Macron declared his intention in a television interview on April 8th to take concrete steps to recognize the Palestinian state “in the coming months.”
In doing so, analysts say they are trying to demonstrate that Paris is a “more mature, trustworthy partner” than the increasingly isolated US under President Donald Trump.
“He is a young, ambitious politician and has a passion for taking up the mantle of the “free world leader” when the United States is withdrawing or destabilizing its Western alliance. Germany has destabilized Dithers about its own internal politics, and Britain deals with post-Brexit indifference.”
With this vacuum, the French president “sees like the most charismatic Western leader” who could lead the European Union to a future strategy “independent from Washington,” Marks said in Asia this week.
Supporting the Palestinian state “The signal to the world beyond Israel and the United States is that France is a more free global, global actor not seen by Washington’s preferences,” she said.
Macron has defended his return to negotiations to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for nearly 80 years. On April 7, he announced that Paris would co-host a UN conference on two-state solutions with Saudi Arabia in June. The French president argues that Israel’s long-term security lies in the establishment of a Palestinian state. This is a discussion in line with the position of other Arab states in the United States to unconditionally normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel.
To strengthen his position, Macron has cultivated a strategic partnership with Egypt, Riyadh, a key mediator of his efforts to end the Israel-Gaza War along with Qatar. During his visit to Cairo on April 6, he met Egyptian President Abdelfatta El-Sisi and King Abdullah of Jordan, reiterating his support for Egypt’s post-conflict reconstruction plan for Gaza and proposals for governance by reformed Palestinian authorities.
He also expressed his opposition to Trump’s controversial proposal for a Riviera-style resort in Gaza.
Since then, the US president appeared to betray his plans for relocation, but it was accepted as part of a push to Gaza and the West Bank, approved by several Israeli ministers, putting the Palestinian state’s prospects at even greater risk.
Narrow window for diplomacy
The push for French Palestine awareness comes at a critical time as it strengthens Israeli military action in the West Bank.
“The outlook for solutions for the two states will be even more difficult by that day,” said Souhire Medini, a French political analyst. She warned that Israel’s official annexation of the West Bank would make the Palestinian state “virtually impossible” and added that France’s call for action is “undetectedly linked to deteriorating circumstances.”
Moving towards the perception of the Palestinian state allowed France to “send a message” to the Middle East and the southern parts of the world that “the West is not united” behind the Trump administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, said Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Washington’s risk consultancy Gulf State Analytics.
He said Macron’s plan to recognize the Palestinian state “sits often with France and many other EU members.”
“France making this move will give this push a lot of momentum and make a big difference, at least from a symbolic perspective,” he said.
Paris “has had little direct impact on events in Gaza,” but its ability to coordinate with like-minded Western and Arab partners “makes more impactful to the French voice,” according to Medini, a visiting researcher at Washington Near East policy think tank.
“For many, the French decision to publish this decision in 2012 by voting in favor of the UN’s Palestinian non-member observer status, played a crucial role in garnering widespread support for the proposal, particularly from the EU countries,” Medini said.
If France expands its diplomatic awareness to the Palestinian state, it “causes a diplomatic domino effect that will in turn segregate the United States more and more,” Marks said if France expands its diplomatic awareness to the Palestinian state, it “includes other UN Security Council standing committee members.”
Against the backdrop of massive casualties in Gaza and Israeli invasions of Lebanon and Syria last year, Washington’s “stiff support for the Netanyahu government is not working with Gulf Arab leaders and their citizens,” Kaffiero said.
He said Washington’s Middle East policy contributed to the Gulf’s “all sense” of net drivers “a instability representing a threat to peace and security throughout the region.”
“It’s easy to see Macron’s efforts aim to send a message to the Gulf Arab countries that France is a more reasonable force to embrace a sensible approach to security issues in the Middle East,” Caffiero said.
Jeanloop Saman, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Studies Institute, said the French president would appeal to Gulf leaders who are keen to diversify the alliance by seeing Washington’s “isolationist/zerosum game mindset as an opportunity.”
Macron’s “third way” promotes strategic autonomy among middle forces that are seeking to stay entangled in US-China competition and “certainly appeals to countries like the UAE who want to reduce their dependence on the US,” Samann said.
This approach is consistent with France’s broader foreign policy apparent in Indo-Pacific strategies and partnerships, such as the France-Indowe Trilateral Initiative launched in 2023. Such mini-cerital partnerships aren’t about filling the void left by the US, but less about “Paris”‘s desire to play a global role.
Despite Macron’s assertive diplomacy, analysts warn against overestimating France’s influence in the region. “France is part of the equation,” Cafiero said, but despite regional dissatisfaction with American foreign policy, Washington cannot be replaced as the Gulf’s leading security guarantor.
Medini noted and agreed that Macron’s moves signal a commitment to balancing strategic partnerships and multilateralism.
Whether his efforts bring tangible results or remain a symbolic gesture, they reflect the president’s resolve to position France as a diplomatic heavyweight in an increasingly fragmented world.
Written by Islamabad-based journalist Tom Hussein.
Reissue: South China Morning Post (SCMP)