During Jordan’s quarterly rule of the century, King Abdullah had fewer work visits than this week’s trip to Washington.
Sitting nervously next to Donald Trump on Tuesday, the monarch was called the president’s plan for reporters to “take over” Gaza and the “ethnic assistance” plan by human rights groups, political leaders and political leaders. I almost watched in silence as I cried about what was there. Critics all over the world.
For weeks, Trump has insisted that Jordan and Egypt would take out Palestinians who were exiled as part of his plan to “own Gaza.”
Although Abdullah gave much in the presence of a volatile president, his position is well documented. That’s not the starter.
“The massive displacement of Gazan to Jordan will be a confession of the death of Jordan’s Hashemit monarchy,” said Andreas Krieg, assistant professor at King’s College, London’s Department of Defense Studies, in Middle East Eye. He spoke.
If Trump’s plans were implemented, it would significantly change Jordan’s demographic composition.
Approximately half of Jordan’s 11.5 million population is of Palestinian origin, with most of its families refuge during the Naqbah of 1948 or the Arabic catastrophe in which the Israeli state was founded and the war in 1967. did.
“Israel’s efforts to expel Palestinians to Jordan have expelled at least 750,000 Palestinians from their homelands,” said Anel Sherin, a former US State Department official who resigned from the Gaza War. It dates back to 1948.
“At the time, this tripled the population of Jordan and fundamentally changed the country’s identity.”
Jordanian politics expert Sean Yom said that the relationship between the TransJordanian tribes, sometimes known as the East Bankers, and Palestinian Jordanians, is “sensitious and still prone to inflammatory by identity politics on both sides.” I stated.
“There has been no obvious joint violence between the two for half a century, but the basic question about who belongs to Jordan, where they are “real” Jordanians and where political loyalty exists, is still this It depends on the relationship,” he told Me. .
The most cruel chapter of the civil war came to be known in 1970 in September when Hashemit rulers crushed Palestinian factions, who feared they had attempted to take over the state. It’s here.
“Demographic Attacks”
The idea of forcing Palestinians into Jordan has been emerging by Israeli officials for decades.
The slogan “Jordan is Palestine” was adopted by right-wing Israelis in the 1980s and falsely claimed that a Palestinian state existed along the eastern bank of the Jordan River, so another one on the occupied West Bank is not necessary. did.
Conspiracy theories continue to this day – far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders shared the phrase in November in a previous Twitter post.
Jordan stopped giving citizenship to the Jordan River in 1988, in order not to promote the idea of the kingdom as an alternative home for the Palestinians.
In fact, the 1994 Wadiaraba Treaty, which established diplomatic, tourism and trade relations between Israel and Jordan, contained articles banning mass transfers of the population.
“This article was inserted to protect Jordan from the threat of what is called “demographic attacks” – flooding with Palestinians from the Jordan River,” wrote extensively about the Hashemies of Jordan. He said to British and Israeli historian Avi Shuaim, Mee.
“The Palestinians are already the majority of Jordan. When they arrive in Jordan, a large number of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, they will further balance with the East Bankers and destabilize the kingdom.”
Schliment said that supporters of the “Jordan is Palestinian” mythology prefer to expel the Palestinians as part of their plans to turn the Kingdom of Hashemite into a “Palestinian Republic” and would incorporate the occupied West Bank into “Great Israel.” He said he likes.
“This is the biggest fear of the Jordanian regime,” the historian said.
Trump said that if Egypt and Jordan do not play the ball with his plan, we can withhold our aid in front of the King of Jordan.
Jordan receives at least $1.45 billion a year from the United States. This plays an important role in the funding development program. However, Amman officials said the kingdom would be willing to go without assistance if it was linked to the evacuation of Palestine.
“Jordanians need to maintain American support, but they cannot make sacrifices… they cannot sacrifice Palestinian self-determination,” Yom said. “They are willing to end the normalization treaty with Israel to prevent this – how is this an existential threat?”
Jordan was also the first Arab country to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States, which came into effect in 2001. The two countries hit $6.4 billion in goods and services traded in 2022. The 50 billion dollar mark. The US accounted for 23% of Jordanian exports and 5% of imports.
Although Jordan’s FTA has not been mentioned yet, the conflict with the US could threaten the agreement as Trump previously used the FTA as a negotiation tip in a previous dispute with his trading partner.
Yom added that Trump’s acquisition plan is a rare issue that links tribal communities, Palestinian refugees and monarchy.
“They oppose and protest virtually everything, including unemployment, corruption, oppression, but they are all standing in a unified voice in rejecting this plan.”
The threat of armed resistance
Since the war with Gaza began 16 months ago, Jordanian rulers have been under great pressure to do more to stand up to Israel.
The capital has seen major protests in the capital, including several other than the Israeli Embassy. Jordanian authorities concluded the rally and accused Hamas of causing domestic disruption.
Domestic criticism reached the head when Jordan fired down Iran’s long-range missile targeting Israel in April and October. The kingdom said it would not protect Israel, it would protect its own borders.
“The monarchy has been primarily thought to be complicit in protecting Israel from Iran’s attacks, as well as providing insufficient humanitarian assistance to Gazan,” Krieg said. .
In the background, he added that incorporating a large number of forced Palestinians would be considered “complete sold out and surrender” to Israel.
“This could lead to massive protests against the government and monarchy and an Arab Spring-style rebellion.”
In September, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, won the most votes in Jordanian parliamentary elections, driven by their stance on Palestine.
The IAF called on Jordan to withdraw from the 1994 Israel Treaty.
“If Israel pushes hundreds of thousands or millions of Palestinians into Jordan, King Abdullah could be forced to respond militarily (suicide against Israel and the United States) or be defeated, or could be defeated, if he were to take action in a militarily. “We’ll face it,” Sherin said.
“Whether it’s the Muslim Brotherhood or another political group that seized power in Jordan, Jordan’s general support for Palestine is likely to manifest itself in armed resistance to Israeli attacks.”
“Unlike the habit of shooting Israeli and Hezbollah rockets at each other, she said it could lead to open wars and cross-border attacks.
In the last few months, they have already been involved in violence three times.
The Jordanians killed three Israelis at the Allenby intersection near the West Bank border in September. A month later, an Israeli soldier was injured by a gunman entering from Jordan in the South Sea region. Then, in November, security forces shot and killed a gunman who injured a Jordanian officer near the Israeli embassy in Amman.
Krieg said the arrival of Palestinians from Gaza “often living as second-class citizens” a new class of Jordan’s existing diaspora community.
“The complaints will be radicalised and lead to Gazan resistance. They will use Jordan as a hub for operations against Israel,” he said.
“Jordan will be at the forefront of resistance, as has been the case many times throughout Israeli history.”
(Source: Middle Eastern Eye)