagination, Trump is trying to restore America’s unipolarity by controlling economic, rapid and dollar hegemony, in addition to sanctions. Trump’s plans envisage large investments in the Middle East. This includes leveraging “Mediterranean oil and beaches” to transform Gaza into a vibrant economic hub. Gaza is like “the New Hong Kong in the Middle East,” with American companies at the heart of it.
Additionally, Trump threatened BRICS countries from launching new currencies for trade, warning of 100% tariffs. Many BRICS-related countries, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are from Western Asia. He aims to separate Saudi Arabia as a financial force and Egypt as a consumer market from BRICS’s financial ambitions. Trump will also block China’s investment and Belt and Road initiative by ensuring a strong Western presence in the region.
The US and its companies could enter Syria for reconstruction and investment. Trump considers Syria’s new ruler to be terrorists. Syrian Plan A may consist of promoting a government consisting of individuals not labeled as terrorists. This includes bringing them through the Persian Gulf countries rather than Turkey. Once this transition is complete and a private, Persian Gulf-friendly regime is established in Syria, a peace agreement with Israel can continue. This Syrian government will likely be a product of Syria’s unrest and continued reconciliation. The country will remain virtually divided until full stabilization is achieved. Trump is unlikely to withdraw US troops unless they are under threat.
Syrian Plan B in the event of chaos and conflict continues could consist of Syria, where Syria is divided into four zones. It is a lawless and chaotic zone, with American and Israeli occupational organizations through the Kurdish military. The US zone is located in the Euphrates region, controlled by the Kurds, including Raqqa, Hasaka and Deiazole. The Turkish zone is completely controlled by Ankara, which covers Aleppo and Hama. Israeli occupational organizations will grow from Golan to Dara, affecting the areas they enter. Coastal Alawian regions could emerge, perhaps under French or Turkish supervision.
Regarding Iran, Trump will attempt to talk under American conditions. Negotiations take a long time and ultimately fail. If Iran has two different lines that wants to expel American imperialism from the region and the US wants to bring about a “change of government” in Iran, the parties will not unite, so the conclusion is that It will not reach it.
All Trump’s policies in this region are destined to collapse. He may consider a complete regional withdrawal and replace military presence with the greatest sanctions, diplomatic isolation and pressure on all parties related to Iran. However, this will only strengthen the alliance between China, Russia and Iran, significantly weakening US control in the region. Trump’s policies are not successful given that the elements needed to implement these policies are too large and out of control. There is also a local axis that strongly rejects these entire plans.